Iran seems impervious to the shock and awe aerial tactics of the United States and Israel. We must cut off Iranian supply lined across the Caspian Sea and Central Asia, deriving from Russian and Chinese sources. There must be a direct Navy assault on the Straits of Hormuz, accompanied by Naval and Air Force strikes, and a land invasion of the Iranian coast. We don't have sufficient ground troops, even combined with the IDF, to take on the Iranians, who are fighting on their own soil. Europe is sitting this war out. We must have the active assistance of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Pakistan, with the Turks invading from the west, the Pakistanis from the east, and the Americans, Saudis, Israelis, and UAE forces landing on the north shore of the Persian Gulf. A three front war is needed, and the Turks and Pakistanis must get a share of the benefits, such as annexed territories. If we can't get the neighboring Muslim states to help, this makes the defeat of Iran more difficult.
All these are tough measures, and we will lose thousands of soldiers, sailors, Marines, and airman, not to mention IDF, Saudi, and other casualties. If we can't or won't do what is needed, then we have to rely on long term economic measures, which may work or not.
Revolution is a tricky game. Too much obvious interference and the population will march against you. Too little and they get crushed and murdered . Finding that sweet spot where you give them just enough help to succeed is what Trump is trying to do here. I would not trust that task to anyone less intelligent or capable than he is. Will he succeed? Time will tell.
You’re right. Napoleon said “History turns on the point of a bayonet.” Leaflets alone usually won’t do the trick.
The 1989 Romanian revolution is a good example of that. Ceaușescu fell from power only after the army turned against him.
In the case of Iran, they can’t be American bayonets. The American public won’t stand for it, especially if it’s not a quick operation.
There’s no Pearl Harbor to rally the public here.