Posted on 10/27/2012 8:23:14 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
With just 10 days to go until election day 2012 finally arrives, President Obama and Mitt Romney are in the final sprint, and the latest presidential polls reveal the race is a dead-heat. According to Gallup's daily tracking polls, Romney leads 50 to 47. According to Washington Post/ABC, Romney leads 50 to 47, including a national lead of 9 points on who would better handle the economy (52 to 43).
President Obama has long been considered the favorite to win election 2012, but these starting numbers beg the question: Could Romney actually win this thing? In short, the answer is yes.
It can be extremely difficult to sift through all the polling data, because depending on who you ask, Obama is winning or losing. That is, political biases very much shine through in analyses of who's winning. For example, NY Times' Nate Silver gives Obama a 73% chance of winning and argued on Friday that the move toward Romney has "stopped." Silver said, [W]e can debate whether Mr. Obama has a pinch of momentum or whether the race is instead flat, but it’s improbable that Mr. Romney would have a day like [Wednesday] if he still had momentum." Meanwhile, just hours later, ABC's Gary Langer countered that Romney has all the momentum in the race, "[T]he momentum on underlying issues and attributes is Romney’s. Romney’s gains are clear especially in results on the economy."
Rather than look at what the media is saying about each candidate, then, it is instructive to investigate what each campaign is saying about their chances. According to Politico's Playbook with Mike Allen, Romney's political director Rich Beeson has said this about Romney's strategy and chances: “Florida is like an aircraft carrier: Once you start turning it, it's hard to stop, and it's been turning now for about the last 10 days. … We're ahead of where we were in '08, and … our Election Day turnout is going to be very strong." Romney camp is confident that Republicans can pull it together in the key swing states.
Beeson said, “Virginia is a lot like Florida: It's starting to head the right direction. ... We're holding our numbers in Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William. We will win Loudoun and Prince William counties. Then, as you go down to Hampton Roads and Virginia Beach, those Obama defense cuts are really starting to undermine him." He continued, "New Hampshire, … we were tied there before we went and bought the TV, and [are] going up with a heavy, heavy radio buy. … Wisconsin is a tie. There's no two ways about it, and the good news for us there is where we have room to grow is, the further north and the further west you go, those places where we cut up Santorum in the primary, we can still get some Republicans to come home. Nevada has been the toughest nut for us to crack, but having said all of that, we're still within a couple of points in Nevada. I think it was two weeks ago that people were asking if we were going to have to pull out of Ohio, and now … it is a tie in Ohio … [T]hey're counting party registration as a vote for them."
Clearly, the Romney team is banking on Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire to win the election, and they realize they are likely to lose Nevada.
Meanwhile, Obama campaign manager Jim Messina had this to say earlier this week about the Obama strategy and chances, "We are outperforming our early vote margins in key states, compared to 2008. We’re ahead of where we were against McCain, and more importantly, we’re ahead of Mitt Romney. Romney may be winning more raw votes than McCain did at this point, but … the numbers tell a very clear story. The electorate is bigger this year, and our vote margins are, too. ... In fact, more people are going to vote early this cycle than in 2008. And more of them will vote for President Obama in the states that will decide this election.
"Romney hasn’t been unable to knock us out of a single battleground, but we’ve forced him to continue to spend significant resources in states like North Carolina that the Romney campaign said they wanted locked up a long time ago. By contrast, we’ve gotten him to pull resources out of states like Michigan, Pennsylvania … and New Mexico. … The Romney campaign has bet that young people and minorities won’t turn out. The early vote numbers are already proving the folly of that gamble, and the wisdom of our plan. "Minority voting is going to reach an all-time high this year, projected as high as 28% of all voters in the ’12 Election. Most new registrants over the past three months are under 30, and nearly all—four in five—are youth, women, African American or Latino. … [T]hese are all groups that strongly support the President’s re-election."
The President's campaign is clearly banking on the youth and minority vote in order to secure relection for Obama.
What's clear here is that several key states are very much at play in this election, and Obama is not clearly winning in any of them. The race will come down to the wire. Take each tracking poll with a grain of salt and don't believe the media bias in favor of either candidate. This election could be historically close.
Ain’t it funny how, when a Republican is leading in the polls “he has a real shot at victory” but if a Democrat were in the same position it would be an absolute lock, already declared the winner?
In a SANE and MORAL America, Romney would get 85% of the vote!!
I find it shocking that the guy leading in nationwide polls has an actual chance at winning. Who would think that could be possible.
Nate Silver gives Obama a 73% chance of winning and argued on Friday that the move toward Romney has “stopped.”
If Romney pulls this off, I’ll need a split screen TV to monitor all the Mainstream Shadenfreude.
If minorities truly do make up 28% of the electorate this year, we have lost and will never win another Presidential election again.
That said, it seems to me that number is about 7 or 8 points too high.
Obama is still leading from behind.
Seriously, the Left (media) would not fluf polls to Romney’s advantage. Polls showing Romney ahead encourage GOP voters and discourage the dead voters from showing up.
Romney has hit 50% in every meaningfull poll, with Barry stuck at 47% (familiar #). If these numbers were reversed, the media would already be calling this election for Obama.
I’m sticking with my 330 EC victory prediction. Total blowout.
When the media starts changing their stories to “a need for a coalition government of moderation, no matter who wins”, we will know that they have totally thrown in the towel.
Along with the burning of certain neighborhoods and riots.
It will definitely be entertaining.
If Romney were to have won Ohio, Virginia, and Florida before the polls closed in Nevada, that could cause some Democrats to go home (just like Carter’s early concession in 1980 was thought to have depressed Democrat numbers in western states where the polls were still open). But of course the media will delay calling any states for Romney as long as possible. Maybe before the polls close in Hawaii they will admit he has won Alabama and Mississippi with Indiana and Kentucky still too close to call.
WTF is wrong with Nevada??
“Nevada has been the toughest nut for us to crack, but having said all of that, we’re still within a couple of points in Nevada.
WTF is wrong with Nevada??”
California fallout. After liberals ruined that state, they move here to Las Vegas to pee in our pool. Clark County has gone blue over the years. Lots of retirees move here to avoid state income taxes. They keep on voting Democratic .... slow learners, I guess. Also, Harry Reid and his union cronies have a GOTV program second to none.
A 5% gap will lead to 300+ EV's.
True
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