fallen behind Carol Mosley Braun in the polls!"
Posted on 12/22/2003 11:53:00 AM PST by PJ-Comix
ROCHESTER, N.Y., Dec. 22 /PRNewswire/ -- Howard Dean has established a
strong national lead over all other candidates for the Democratic candidates.
While the selection of the Democratic candidate will depend on the Iowa
caucuses and primary elections in New Hampshire and many other states, the
former Vermont governor has pulled ahead of all other candidates among
Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents nationwide.
The Harris Poll(R) finds that Dean is now the preferred candidate of 21%
of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, with a strong lead over
Senator Joe Lieberman (10%), who is in second place, and all the other
candidates.
These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 993 adults, of whom
393 were Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents, surveyed by telephone
by Harris Interactive(R) between December 10 and 16, 2003.
In the two months since an earlier mid-October poll, Dean has increased
his share of the vote from 11% to 21%, while Senator Lieberman has seen his
share decline slightly from 13% to 10%.
Below Lieberman on this list, four candidates are bunched together,
General Wesley Clark (7%), Congressman Richard Gephardt (7%), Al Sharpton (6%)
and Carol Moseley-Brown (6%). Senator John Kerry, who was once regarded by
some pundits as the strongest candidate is preferred by only four percent
(4%), with Senator John Edwards (3%) and Congressman Dennis Kucinich at the
end of the pack.
TABLE 1 2004 DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES HEARD OF (Among Democrats and Independents) "Which of the following Democratic presidential candidates have you heard of?"
Base: Democrats and Independents
October December 10-16 All Democrats All Democrats and & Independents Democratic- Leaning Independents
% % Joe Lieberman 81 85 Howard Dean 58 76 Al Sharpton 70 70 Richard Gephardt 68 67 John Kerry 63 65 John Edwards 50 58 Wesley Clark 53 52 Carol Moseley-Braun 44 43 Dennis Kucinich 30 27
NOTE: October 2003 poll did not separate the direction the Independents' political leanings.
TABLE 2 2004 Democratic Presidential Candidates - First Preferences "And which one of these would you prefer to be the Democratic candidate?" (Among Democrats and Independents)
Base: Democrats and Independents
October December 10-16 All Democrats All Democrats and & Independents Democratic- Leaning Independents
% % Howard Dean 11 21 Joe Lieberman 13 10 Wesley Clark 12 7 Richard Gephardt 8 7 Carol Moseley-Braun 5 6 Al Sharpton 5 6 John Kerry 10 4 John Edwards 4 3 Dennis Kucinich 3 1 Not sure 26 34
NOTE: October 2003 poll did not separate the direction the Independents' political leanings.
Methodology The Harris Poll(R) was conducted by telephone within the United States between December 10 and 16, 2003 among a nationwide cross-section of 993 adults (ages 18+). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults and number of voice/telephone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of +/-3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
About Harris Interactive(R) Harris Interactive (http://www.harrisinteractive.com) is a worldwide market research and consulting firm best known for The Harris Poll(R), and for pioneering the Internet method to conduct scientifically accurate market research. Headquartered in Rochester, New York, U.S.A., Harris Interactive combines proprietary methodologies and technology with expertise in predictive, custom and strategic research. The Company conducts international research through wholly owned subsidiaries-London-based HI Europe (http://www.hieurope.com) and Tokyo-based Harris Interactive Japan-as well as through the Harris Interactive Global Network of local market- and opinion-research firms, and various U.S. offices. EOE M/F/D/V To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to participate in future online surveys, visit http://www.harrispollonline.com.
Ketchup Boy-------------4%
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!
Cool, a battke between the two ends of the party. Could get nasty as Deaniacs hate Liberman.
Now that's embarassing. I'll bet he used the F-word a few times when he saw those numbers.
F*¢k!!
I don't find anything particularly surprising or relevant about Sharpton’s and Mosely-Braun’s numbers. My reasoning is that this is a poll of Dimocats, 95% of blacks are Dimocrats and 95% of blacks vote for blacks, hence the CMB and AS numbers.
Neither can win the nomination nor is it likely either stay in throughout the primaries, so those black votes will be spread among the “front runners.”
So, when you consider that blacks amount to about 13% of the population and 95% of the blacks vote black when given the opportunity…95% of 13% is 12.3 %...just about the cumulative total of the AS and CMB percentages, it just makes too much sense.
Of course I recognize one little fly in my logical ointment…that is how many of the participants in the poll know that AS and CMB are black?
He was onb a gunboat on the Mekong. A real life war hero type. He received a Silver Star, Bronze Star with Combat V, and three awards of the Purple Heart for his service in combat.
Perhaps one of the Purples was for a head wound ... it would explain a lot.
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