“It’s all about Russian getting warm-water ports.”
Russia already has warm water ports so it’s more like Russia trying to keep the warm water ports that it already has, which is why Russia had agreed to forgo Odessa until the Neocons prevented the agreement from being signed in Spring, 2022.
But Russia isn't focusing on territory and hasn't been for two years.
The Russian focus is destroying the Ukrainian military to the point it collapses. And, Ukraine is absolutely facing a severe manpower shortage.