President Trump’s statements today seem to signal a significant shift - a new phase in the war.
He said that Ukraine (with EU support) could liberate its occupied territory, and that it was time for Ukraine to act.
I expect that this includes approval for some significant Operation.
President Trump understands that Putin is feeling pressure from the gas lines and the pressure will grow with Putin’s tax hikes next week.
More Effed-16s!!!
Major offensive ground ops tend to be very costly, unless the party advancing has an overwhelming advantage of some sort: Weapons, manpower, surprise...
Even with the US ERAMS now being supplied to Ukraine, I don’t think the Ukies have that sort of advantage. The Ukies don’t have enough planes that can launch ERAMS to lay down withering pre-ground-offense hits with those, anyway. Certainly we’ve not sent them nearly enough HIMARS, artillery, etc., and the drone war along the front seems to be pretty much a stalemate.
HOWEVER, the trend line of the Ukies’ successful attacks on Russian refineries is emphatically positive, and there is nothing to indicate it won’t stay that way. It would not startle me if by November or so, the Ukies can be knocking out two refineries a day, each offline for a month or more, by taking out the distillation towers. If the Ukies get a little old US tech in a couple areas in which they are weak, that number could easily double. Tack on a major railway bridge each day, including those to Crimea, which already has extremely serious water supply problems.
THAT is the endgame. Without refined products, Russia will grind to a crawl, if not a halt. Crippled rail transport hinders any attempt to redistribute surviving supplies. Its own vast territory becomes a disadvantage...
Russia will try to respond, likely by increasing it’s already increased attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, but, at the survival level, the Ukies’ energy supplies are already considerably disbursed, and they’ve had 3 years practice in how to manage that survival and dispersal. I don’t think Russia can force a Ukie surrender anytime soon, unless Russia fully mobilizes, which would be very politically unpalatable for Putin, given that NATO hasn’t even responded forcefully to repeated serious incursions into NATO airspace. Alternately Russia “could” use numerous nukes (to which I’d say, blowing up the world is a spectacularly failed way to maintain the Security of Russia!) — “ain’t gonna happen”.
Putin’s best bet is to cut a deal before his distillation towers are all in ruins.