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The swelling is gone and my foot isn't blue now that I got the right size compression sock. Things are looking up. I'm made shrimp egg rolls for supper Friday night. Best EVER. Leftovers for supper last night. Still good. My leftovers are generally better than most people's first-overs. On with the show.
Item One:
The public debt of the PRC is rising rapidly from already historically high levels. As bad as US debt is, the debt/GPP ratio sits at only ~113%. In the PRC it is ~279%. The worst part, for the CCP, is that all of this increased debt and spending is not having the desired effect. The PRC economy continues to languish. The public debt of the PRC is estimated at $61 TRILLION US.
By comparison the GDP per capita, in 2022 dollars, of the US is $76,400 while in China it is $12,720. This should give you some idea of the scope of China's economic problems.
Item Two:
Two Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMI) fell from 50.2 to 49.5 in October. The PMI is considered a excellent indicator of future economic activity. Positive and things are growing, negative when things aren't.
The problem for China here is that it is an investment driven economy to boost economic activity the government will have to further reduce interest rates to spur borrowing among companies and reduce savings in the populace.
At the same time the PRC has been printing money faster than the Bidet Regime on Meth. This has led to a massive and on going flow of capital OUT of the PRC.
They are nearing the point where they fall into a Liquidity Trap. This occurs when people prefer to hold cash and are willing to forego the interest on bonds. This can occur for a variety of reasons but generally for uncertainty in the economic future. If no one will buy your bonds it's hard to borrow money.
Item Three:
China's Property Loan Stock records the first EVER year-on-year drop. This is yet more devastating news for an investment led economy. If investment isn't going into already overbuilt real estate and infrastructure, the only place it can go is manufacturing. And that is where local and provincial governments are going to find revenue lost from a shrinking real estate sector.
The problem here is that manufacturing already accounts for an outsized 27% of China's economy, compared for ~14% for the rest of the world, and absorbs a huge amount of low-cost investment. What's more, the biggest constraint on Chinese manufacturing is weak demand, not scarce capital. Having local officials direct a huge increase in investment into manufacturing, even though private sector manufacturers have been reluctant to expand production, suggests the bad investment in property will simply be replaced by bad investment in manufacturing.
Item Four:
Chinese Netizens are having a spirited discussion over employment prospects. A recent Masters Graduate in Biology and medicine from a 985 University applied for a job as an academic editor in Hubei Province. (Project 985 universities are the Chinese equivalent of American top academic schools. They usually have their pick of jobs and are considered generally set for life as their education is considered to be first rate.) The base salary being offered was less than she was earning through her part-time jobs, ~$575 per month.
Online discussion generally ran that she should feel fortunate to have a job at ANY wage as there seems to be a glut of masters graduates with technical degrees in China at the moment. I am greatly simplifying this discussion but you get the idea.
Item Five:
The PRC has announced their intention to purchase large quantities of soybeans, wheat, and corn from the United States. This is the largest intent to purchase since 2017. This is the likely result of the massive crop destruction from the heavy rain and flooding in north China in July, August, and September.
WWG1WGA
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)