To many people are on the ballot and will split the vote.
Plus mail-in voting.
Unfortunately Newsome is going to beat the recall.
As the most corrupt out of all the corrupt voting states you are probably right. However this is such an obvious case of keeping a black man down it will still hurt the left immensely. You can be damn sure Larry Elder won't just tuck in his tail and walk away. This is a no win game for the left.