The 2004 Election is Over, Now

Special to FreeRepublic ^ | 11 November 2003 | John Armor (Congressman Billybob)

[Eastbound]

Good one! :->

[autoresponder]

          

[Prime Choice]

Ow. That really hurt my eyes.

Was there a point to it?

[GeronL]

Cool. I think your right on the money too.

[John Locke]

Actually, we should have learned that lesson on September 10, 1935.

But I agree - if the Wicked Witch really does intend to run in '04, then she isn't going to contest the primaries. If her own "stalking horse" doesn't make it, then the front runner will suffer an oh-so-tragic accident at the most opportune time. Just like John Kennedy.

[WOSG]

John Armor/ Cong billybob: Excellent analysis. IMHO, you do indeed paint the most likely scenario. One pundit explained that the 9 dwarves are running for the nomination, not the general election. And the platform for the Democrats is to take the unpopular parts of the Mondale campaign (raise taxes) and the McGovern campaign (peace at all costs) and put them together. A few things going for them now: first (as always) the media; second, uncertainty - comments on Iraq and economy are credible in a time of uncertainty. Those two 'advantages' IMHO become liabilities with this overly long campaign season. so many debates and all the candidates seem way too stale months before a vote is cast. both economy and Iraq will be measurably better in 9 months. And the media encouraging Democrat extremism just gives more fodder for Bush to use later; these guys are out on some serious limbs.

The funding gap that Dean can open up by forgoing the public financing will be make interesting politics in that it may finally be the end of public financing for serious candidates.

Wolfstar is right to suggest It aint over until its over. An early Dean win is a likely scenario, but a few other scenarios are possible.

Still, I am quite confident about a Bush win now that 3rd Q GDP growth came in so strong. It's clear that the economy is in growth mode, and moreover you can (and Bush will) make a strong case that tax cuts played a positive role in that. Furthermore, Iraq will *not* necessarily be the primary voting issue in nov 2004; by then the pacification will be further along, and it may revert to a more generic question "how to win the war on terror?". I am sure Bush wins hands down on that, and Rove is dusting off both the 1972 and 1984 playbooks on how to beat candidates that want to cave to our enemies *and* raise taxes.

McKinley: Interesting thesis that Dean wont win. I didnt know that "And he's not even in first or second in South Carolina." Maybe that is why he made his dumb comment, eh? IMHO, Gephardt is 2nd most likely candidate. And he could be a harder candidate to beat, mainly because he is not as looney. But we should also understand that the Democrat who can beat all comers in the nomination is by definition the hardest candidate to beat. I dont think there's a 3% candidate out there who could mount a better race against Bush than Dean.

Here's another scenario for you: Dean wins NH, Gephardt wins Iowa, the south gets split. Because so much of the states calendar is 'front-loaded' nobody gets a majority - and the Democratic nomination process drags out to the convention. This is IMHO a possible alternative to an early Dean KO, especially if Dean implodes. Delaying the nomination process would further hurt the Democrats.

I dont think Hillary will be the nominee. It simply wont happen, would prove how dangerously power-hungry that couple is if they tried; and if they actually wrestled the nomination prize from the poor 9 souls trudging through the snows of Iowa and NH for months, it would be a free gift for us in the GOP. She would run a late and likely disorganized campaign, while Bush and Rove and Co. could retool fast to any new opponent ... Bush would beat her and (hopefully) make her less electable in 2006 and 2008.

Lastly, what is also encouraging in 2004 is the favorable alignments on the Senate and House, thanks to TX redistricting.

ALL OF THE ABOVE IS AMPLE REASON TO WORK AND FIGHT HARD FOR REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES IN 2004! WE CAN MAKE THIS A "REALIGNMENT" ELECTION THAT DEFINES THE REPUBLICAN PARTY AS THE MAJORITY PARTY AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL - NOT SEEN SINCE THE 1920s!

By way of that, let's support John Armor aka Congressman Billybob for Congress! John, let me know if and when you announce for Congress. I was considering running for the 10th CD in Texas, but discretion is the better part of valor when the price tag is half a million, and 6 or more other GOP candidates jump into the open primary (safe GOP seat, but the primary is a tough race). The money I saved thereby can help a few others that need help to win. I'll support you with a few $$$ and ask others to do the same.

[RightOnGOP]

so what's your latest update on running for congress yourself? weren't you talking about that at some time in the recent past?

[Huck]

I hope Shrillary does run, so we can do away with this paranoia once and for all. She ain't all that. She won a senate seat in a freaking liberal state against a dunce. But if she's so freaking powerful and evil and clever, explain to me why a) her health care plan went down in flames b) the GOP took control of Congress c) Her husband was impeached d)her party got booted out of the white house?

I repeat: She ain't all that. You think America wants to look at or listen to that bitch for 4 years? Please. America's had enough of the Clintons. The only people who still want anything to do with them are a)the idiots in NY who voted for her b)DUmmies and C) conservative talk radio hosts on slow news days.

[William McKinley]

Yeah, SC has Edwards in first, Clark in second, and then the gaggle all in single digits. I am not even sure he is in third- I think he might be lower.

[Huck]

Having said that...the GOP doesn't have a candidate for 08. Bill Owen from Colorado?

[winker]

Bonesmen One & All; minus a skull and a brain to go with the ensemble!

[Zack Nguyen]

Excellent article, Congressman. What do you think of this? I spoke with Morton Blackwell very briefly several years ago, and I believe that he told me that Reagan could not have gained the nomination with the way primaries are structured today. Why not dump all your marbles in the first few states as Dean will do? Given the enormous number of high-delegate primaries run early, there are no "come-from-behind" victories ala Reagan in '76. Black voters now make up one-half of all Dem voters in the South. That is a very risky position to be in. The Dems depend utterly on a 10-1 turnout among blacks to have any chance at all.

[Zack Nguyen]

Better she sit in the cat bird's seat watching her competition destroy their credibility (with a little help from her friends of course) and descend at the last possible moment as the "savior" by Democratic Party mandate.

The smart move for Hillary is simply to watch the Democrat Party descend into electoral destruction in 2004, and then swoop in and be the savior in the wide-open 2008 race. There is no point for her to enter now just to get beaten.

Of course that requires Hillary to bide her time, and she may not be psychologically able to do it.

[Zack Nguyen]

The Dems have no chance whatsoever to even prevent a further loss of seats in 2004, much less regain control of either chamber.

That's right. A 5-7 seat gain in Texas due to redistricting sealed the deal. Unless of course the court throws out the map.

[Zack Nguyen]

PULL-EASE!!!!! Do not delude yourselves into believing that women will automatically vote for her. She is a disgrace to educated women, self respecting women, married women, stay at home women, single women,...shall I continue?

I agree, but electorally speaking Hillary, as a liberal women Democrat, stands to gain probably 45-50% of the married women vote. She will absolutely clean up the single woman vote, probably 2-1. This of course will be offset by a massive male vote to Bush, married and unmarried.

But will it be enough? In 2000, the Republicans didn't have a gender gap, they had a marriage-gap. Single-women went heavily for Gore, married women split Bush/Gore.

[Zack Nguyen]

she casually walks into the convention center at the last possible instant -- expecting palm leaves to be thrown in her path and a 'halleluja' choir to lift her onto a donkey to clip-clop down the isle.

LO> - funny way to put it.

[Congressman Billybob]

Click up the address shown in my tag line. That will give you the particulars on my plans regarding the 11th District of North Carolina (Western Carolina, up in the Blue Ridge). Let me know what you think after you've had a look-see at that.

John / Billybob

[CFC__VRWC]

He needs top two in each to avoid a collapse. He can lose to Gephardt in Iowa, no big deal, but two second place finishes would be far from a victory.

I just can't see Dean not winning NH at this point. He has 40 percent of the NH primary vote locked up right now - in a field of nine, that is a staggering majority. Obviously anything can happen between now and primary day, but it would take a stupendous, almost unprecedented crash-and-burn on Dean's part to lose NH now. Kerry's is Dean's closest NH competitor, and he's had weeks to try and close the gap. Instead, he's steadily being left further and further behind.

I'm still putting my money on Howard Dean winning the nomination, because right now he's far and away the best Captain Ahab. All the other dwarves are cheap posers in comparison. And that's what the Democratic Party wants now, a Captain Ahab who will take all of their bile and irrational hatred for George W. Bush and "shoot his heart upon it."

[Congressman Billybob]

Please do not wait until I "declare" for office to help out, or to encourage others to help. If too many people take that position of wait and see, I won't get to declare at all. Here's why:

Like you, I've taken a clear-eyed look at what is necessary to run a serious campaign for Congress. Mine is a low-cost District (only one city, only two TV stations, etc.). So I reach the same conclusion that about $600,000 is necessary. But unless I have a good start on that when it is time to declare (February 27th at the latest), I should not declare at all.

It takes people as well as money to run a competent campaign. I'm working hard now to assemble a good start toward the 2,000+ in-District volunteers that I need.

So, please do what you can NOW, since without that from a fair number of people, there cannot be a THEN. Fair enough?

John / Billybob

[Congressman Billybob]

Kerry and both Bushes are Bonesmen (members of the secret society, "Skull and Bones," for those not familiar with the phrase). Lieberman and I are not Bonesmen.

John / Billybob