CTP-ISW is currently not prepared to change its assessment that Iran and its Axis of Resistance will most likely conduct a coordinated, large-scale attack targeting Israel. Some recent Iranian statements and Western media reports diverge from CTP-ISW’s ongoing assessment. Below are several of these statements and reports:
Unspecified Iranian officials told Western media that Iran will “delay” its attack on Israel if Israel and Hamas conclude a ceasefire-hostage agreement.[6] The Iranian UN mission similarly claimed in its August 20 statement that Iran seeks to “avoid any possible adverse impact” on the ongoing ceasefire-hostage negotiations.[7]
The Iranian president and his allies have advocated for attacking “secret Israeli bases” in Iraqi Kurdistan and Azerbaijan as a way to limit the risk of escalation.[8]
Some senior Iranian officials have called for killing senior Israeli political and military leaders instead of conducting a widescale attack on Israel.[9]
CTP-ISW does not dismiss the above statements and reports. These statements and reports, however, most likely do not reflect the views of the Iranian security establishment and members of the chain of command who are ultimately responsible for deciding and implementing Iran's response. The Iranian UN mission, for example, reports to the Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry, which is part of the Masoud Pezeshkian administration. The Iranian UN mission's statement that Iran seeks to avoid undermining ceasefire-hostage negotiations by conducting a strike therefore likely reflects Pezeshkian’s desire to avoid a direct strike on Israel rather than the views of the Iranian security establishment.[10] CTP-ISW continues to attach greater significance to statements from senior Iranian military officials and the Supreme Leader about how Iran will respond. These statements continue to indicate that Iran will most likely conduct a coordinated, large-scale attack targeting Israel:
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered a direct strike on Israel during a Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) meeting immediately following Haniyeh’s death.[11] Khamenei has publicly stated that Israel should face a “harsh punishment” for killing Haniyeh.[12]
Senior Iranian security officials, including Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri and SNSC Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian, have suggested that both Iran and the Axis of Resistance will retaliate against Israel.[13]
Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps officials, including IRGC Deputy Commander Ali Fadavi, continue to indicate that Iran will attack Israel directly.[14]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-21-2024
Iran Update, August 22, 2024
Iranian interest in the progress of Gaza Strip ceasefire-hostage negotiations suggests that elements of the Iranian regime are likely delaying a retaliatory strike on Israel until ceasefire talks conclude. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported that newly appointed Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is scheduled to meet Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani in Tehran “in the coming days.”[1] Thani kept Iranian officials apprised of negotiation progress during the August 15-16 ceasefire talks. The timing of Thani’s visit, combined with his role as a liaison between Iran and the other negotiators, suggests that Thani is likely to discuss the ceasefire with Iranian officials during his visit.[2] Talks between Israel and international mediators, including Qatar, restarted in Cairo on August 22 immediately before Thani’s visit to Iran.[3] Statements from Hamas and Israel suggest that disagreements over Israeli force presence in the Strip continue to be a barrier to a ceasefire agreement, however.[4] Unspecified Iranian officials told Western media on August 13 that Iran will “delay” its attack on Israel if Israel and Hamas conclude a ceasefire-hostage agreement.[5] The Iranian UN mission similarly claimed on August 20 that Iran seeks to “avoid any possible adverse impact” on the ongoing ceasefire-hostage negotiations.[6]
The Iranian security establishment may calculate that a continued delay will generate operational surprise while forgoing strategic surprise, though the continued Iranian delay has also enabled the United States to move more assets into the theater to defend against an attack. Iran has likely not retaliated against Israel up to this point because Iran very likely seeks to ensure that its next attack restores deterrence with Israel while simultaneously avoiding a large-scale war.[7] Iranian leaders are therefore incentivized to carefully and slowly calculate their next attack to ensure that the attack inflicts serious damage on Israel but does not cause mass civilian casualties. Establishing deterrence would, however, require any retaliation to be successful. Iranian and Axis of Resistance officials have repeatedly emphasized that an attack targeting Israel will occur but have sought to counteract strategic clarity with operational ambiguity on the attack’s precise timing. US officials have warned, for example, that Iran could launch a strike with ”little or no warning.” The operational surprise that Iran is trying to build is meant to increase the likelihood that an Iranian retaliation on Israel would inflict serious damage, as CTP-ISW has previously noted.[8]
Iranian decisionmaker’s delay has also enabled Israel and its allies to ready defenses and move additional military assets to the region, however. The Nimitz-Class carrier USS Abraham Lincoln arrived in the Middle East on August 21, enabling US forces to operate two carrier strike groups in the event of an Iranian attack on Israel.[9]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-22-2024