Built in the shadows and launched at night, Ukraine’s long-range drones are rattling Russia

Several factors need to be taken into account.

There was a round of initial attacks on Russian refineries that ended for all practical purposes when Biden demanded the ukies stop, afraid that either US gas prices might jump or Russia might escalate hugely, and either might affect the Fall 2024 US elections to the benefit of Trump. As it turned out, this was a feckless move: Harris lost anyway, and since Trump late last summer gave the Ukies a green light, while the Russians have escalated, a) They likely would have anyway - it’s mostly due to increased drone & missile production on their side; and b) US prices “at the pump” have bumped up and down a bit, mostly regionally, due to US refinery “incidents” (fires, a flood, etc.), but have not made any prolonged surge upwards that can be attributed definitely to the ukies resuming attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.

https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/gas-prices-inched-up-this-week-due-to-a-midwest-refinery-fire-102825.html

In any event (the US gasoline price discussion would take up a thread of its own!), the resumption of “volume” Ukie attacks on Russian oil infrastructure is recent. Russia had several months to effect repairs of damage caused in round 1, but now damage is seriously exceeding the repair rate, and the % of refinery output offline is going back up. The exact % is not as important as the trendline - I’ll get back to that.

As has been stated often by Russian tools and trolls, Russia has a large export margin. But, tanstaafl: Reduce exports, and the Russian government’s revenue is seriously reduced both by reduction of direct tax revenues on oil sales, and “downstream” effects, which are very considerable.

It should be taken into account that refinery output is also dependent on infrastructure outside the refineries. Pipelines (including pump stations), storage, rail and other transport are all being hit, and all affect availability for consumers, including the military, which is really what needs to be watched. If the refinery cannot, until repairs are made, get the crude, or if it’s products can’t move to “market”, that’s just as effective as a potent refinery hit.

Another, if smaller, factor is how well repairs hold up. Even under relatively(!) lower pressure and with all top line parts, refinery maintenance and procedures sometimes fails. I believe there have been approx. 14 significant refinery fires in the USA so far, in 2025. One of those caused a 30+ cent jump in gas prices in my area, recently. (It’s coming back down.) If we had to use substitute parts, it’s a sure bet Mr. Murphy would show up often.

This adds up to a very complex picture. However, from the reports of disruptions and Russia’s own sustained / extended ban on refined products exports until the end of 2025, it seems fairly clear that Ukraine in the last couple months has been causing damage in the collective avenues I describe above faster than Russia is repairing it. If Russia is unable to reverse that trendline, it is going to be in real trouble in 2026.

Here is another lovely drone operation by the Ukrainians.

An old man and a dog, and another old man walking down a road toward the Russian sector. In the vicinity of of the Ukraine held village of Petropavlovka.

The first old man and the dog is killed by drone, even though he is holding a white flag. Second old man can barely walk and sits down to rest. He is killed by drone while sitting.

How does Ukraine have drones and operators to spare for this sort of thing ?

https://x.com/squatsons/status/1985453255737098462

Ukrainians are getting weapons from a combination of international military aid and their own growing domestic production.
Key international suppliers include the United States and European nations, which provide a wide range of equipment from artillery shells and tanks to air defense systems.
Concurrently, Ukraine's own defense industry is rapidly expanding, with President Zelenskyy stating they now produce nearly 60% of their needs, including a large number of drones.

International military aid
From the United States: The U.S. provides a variety of weapons, including the M1 Abrams tank, Javelin anti-tank missiles, and ammunition for artillery.
From European nations: Allies like Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands are supplying weapons such as Leopard tanks, Challenger 2 tanks, and components for air defense systems like the Patriot system.
From other countries: Other nations, including Australia and Japan, have also contributed to military aid. Delivery methods: Weapons are delivered via land or air from neighboring NATO countries, a process that has faced logistical challenges and risks.

Domestic production
Growing defense industry: Ukraine is investing heavily in its own defense industry to reduce reliance on foreign aid.
Drone production: The country has rapidly built up a domestic drone industry, producing millions of drones in recent years.

Meeting needs: President Zelenskyy has indicated that Ukraine's domestic production now meets almost 60% of the army's needs.
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