Posted on 09/18/2003 4:48:04 AM PDT by Chairman_December_19th_Society
We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!
Good morning!!
Remember the Trade Center!!
Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nation's military who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY #49
[Current Forecast Map]
[Current GOES-8 IR Satellite Photo]
[Current Morehead City NEXRAD III Composite Reflectivity Image]
[Current Sterling NEXRAD III Composite Reflectivity Image]
(The preceding images are "current"; to obtain the latest version, hit your refresh button on your browser.)
Discussion:
ISABEL is slowly coming ashore at C. Hatteras. The Morehead City NEXRAD image above at 7:16 AM ET showed what appears to be a double eye formation (in the extreme right edge of the photo at that time). The recon plane indicated wind maxima was located in the outer eyewall, not the inner.
Some intensification, but slight, might occur before landfall, so there is some uncertainty whether ISABEL will strike Pea Island as a Category II or III hurricane.
The current movement is to the NW. This will continue for roughly another 24 hours, when an LP trough over the Great Plains will induce ISABEL to turn northward.
ALL DYNAMIC MODELS AGREE WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
REVISED! AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED EASTWARD FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO MORICHES INLET NEW YORK. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO MORICHES INLET...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD...AND FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC.
ALL PREPARATIONS FOR THE ARRIVAL OF ISABEL SHOULD BE COMPLETE IN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. PREPARATIONS FOR THE ARRIVAL OF ISABEL SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA, MARYLAND, DELAWARE, AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. INTERESTS IN NEW JERSEY, PENNSYLVANIA, AND NEW YORK SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM!
Central pressure in ISABEL is 957 MB or about 28.26", and this measurement is remaining steady.
Hurricane force winds extend 115 miles out from center.
Hurricane force winds may be expected as far inland as 150 miles from the strike point
Storm force winds extend 345 (!!) miles from the center, mainly to the NE.
For the Mid-Atlantic, today and tomorrow are going to be a rough couple of days.
For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.
The worst, unfortunately, is yet to come.
But the bathtubs are full, the fridge cranked up to max, everything outside that could get underway is inside, so I'm pretty much ready.
Ninth Circuit stalls on the review. Papers are filed with SCOTUS...for a STAY of the Ninth Curcuits decision .....SCOTUS STAYS the Ninth decision until Oct 10th.
They don't toss the case they just punt it....until after the election is held.
SCOTUS stays above the fray...election goes ahead as planned.
...STORM WEAKENS, SLIGHTLY. NO FURTHER WEAKENING EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. LANDFALL LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
POSIT: 33.7N/75.2W (110 miles SSE C. Hatteras)
VECTOR: NW/15
WINDS: 100 (Category II)
PRESSURE: 957 MB (28.26")/STEADY
HURRICANE FORCE RADIUS: 115 Miles
STORM FORCE RADIUS: 345 Miles
She got bigger since last night..
Chair ~~~ I must respectfully disagree with you on that point. Certainly the reporters wouldn't be out in the very worst of conditions .... or at least I hope they have enough sense to get to shelter before the brunt of the storm hits.
But I cringe every time I see a reporter out in the wind and rain of a hurricane. My greatest fear is that one day we will see a reporter impaled, or even worse, decapitated by flying debris on live television.
It doesn't take 100+ mph winds to send shingles, signs, plywood, tree limbs .... all kinds of stuff flying through the air. Can you say mobile guillotine?
TWC guys seem to be the best at finding sheltered spots from which to report. Jeff Flock for CNN has always been one of the worst. One of his trademarks seems to be to walk out in the open to viewers can get a real sense of the fury of the storm. I always hold my breath that we don't see more than we want.
And then there are the ones that stand right on a bulkhead showing the ocean, apparently quite unaware of the possibility of an especially large wave crashing down on them.
Even on calm days at the beach, I've been caught off guard by the occasional larger wave. To the idiot standing on a boardwalk or dock during an approaching hurricane, that could be disastrous. Reality tv for sure as we watch him floundering (briefly) in the raging surf before his body disappears from view.
One doesn't have to experience the very worst of a hurricane to be in grave danger.
This assumes the wind pattern through a hurricane is homogeonous and on a constant predictable slope to a maximum.
That simply isn't true.
The high winds are located in squals and individual thunderstorms. In between are pockets of "relative" calm. (I say relative, because the wind might drop from 60-70 to say 40, but lower nonetheless.)
But pics of the reporter standing in 40-50 MPH wind still makes for a pretty good show, so they do it.
Ask yourself this question: Are we getting any live feeds from Newport, NC, right now?
Doubt it, unless they've left an unattended camera there. That town is getting the crap knocked out of it in the last rainband before the eyewall crosses--as we speak. Winds are over hurricane force there now (NHC data verifies this). The reports are being done from Nags Head (which they'll caption as "the outer banks--while true, it's a bit misleading if anyone actually looks at a map, but who cares?), which while it is bad up there, isn't where the action is--at least not right now. But it still "looks good."
No, there not going to risk the life of the reporter. It's show biz, after all.
During one hurricane, he was stationed at a hotel only about a block from where my brother lived at the time. Rather than being on the shore, which was half a block away, he was in the parking lot adjoining the street ..... and kept pointing out all the debris being catapulted through the air.
Already this morning I have seen him show a large piece of plywood that had blown into the parking lot from which he is reporting.
This man either has a death wish (which the hurricane gods diabolically keep denying him) or he is very stupid ..... or he has his tin foil body armor on under his rain parka.
And it doesn't take hurricane force winds to whip sheet metal through the air with enough force to do grave harm.
My family lived in Kinston, NC, when Hazel came through but still owned a home in Wilmington. My parents were concerned about the house so after the winds had subsided for a considerable time, we left for Wilmington. It was calm enough that Daddy had no trouble controlling the car. But half-way down there, a strong squall hit us .... and we saw an oncoming car get literally blown off the road ahead of us. Where we were, the winds were not that strong ..... we were in no danger (though the possibilities became very evident). My father was a very cautious, deliberate man and would not have endangered us by leaving in the midst of the storm.
It is those unexpected gusts .... or waves ... that make for the potential for disaster on live tv.
And this is where the meteorologist back at the station comes in. For example, using Newport, NC, as an example again, I would be able to let the reporter know (keep in mind that I would be safely ensconced in Northern Virginia in this hypothetical--350 miles away--but I can still gather enough data to provide an absolute rock solid piece of direction) that in about 10-15 minutes, the rain band that is currently moving through the area will pass and that he will have approximately 30 minutes to do a pool feed, show some trees whipping in the background (hey, 50 MPH winds make the trees bounce around real well!), show some debris, and get back inside. Indeed, I'd be able to get that granularity on time remaining down to six minute increments. I'd be able to provide data on how bad the next rainband is, whether there are any tornados embedded, which direction the wind is coming from, and a variety of other pieces of information. And when you here the boasts on TV stations their weather radar can track data to a neighborhood--it's true. And so can the NWS NEXRAD rada--hundreds, even thousands, of miles away with the magic of the Internet. (Thanks, Algore, for your invention!)
NEXRAD III data is a wonderful thing. And almost all TV stations have access to it now. (Even ordinary citizens can get it--for example, I have it.)
But it's still awe inspiring when it's that big.
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