“. . .Michelle Obama: She (he?) has zero experience running for office and is ugly as sin and won’t play well on TV. Plus the country is sick of the Obamas, that’s why we elected Trump.”
If Michelle runs, she will be a proxy for Valerie Jarrett who ran Barack Obama’s White House. Ms. Jarrett lives with the Obamas in their DC home. Should Michelle be elected she will be a figurehead with Jarrett as the real power behind the throne.
Trump currently stands to realize a higher percentage of the black vote in 2020 than he did in 2016, thanks to sentencing reform and the economy. However, Michelle on the ticket changes the dynamic. Michelle assures both an extraordinarily high black turnout, she also assures a 95% black vote for the Democrat ticket up and down the ballot. With Michelle running the black turnout along may be significant enough to shift the White House, hold the House, and shift the Senate. Barack’s second term victory shows the dynamics of the black vote.
Michelle is extremely popular among the Democrat base and the media. She will have 24/7 positive media coverage. Any negative statement Trump makes about her or her husband will be interpreted by the media as a racist statement and turn into a several day media spectacle. The media will parade GOP pundits and politician before the people who will condemn the Trump statement (Romeny, Ryan, Kasich, a number of GOP Congressmen and Senators). This will not be about switching conservative GOP base voters, this will be about ensuring a high turnout of non-white voters.
The parade of GOP pundits and politicians condemning specific Trump statements will be about keeping support for Trump tepid from the GOP members of Congress. If GOP members of Congress are running at a distance from Trump, like they did in 2018, there is much less chance for the GOP to retake the House and hold the Senate. 2020 will be Trump’s last campaign. If he loses, members of the establishment don’t want to be perceived as pro-Trump for their own careers since the RINO’s will take charge after a Trump loss. If Trump squeaks out a win, he will be gone in 4 years and demographic trends will make the electorate even more pro Democrat. No one in the GOP today is positioned to be the Trump of 2024. It will be a repeat of the 1988 race when George H.W. Bush followed Reagan into office, rooted the Reagan conservatives out of positions of power, and promptly returned to business as usual. Pence will do the same. Certainly no GOP leader today will stand up to the media, much less the Democrats in Congress, the way Trump does.
Young people will not vote against Michelle due to school lunches which will be a distant memory. They have been indoctrinated in the public school system (not to mention universities). They lean socialist, are concerned about climate change, and will gladly cast a ballot for a person of color. Their electronic devices will be constantly inundated with a stream of pro Michelle, anti Trump messages thanks to Google, Facebook, Twitter and the rest of the tech companies going all-in to elect her. Those same tech companies will be doing everything they can to limit Trump’s message getting across social media.
Trump’s biggest accomplishment is the strong economy. You can bet on a carefully timed financial collapse in 2020, just like there was one in 2008. It will be timed to put fear in the hearts of independents, seniors, and women just before ballots are cast. The media will work with the Democrat candidate to amplify the fear message to specific swing voter groups. The Democrat candidate will be portrayed as the savior and only hope. Michelle will promise to bring back the same policies Barack used to bring us out of the 2008 depression. Michelle will be portrayed as the “safe” choice.
Michelle’s inexperience will be a non factor. The electorate voted in masses for her husband whose resume was devoid of accomplishments. Barack will spend the entire campaign talking about Michelle’s involvement, as a behind the scenes advisor, in every decision during his 8 years in office. The media will portray her as the most qualified person to ever run for the office. Again the “safe” choice.
I agree, and suggest a McAuliffe/Michelle ticket, due McAuliffe’s money.
Lot of words for a would-be candidate who said she won’t be a candidate.
Thought this article was about Lewandowski’s 2020 election prediction.
Liking and feeling it. Now it’s time to work and make it happen.
I think you accidentally drank the Kool-Aid.
While I appreciate that you took the time to type all that out, none of it is even slightly convincing towards the end of claiming M.O. is a formidable potential candidate.
Regarding the black vote, it’s not a swing voting bloc. The only way this voting bloc can make a difference in outcome is if they abandon the Democrats. If they don’t, it’s situation normal. 100% of the upside with any changes to the black vote belongs to the GOP.
Media bias... another given. Another thing already dialed up so high in Dem-favoring bias there’s no more upside for them here. They’ve already got 100% o the positive coverage and 100% negative coverage of GOP opponents. There’s no more growth room in this sector for the Dems either.
Same goes for RINOs - they already exposed themselves opposing Trump the first time around, they have no credibility the second time around. This is an empty quiver.
All the factors you cite are environmental constants that have little or nothing to do with who the actual Democratic candidate is.
So the only thing left in the argument presented is the illusion that M.O. is somehow grassroots-popular. There is little no non-subjective evidence available to make that case.