Posted on 10/15/2003 7:44:43 PM PDT by Dog Gone
The Pennsylvania case does determine the outcome of the Texas redistricting in the courts, and the only other suspense is whether the Supreme Court will hasten its decision in that case to accomodate the Texas situation.
The Supreme Court has ruled separately that viewpoint-based discrimination is a 1st Amendment violation, but has never extended that to political redistricting. Since the a number of the amici in Vieth raise that issue, the potential exists for the Supreme Court to rule on that basis instead of or along with the majoritarian principle which is the crux of the appellant's argument. That email from Rep. Barton's aide (along with a number of additional circumstances) makes this process especially susceptible to any ruling on that basis (or on the basis of subjugating traditional reapportionment principles).
Justice Kennedy is very much a wild card insofar as the eventual Vieth v Jubelirer decision, having never established any precedent on which to speculate his position on the matter. However, the following excerpt which is part of Kennedy's concurrence in U.S. Term Limits v Thornton provides insight for conjecture:
Nothing in the Constitution or The Federalist Papers, however, supports the idea of state interference with the most basic relation between the National Government and its citizens, the selection of legislative representatives.
That entire concurrence is indeed one of the more revealing opinions Kennedy has ever issued, and is worth reading not only as regards the forthcoming Vieth ruling but also due to its intriguing legal construction of its own accord. In any event, Kennedy's remarks from that opinion are cited in the Vieth v Jubelirer briefs as well. Finally, Sandra Day O'Connor is just as unpredictable, but for altogether different reasons (she's just inherently unstable in her legal reasoning..)
What do ya-all think?I think the 'RATS are toast ! But I always think that ! lol !
There are so many variables, apparently, it's hard to tell. But I think we've got a new map, with the only question being is whether it gets used first in 2004 or 2006 ...
[See the orange text below. I wonder if the Revrund is really gonna bring in the rent-a-mob crowd ??]
10-09-2003
Democrats in Congress unhappy with Redistricting
(Goodbye, Martin Frost)
10-14-2003
Governor signs redistricting bill -
'RATS expected to take dispute over minority issues to court
The Rev. Jesse Jackson called the redistricting an affront to the Voting Rights Act of 1965."We must be prepared to go back to mass demonstration to diminish the effects of this," he said.
10-12-2003
Texas Redistricting - Senate [PASSES!] new redistricting !!!
10-10-2003
GOP's legislative map up for vote
10-09-2003
Texas Redistricting map now online
(link is in thread)
FR Search: Keyword "Redistricting"
hehe ! Okay. G'night ...
Well, it won't be included with the Balderas motion, since that is front of the three-judge panel that drew the map in 2001. If that panel refuses jurisdiction, it certainly makes sense to combine all the suits into a single action at the District Court level.
Which court that would be is unclear, although the Tyler court did receive the suits before the Victoria court did.
I still think there's a chance that the three-judge panel in Laredo could end up with the case, but it's less likely as time passes. If the Republicans had quickly filed a motion before that court seeking a declaratory judgment that the map does not violate the VRA, the odds would have been higher.
My guess is that a District Court will hear the challenges first.
The wild card is Jubelirer, though, and the Supreme Court is going to clarify the rules and possibly set new ones.
Unfortunately, Jubelirer is not a favorable fact situation, and it's easy to have the suspicion that the Supreme Court took the case to overturn the ruling that the Pennsylvania map is legal. That would certainly increase the chances that the Texas map will have to be redrawn.
Would you elaborate on the Burton aide email and the special cirumstances when you have time? Sorry to hear about the illness of your friend. Take care.
The email presents an overview of all the new districts (with some trivial inaccuracies) of which the most relevant comments are those involving districts 24 and 26. As described at Political State Report, "the email is notable for the blunt way in which it addresses the way in which minorities were shunted from district to district, squeezing them out of districts to favor republicans where the vote was close, or else putting them into overwhelmingly republican districts where their voting power would be diluted."
This email alongside additional circumstances - Rep. DeLay's involvement, statements by GOP legislators regarding their overtly partisan intent, the subordination of 'traditional' districting principles (most notably communities of interest and protecting incumbent seniority) - leave no doubt as to motivations underlying the process. As one might imagine, this is a fairly key aspect toward establishing the factual circumstances upon which any challenges might be decided (it also closely parallels the 2002 Pennsylvania process, BTW).
As alluded, the Supreme Court has ruled previously (most prominently in a ruling involving employment discrimination against Republicans in West Virginia) that political viewpoint-based discrimination is prohibited by the First Amendment. As mentioned, the Supreme Court has never extended this doctrine to the redistricting process, and it's by no means assured that it will ever do so. My point in citing the memo and alluding to these other factors is simply that in the event that the Vieth v Jubelirer ruling is based in any part on that basis, the Texas mapping process is particularly susceptible.
More likely in my opinion, the maps will be struck down for a combination of racial gerrymander and minority retrogression. The map is vulnerable to such a reversal in several respects which are most easily reviewed in the brief filed challenging the maps. There is also the Article I issue of re-redistricting as well as the partisan gerrymander challenge pursuant Davis v Bandemer also covered in this challenge that may potentially lead to an overturning of these maps. The one element where this map does not appear vulnerable is the majoritarian principle which provides the crux of the Vieth challenge.
My basic point is that any court inclined to favor the Democrats will have no problem identifying sufficient grounds to strike down this process.
This map diminishes the number of congressmen that the Democrats will elect. That's indisputable, but not surprising. What's also indisputable is that the map, as a whole, creates more minority opportunity districts, and that more minorities will represent Texas (and be Democrats, too) under this new map than under the old one which Democrats created.
Minorities do not get a bad deal under this map, unless you adopt the Democrats' apparent argument that all minorities have the constitutional right to be represented only by Democrats.
I don't personally believe that minorities get the shaft under this map; I'm just assessing how I think this challenge may fit into the jurisprudence both in Texas (Bush v Vera) as well as nationwide. In my personal view, the redistricting process should be blind to both race and party - basically determined by either nonpartisan commissions or bipartisan committees. That's not currently the case, however, and I don't know whether this Tyler court which issued the 2002 maps (where the challenge has been filed) is actually favorable to Democrats per se or just abided by the 'least-change' principle in issuing those maps. The general impression conveyed in media reports is that the court itself favors the Dem arguments, and if that's the case I simply think that there's more than enough room for interpretation to overturn the maps.
If it were up to me, I would reject the Voting Rights Act argument (in fact, I would strike down substantial parts of the Voting Rights Act itself as unconstitutional).
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