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Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts 11 California races toward Democrats, 1 toward GOP
thehill ^ | 11/05/25 1:00 PM ET | by Ashleigh Fields

Posted on 11/05/2025 10:59:03 AM PST by RandFan

Voters in the Golden State passed Proposition 50, a ballot measure that will allow lawmakers to redraw congressional lines ahead of the midterm elections.

The state’s congressional Democrats — including Reps. Jim Costa, Adam Gray, Josh Harder, Doug LaMalfa, Dave Min, Derek Tran and George Whitesides — saw their ratings shift toward more favorable reelection bids following the passage of the redistricting plan, according to the nonpartisan election analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

California Republican Reps. Darrell Issa and David Valadao are now rated as being in toss-up races after previously residing in GOP-leaning districts.

Their GOP colleague, Rep. Young Kim, was the only Republican lawmaker in California to receive a safe rating from Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Conspiracy
KEYWORDS: california; nazifan; nevertrumpingtroll; rinofan; zot

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11 races?! Uh Oh...
1 posted on 11/05/2025 10:59:03 AM PST by RandFan
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To: RandFan

California only has 9 Republican Congressmen.


2 posted on 11/05/2025 11:03:02 AM PST by Nateman (Democrats did not strive for fraud friendly voting merely to continue honest elections.)
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To: RandFan

The East and West Coasts are lost to the GOP...would be better to allow them to be nuked.


3 posted on 11/05/2025 11:03:34 AM PST by dpetty121263
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To: RandFan

Exposing the California voter fraud aka The Plan.

FA/FO


4 posted on 11/05/2025 11:06:47 AM PST by ExTexasRedhead
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To: RandFan

I thought they were losing 5 house seats, not 11


5 posted on 11/05/2025 11:07:42 AM PST by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Sarah Barracuda

It’s 6 not 11. More Red Syates are about o redistict.


6 posted on 11/05/2025 11:10:23 AM PST by cowboyusa ( YESHUA IS KING OF AMERICA AND HE WILL HAVE NO OTHER GODS BEFORE HIM!)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

Some are Incumbents


7 posted on 11/05/2025 11:11:13 AM PST by cowboyusa ( YESHUA IS KING OF AMERICA AND HE WILL HAVE NO OTHER GODS BEFORE HIM!)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

If the SC does not toss the race based districts the House is gone. Bank it.


8 posted on 11/05/2025 11:11:14 AM PST by iamgalt
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To: cowboyusa

Yeah but wasnt the whole point of Prop 50 to make it even with what Texas did, 5 seats..so why is he saying 11(OK my math sucks so my apologies)


9 posted on 11/05/2025 11:11:56 AM PST by Sarah Barracuda
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To: iamgalt

No, FL is going to go, and other Red States.


10 posted on 11/05/2025 11:18:12 AM PST by cowboyusa ( YESHUA IS KING OF AMERICA AND HE WILL HAVE NO OTHER GODS BEFORE HIM!)
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To: RandFan

I think people need to stop leaning on “Oh, redistricting!”

Lots of the redrawn lines are creating some “pink” seats. R seats - unless there’s a counter-wave. In which case - it becomes a disaster.

The Virginia state races - I’m talking House of Delegates, not the statewide - makes me VERY nervous this gambit could backfire really badly.

The GOP lost 13/14 (I think one race still up in the air) in the VA state house races. It went from a 49-51 split to a 36/64 or maybe even 35/65 split.

Several GOP districts went blue.


11 posted on 11/05/2025 11:21:54 AM PST by Capn Hayek (Capital is not responsible for Labor's lack of planning)
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To: RandFan

Republicans are about the become a total nonentity in CA.


12 posted on 11/05/2025 11:37:10 AM PST by volare737 ( Diversity is something to be overcome, not celebrated. )
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To: RandFan

California can’t be saved it’s a dead fish in the sun democrat owned for years broke stoned and whining.


13 posted on 11/05/2025 11:41:54 AM PST by Vaduz
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To: volare737

They have been that way for the last 20 years.


14 posted on 11/05/2025 11:44:40 AM PST by Destroyer Sailor (Revenge is a dish best served cold. )
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To: All

My read is presently 9 GOP House members from Calif.

He declares 1 safe, post redistrict.

That reads 8, but the description is that lines move people around.

Doug LaMalfa won his race by 20+%. That’s safe. Kim won seat by over 10%. Safe.

Five GOP congressmen won by narrow margins. Those are the seats they will target.

Note that this is done by drawing Dem voters into the district. This must not be done anywhere other than overwhelming Dem district, lest they risk that district.

Early estimates that the Dems could get 5 seats out of Calif look pretty good. But some will be close and could be lost.


15 posted on 11/05/2025 11:55:49 AM PST by Owen
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To: All

My read is presently 9 GOP House members from Calif.

He declares 1 safe, post redistrict.

That reads 8, but the description is that lines move people around.

Doug LaMalfa won his race by 20+%. That’s safe. Kim won seat by over 10%. Safe.

Five GOP congressmen won by narrow margins. Those are the seats they will target.

Note that this is done by drawing Dem voters into the district. This must not be done anywhere other than overwhelming Dem district, lest they risk that district.

Early estimates that the Dems could get 5 seats out of Calif look pretty good. But some will be close and could be lost.


16 posted on 11/05/2025 11:55:49 AM PST by Owen
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