Replies

[Taking Crimea would be a very long and bloody fight that Ukraine may well not win. The Russians would fortify the isthmus of Perekop, less than 5 miles wide, and there’s no way to flank it. Ideal defensive positions.]

Let’s say Ukraine takes back what it had prior to the Feb 24. That means Crimea is cut off from fresh water. That makes Crimea’s situation worse than Kherson’s. The Kerch bridge is mostly down and can probably be rendered completely out of commission with ATACMS. Ultimately, without resupply except by ferry, it’s basically a waiting game until Crimea runs out of supplies. It’s one thing to resupply Crimea for day-to-day civilian functionality by ferry. To do it for a large Russian force - hard to see how they keep up any rate of fire, given fuel and ammo resupply problems.

Ukraine shut off water into Crimea back in 2014, but the Russians didn’t evacuate or surrender during that 7-8 years. Granted, they had the railroad, but unlike Kherson, Crimea can be supplied by large freighters and naval ships rather than just ferries across a river. And the frontage across which the Ukrainians would have to attack in Crimea would be so much more narrow than in Kherson.</I>

I just don’t see the Russians walking away from that. Ukraine may be able to retake it eventually, but the cost in lives would be very high. Just artillery slamming on both sides for a long time.