Posted on 12/20/2007 3:10:51 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Seven major pollsters issued new national numbers for mid-December, after the last Republican debate in Iowa, which was hosted by the hostile Des Moines Register which is for the record, endorsing the Hillary Clinton campaign. An overall average of these seven polls is below. With Fred Thompson running 5th with only 11.3% support nationally, can Thompson really win the RNC nomination and if so, how?
Can Fred Thompson Surge?
The "front-runners:" Mayor Giuliani has been running the longest. He has peaked in the 20’s several times now, only to slide in the polls immediately after. He should be running strongest in the north, yet he is showing poorly in both Iowa and New Hampshire. His campaign is currently in a free-fall that he is unlikely to survive long term.
The message from Iowa voters is hard to mistake. Republican voters are looking for a social conservative, as well as a national security and fiscal conservative. This was always going to be a major problem for the Giuliani campaign and it’s showing up in early primaries already.
Mike Huckabee is enjoying a meteoric rise in popularity in Iowa and to some degree, nationally. But once again, some of his past liberal social policies haunt him and his current liberal social positions, in particular concerning illegal immigration, will soon cause his star to fade. He is likely to fall from grace faster than he rose from obscurity. The current “compassionate conservative” residing in the White House is unpopular with almost 70% of Republicans. Huckabee is even more compassionate towards leftist notions than Bush. That spells trouble ahead for the Huckabee campaign.
McCain is as far as he can go. His push for amnesty will not be forgotten or forgiven among conservative voters and his rhetoric demanding civil rights for terrorists might resonate with Code Pink types, but it will never buy a single conservative vote. I’ll get to Romney in a minute…
The bottom tier: Tancredo is about to drop out of the race today due to a lack of money and support. Hunter can’t be far behind. Although both men represent strong conservative values and principles, you can’t run a national campaign on empty for very long. This is a financial reality that can’t be overcome.
Keyes recent entry is completely rhetorical. He wants to make a point and his point is well taken. But his campaign is nothing more and a non-factor in the big picture.
Ron Paul continues to raise money from across the political aisle on the basis of his anti-war rhetoric alone. But the money continues to not translate into votes. He remains at or below 5% support nationally, most of it coming from outside of the Republican Party. He will stay in the race so long as people are sending money. But his campaign remains dead in the water. By the convention, his “republican” supporters will have to choose between helping the Democrat nominee or the Republican nominee.
10.4% Undecided: Nobody knows for certain what these folks are looking for. But whatever it is, they have yet to see it in any of the Republican candidates. I suspect that many are simply waiting for the over-crowded field to narrow so that they can get a closer look at the real candidates. These folks can decide the ultimate nominee.
Coming endorsements that can make a huge difference
Tom Tancredo is expected to announce his withdrawal from the race today. Even though he has only .6% support nationally, who he decides to endorse can make a big difference. The same goes for Hunter and his 1.3%. In looking at who these two conservatives are most likely to endorse, Thompson is the most logical answer.
Both of these men are running on very strong border security. This alone makes it all but impossible for either of them to ever endorse Giuliani, Huckabee or Romney due to their past records on illegal immigration issues. McCain’s position on amnesty for illegals and civil rights for terrorists, make it equally unlikely that either of these men could endorse him.
This leaves the only true conservative in the race, Fred Thompson. If both men endorse Thompson, look for their supporters and some of those undecided voters to shift behind the Thompson campaign in short order.
If and when McCain pulls the plug on his campaign, he is also most likely to endorse his long time friend Fred Thompson.
These three endorsements alone have the power to make Thompson the new front-runner nationally, even if Rudy and Romney hold their current positions, which is increasingly unlikely.
If these men decide to withhold their endorsements for a bit, they can keep the picture murky. But in the end, it is hard to imagine them endorsing anyone but Thompson, based upon their own policy positions and their alignment with Thompson.
Mitt Romney: Romney has raised and spent more money than any other Republican candidate and until very recently, he was stuck at or below 10% support nationally. Much of his new support is coming from people who once supported Giuliani. Yet some of his early supporters have already defected to Huckabee.
In short, Romney’s support is very volatile. In fact, main stream Republicans, even those who have polled for the top tier candidates for months, continue to shift around from perceived “front-runner” to the “front-runner” of the week. The top four are secure as only the top four. But who in the top four will ultimately emerge as the nominee remains totally fluid.
The question is this - will social conservatives continue to hold their ground? If they do, Thompson wins.
Thompson in Iowa: A third place finish in Iowa has always been seen as a major victory for Thompson, by both the Thompson campaign and political experts. But if his current campaign blitz across Iowa is even moderately successful over the next two weeks, he could actually surprise many of those experts with a stronger Iowa finish.If this happens, those three key endorsements come even easier.
A Four Man Race: The Republican race has always a four man race and it very much remains so today. One of four men will be the RNC nominee, Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee or Thompson.
The press is at least 70% behind Democrats. When reporting on the Republican race, they lean heavily in favor of the moderates, Giuliani, Romney and Huckabee. Even FOX News, which I refer to as the RINO Network, has repeatedly demonstrated hostility towards the candidate Rush Limbaugh calls “the only conservative in the race,” Fred Thompson. Thompson himself openly accused FOX of ignoring his campaign in favor of the moderates.
Based on all the facts at hand, it is inconceivable that Thompson won’t experience a major surge over the next six to eight weeks, as the campaign field begins to thin and voters begin to look closely at the four major contenders.
In the end, a Two Man Race: I predict that the Republican race will ultimately narrow to only a two man race between Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney. Romney “looks” Presidential. But Thompson “is” Presidential. That’s not only my opinion, it’s a fact…
Romney calls himself a conservative, but Thompson is a conservative. This is also fact, not opinion. So, if conservatives are working to nominate the most Presidential conservative in the Republican race, Thompson is the likely winner. Can it happen? Thompson seems to be counting on it!
Watch Iowa closely…
Seems to be relevant argumented analysis beside many wishfull thinking or repetitions or biased information seen from France...It’s exciting! Hope Fred will rise despite the MSM for all the reasons you mentioned.It would be a great victory
Obviously we have no guarantees, but the race is far from over and it’s well worth fighting for. I agree that it would be a great victory for conservatives and a sweet one.
I think he could surge, but I don’t think this is how it will happen. For a brief time this last summer, the race was Thompson’s to lose. Right now his best chance is to focus on his agreement with social conservatives, to emphasize small gov’t and seriously plan for reduced spending, and to fully and completely (more than he has to this point) denounce his past dreadful support for regulating speech.
Anything can happen at this point. It is all up to Fred, his campaign and the remaining candidates.
Why do they keep saying that Keyes just now joined the race? He joined almost the same time Thompson did I believe. Keyes has also been in 2 TV debates, and one internet one.
It really is beyond me why a republican would consider voting for a ... POPULIST ...WORLD AFFAIRS IGNORANT.....LIBERAL LEANING... PAROLING GIVING... WELFARE STATE MINDED...AMNESTY SUPPORTING....BUSH BASHING....ANTI-AMERICAN....MORE GOVERNMENT CONTROL .... LYING HICK PREACHER FROM ARKANSAS,
..........although he’s probably the best DEMOCRAT running.
“Saddle Up” FRED
“Can Fred Thompson Surge?”
I heard that Fred said that he needs third or better in Iowa in order to stay in the race. Should fred drop out, who then would you personally support?
Fred ping!
Surge Fred Surge!
Q. What do you call the man to whom all the other presidential candidates defer during a presidential debate?
A. Mr. President
Go Fred!
Fred will be the Nominee, start preparation for November!
Bottom line for me, it is Fred for the Republic or the Republic just might get lost over the next few years of liberal administration with Liberal to Rino Congress.
Hope still alive here and not on life support just quite yet. Keep up the good work.
Uh, sorry to break this to the writer, but the RonPaulites will NOT vote for the Republican candidate (see local web poll*) they will wait for whatever third party candidate emerges that is closest to their personal ideology, whether it is the constitution party, the Libertarian Party, or some other fringe party.
* After being barraged by emails from Paul supporters for not including him in an earlier poll of "top-tier" candidates, I put the aforementioned poll up to pin them down as to who (or what) they really were...I got the results I expected. BTW the original poll which remained up for about 2 months had less than a dozen responses; as you can see by the responses to this one (mostly received within 2 days), everything said about Paulites spamming polls is true.
Didn’t the media get that right? Me I am just going to vote, let the media report on what happens. The notion that the media can predict the future is as sound as humans can predict glow-bull warming in 100 years. Right now the media are having trouble predicting this week end's snow storm.
Furthermore -- Nearly all of these polls are of adults, read the fine print.
Gee, I wonder who the media is rooting for?
If Bill Salier, who was Tancredo's campaign manager, will come on board with Fred, it will push over a few more to Fred. Congressman King is a great help.
I’m pretty discouraged to be honest....yall can get mad at me.
I think unless Fred does 3rd or better in Iowa and 2nd or better in South Carolina then he is done for.
and the chances of that look slim
I would like to ring his campaign advisors neck........he had this election by the tail
and entered too late.
lackluster first two debates.
no big media push.
a couple of wromng answers Fred too.....abortion amendment for one.
damn shame....we will end up with much less than him....Romney is my best guess as a compromise
ok whip me....beat me
Are you following the same race I am? The chances of that seem very good to me.
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