Posted on 11/11/2022 8:08:05 AM PST by marcusmaximus
That's the only reason Russia would agree to this is because Ukraine is winning, and/or the cost of victory is something Russia is not willing to pay.
If Ukraine gets back its oblasts, the Black Sea fleet is booted from the Crimea, and the entire border is demilitarized, that's a win for Ukraine. Also, a provision stating that Ukraine can't join NATO for 7 years obviously means that Ukraine could join NATO after that. And that also is a win, because Russia would never before have agreed to Ukraine ever joining NATO.
Putin isn’t going to give up the land bridge to Crimea under any circumstances. It’s too valuable financially and Mariupol is central to Putin’s imperialist mythology. The Russian army will have to be chased out of there like they were in Kharkiv and Kherson. Luhansk and Donetsk are another matter. Donetsk is an important industrial center but nothing really special about it. And Luhansk isn’t even that.
Militarily, the steppes North of the Black Sea - which include most of Zaporizhzhia oblast, is incredibly vulnerable to a Ukrainian drive south because there is no real natural boundary. That's what Russia would end up losing next, and then Kherson oblast is cutoff.
Ukraine will never accept the loss of either Kherson or Zaporizhzhia, though they may be willing to discuss some arrangent within the Donbass. So if Russia isn't willing to accept that, the war can and will go on.
If this truly is a Ukrainian proposal, it is a very smart move politically. It will be viewed as a reasonable offer by those in the West, and if Russia rejects it, that will increase the likelihood that the West will continue to support Ukraine militarily.
The 7-year tabling of Crimea was one of the deal points in the early negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
There was also a 7-year tabling of Donbas in the earlier negotiations that wasn’t mentioned in the new deal.
So that means that it’s possible that Russia gets to have pre- Feb 24 occupied Donbas territory as part of the new deal. But Russia would have to give back Mariupol.
Also, the original deal was no NATO membership for Ukraine. Now it’s 7-year tabling. So that’s new and most likely agreed upon by Russia already.
I think Putin is going to have to give up that land bridge to Crimea one way or the other. It is wide open, very flat country, and is simply too vulnerable to a Ukrainian offensive. If they put together a good force, they could drive south from Zaporizhzhia and completely sever the supply lines to all the forces in Kherson Oblast. That would be an utter disaster for the Russian military.
I firmly believe the ONLY reason Turkey was added to NATO was in case an attack on Russia became necessary, they could get through the Bosphorus Strait.
LOL, that might have come in handy in 1915.
Russia’s demands from the very start have included not only Crimea, but a land bridge to Crimea. Which sounds innocuous, but is a huge chunk of Ukrainian territory. Hell, this is pretty much exactly what Russia had before it started this war in the first place. Maybe less.
I like the Daily Mail but it’s not a surrender. And Russia will most likely get to absorb pre Feb 24 Donbas territory.
Ah, that makes sense. Of course, I wouldn't put it past the Russians to violate that particular provision to the treaty anyway, and move the Fleet right back to Sevastopol, daring the Ukrainians to do anything about it.
But That would abrogate other provisions of the treaty as well, so Ukraine would be free to join NATO, etc.. so maybe that would keep them in check.
Also, it appears that Lukashenko isn’t as stupid as he seems to be.
i make no qualification of the source other than it’s a second source vs General SVR Telegram
Yes. DM source saying the same thing as SVR. DM just framing it as a surrender for hype. I bet there will be a deal that will resemble this framework in most ways.
good bet...
Getting ships into the Black Sea is easier to launch missiles than the frequently-frozen seas north and east of Russia. Plus, the Black Sea is closer to Moscow, etc. And a direct landing on Russia would be closer.
But since you are a rude butthole who knows everything, I’ll be sure to waste no further time.
BWAAAHAHAHAHA!!!
Who is the brilliant jackass that dreamed this one up?
I forgot to add that these reasons are some of the reasons given by NATO itself for why Turkey is in. But do carry on.
And then was Russia is taken out then what. Turkey is going to be a much bigger threat than Russia, when they are finally free to rebuild The Ottoman Empire.
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