AOC and JD Vance Statistically Tied in Hypothetical 2028 Presidential Poll

Reading political tea leaves three years before an election is a bit like predicting the weather for your 2028 summer vacation—entertaining, perhaps, but utterly useless for packing your bags. Yet here we are, with breathless headlines announcing that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has “taken the lead” over Vice President JD Vance in a hypothetical matchup. The progressive left is practically popping champagne.

For those who haven’t followed their trajectories, the contrast between these two couldn’t be sharper. AOC burst onto the scene in 2018, unseating a longtime Democratic incumbent and quickly becoming the face of democratic socialism in America. The Green New Deal, Medicare for All, abolishing ICE—she’s staked out the furthest left positions her party will tolerate, and then some. Vance, meanwhile, went from chronicling Appalachian struggles in “Hillbilly Elegy” to the Senate to the Naval Observatory. He’s spent the past year actually governing alongside President Trump.

So what has Democrats so giddy? A new poll from The Argument/Verasight surveyed 1,521 registered voters in early December, asking them to choose between AOC and Vance in a hypothetical 2028 contest. The result: AOC edges Vance 51 percent to 49 percent.

From Newsweek:
However, the result was within the poll’s 2.7 percentage point margin of error, making the two candidates statistically tied. The poll asked voters who they would vote for if the election was between the two of them.

So much for that “lead.” When your advantage falls within the margin of error, you’ve proven nothing except that the race would be competitive. The demographic breakdown tells an even more revealing story. Vance commands 57 percent of white voters and wins men by eight points. AOC’s strength? Black voters, Hispanic voters, and college-educated liberals—the same coalition that just watched Kamala Harris lose decisively.

Here’s the detail that should give every progressive pause: AOC can’t even win her own party’s nomination. Recent Democratic primary polls show her trailing “more established figures” like Harris and Pete Buttigieg. She’s the frontrunner among young Democrats, sure—but call me skeptical that the people who can’t afford rent are picking the next nominee.

AOC responded to the poll on X with “Bloop!” It’s the sound of someone who desperately wants this to mean something. She’s been barnstorming the country with Bernie Sanders, testing presidential waters while pretending she isn’t. But here’s what I keep coming back to: enthusiasm among progressive activists has never translated to general election viability. A candidate who honeymooned with socialism isn’t flipping Wisconsin.

Three years out, this poll is noise—pleasant noise for progressives, perhaps, but noise nonetheless.

Sources: Newsweek, The Hill

Just before the NYC primaries people said that about Mamdani.
No chance in the real election. People are smarter than to fall for his lies.

Inauguration of Mamdani in January, 2026.

Sad one. Some people on FR said they were voting for Bill Clinton because he was so obviously bad the American people would see the destruction of the good in America after he got in and that would seal the doom of the Dem Party.
After his second term, Bill Clinton had the highest approval of a President leaving office. 66% (polling began with Harry Truman).

No one ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public.
——H.L. Mencken.
(controversy over his status as first to say it).

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