Posted on 09/22/2016 1:19:26 PM PDT by Sybeck1
Survey also shows written-off GOP senator trailing by just 2 points
Republican Donald Trump is within 6 points of Democrat Hillary Clinton in President Obamas home state, a poll released Wednesday suggests.
The survey by Emerson College, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, shows Clinton leading Trump 45 percent to 39 percent in Illinois. The states Democratic challenger for the Senate, Rep. Tammy Duckworth, leads incumbent Republican Mark Kirk by 2 points. That is closer than other polls; most observers consider Kirk the most endangered incumbent senator running for re-election this year.
The survey found similar results in the presidential race in Wisconsin, with Clinton leading 45 percent to 38 percent.
Spencer Kimball, who conducted the polls, said the results fit a familiar pattern he has seen in other states Clinton continues to struggle with voters who backed Sen. Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries and caucuses. In Illinois, only 53 percent of Sanders voters said they would vote for Clinton. Trump, meanwhile, has the support of 60 percent of the voters who cast ballots for Sens. Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio in the primary. Clinton gets less than 7 percent of Rubio and Cruz voters.
"Cruz and Rubio supporters have basically come home, or they're going to [Libertarian Gary] Johnson," Kimball said. "They're not going to Clinton."
Obama carried Illinois by 17 points in 2012, and a Loras Collage poll released this week gave Clinton a 13-point lead in the Land of Lincoln. Loras pegged Duckworth's lead in the Senate race at 5 points.
Kimball said he still expects Clinton to win Illinois but the 6- and 7-point margins in states where a Republican has not won Electoral College votes since 1988 and 1984, respectively, further illustrate how much larger the electoral map may be this election.
Kimball said for Trump to actually win Illinois or Wisconsin, he would have to both hope Clinton fails to close the deal with skeptical Sanders supporters and peel votes away from Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein. In the Emerson poll, he took 15 percent of Sanders voters in Illinois, while 15 percent went to Johnson and 12 percent preferred Stein.
"The more those voters go to Johnson and Stein, the better Clinton does," he said.
Kimball said support for third-party candidates that shows up in pre-election polls tends to melt away by the time voters actually cast ballots. If that happens, he said, Clinton is more likely to benefit.
A similar dynamic is at work in the Senate race, Kimball said. He said the 2-point margin is mainly due to the fact that 11 percent of respondents said they would vote for someone else and an additional 9 percent were undecided. The Libertarian and Green Parties both have candidates on the ballot, but neither is well-known or well-funded. He said the fundamentals favor Duckworth she has a 37 percent favorable rating, compared with just 27 percent of voters who approve of Kirk.
"Kirk's in a bad place," Kimball said.
The Wisconsin Senate race looks even bleaker for the GOP. Incumbent Republican Ron Johnson trails former Sen. Russ Feingold by 10 points.
"That Senate race looks like Feingold will pick it up," he said.
I've told several people that I am not voting this year, mostly because I don't want to get into a conversation about politics with anyone unless I'm sure they are Trump supporters. The nastiness surrounding the anti-Trump people is something I've never seen before. And I'm not going to try to change people's minds; it's just easier to avoid a confrontation.
I think there are a lot of "not voting" people that will vote for Trump.
Rahm should be toast in Chicago.
If blacks get their act together they can own the city of chicago mayor position for along time.
OMG. That would be great and "send-off" has the same amount of letters I think it would really say.
True dat. I'd like to see NO TOTALS reported until after the big metropolitan areas report.
'You first', as it were.
Move the Capitol to Ill. ALL the government workers can concentrate in a state that’s already blue. Won’t have to worry about neighbor states like Virginia. Put it smack dab in the middle of the state!
Yep. My 22yo son leans conservative, but his friends are average millennials. He says he doesn’t know anyone who isn’t voting Trump.
imho Hillary’s best option is to cancel the debates. she just doesn’t have a chance against trump.at best they’ll show that trump is the better man. at worst they’ll show hillary cracking under the pressure
Funny thing is, if Trump gets a landslide and takes states like Illinois, he will probably end up saving Kirk's seat.
Vote Trump!
Mark Kirk is really just a Democrat with an R on his chest. But he is our Democrat and if he wins in November the Senate will very likely be out of reach for the Dems.
Hellary’s campaign is on the verge of complete collapse. A knock out victory for Trump in the debates and we are looking at a landslide of 40+ States
How about - no thanks!
Cut IL in half, and let southern IL be Southern Illinois.
With the exception of heavily university-influenced Jackson county, and economically depressed Alexander county, where Cairo is located, we will go Trump.
Come on Chiraq. Riot, I know you want to.
IL is probably a lost cause. But I really want to see Trump to take WI and MN.
Ditto. I live downstate and there are very few signs out for any candidate of any party. Probably spending the money on social media ads..
There are two more US senate candidates one from the Conservative Party and the other Libertarian on the Illnois ballot. Be interesting to see what they do.
There are two more US senate candidates one from the Conservative Party and the other Libertarian on the Illnois ballot. Be interesting to see what they do.
I live in Orland Park and see a few Trump signs but no Hillary signs. My neighbor has a Hillary for Prison sign which makes me smile.
I believe suburban Cook County COULD go Trump. DuPage, where I am, MIGHT go Trump too. Chicago I don't see going Trump. The big question is can the rest of the state offset Cook County Chicago.
I have stated for a while that IL could be a surprise... Not that I am predicting Trump will win there, but with Rahm’s complete fustercluck there and a generally unappealing candidate, turnout in Chicago could wind up depressed to a point where it won’t overwhelm the enthusiastic support for Trump throughout the rest of the state.
Again, not predicting a Trump win there, but the perfect storm of Rahm’s ineptitudes and alienations combined with Hillary’s absolutely non existent inherent support or enthusiasm could indeed wind up with a depressed turnout in Chicago to a point where it won’t overwhelm the rest of the state.
I am not predicting this will happen, just saying I would not be shocked if it did happen.
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