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Researchers Predict COVID-19 Will Eventually Be 'No More Virulent Than the Common Cold'
PJ Media ^ | 01/23/2021 | Stacey Lennox

Posted on 01/23/2021 9:55:30 AM PST by SeekAndFind

New research predicts that, like the virus that caused the Spanish flu epidemic in 1918, COVID-19 will become another seasonal bug that we build efficient long-term immunity against. Researchers at Emory University and the Department of Biology and Center for Disease Dynamics at Pennsylvania State University published their findings in Science. It provides a hopeful outlook for the course of the pandemic, especially for young, healthy individuals who have been infected:

We are currently faced with the question of how the CoV-2 severity may change in the years ahead. Our analysis of immunological and epidemiological data on endemic human coronaviruses (HCoVs) shows that infection-blocking immunity wanes rapidly, but disease-reducing immunity is long-lived. Our model, incorporating these components of immunity, recapitulates both the current severity of CoV-2 and the benign nature of HCoVs, suggesting that once the endemic phase is reached and primary exposure is in childhood, CoV-2 may be no more virulent than the common cold.

Unlike some viruses that cause severe illness in children, COVID-19 does not. Children, especially those under the age of 10, seem to tolerate the infection, exhibiting only mild symptoms. They also don’t appear to be drivers of disease transmission. The researchers evaluated scenarios for continuing vaccination when the virus falls below pandemic levels because of this pattern. Even for the rollout, they propose:

Should the vaccine cause a major reduction in transmission, it might be important to consider strategies that target delivery to older individuals for whom infection can cause higher morbidity and mortality, while allowing natural immunity and transmission to be maintained in younger individuals.

Wow. That almost sounds like vaccination for the elderly and those at-risk, and herd immunity for younger populations. This analysis has implications for public policy, including challenging the idea that vaccines should be mandatory

(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...


TOPICS: Health/Medicine; Science; Society
KEYWORDS: commoncold; covid19; lethality; vaccine
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1 posted on 01/23/2021 9:55:30 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
Support for this scenario exists in previous research that found antibodies, the proteins that fight the initial infection, begin to decrease after 6-8 months. However, powerful and protective memory T-cells remain ready to fight off COVID-19 should reinfection take place. We know that individuals who recovered from SARS have detectable T-cells 17 years after the infection. B-cells, which manufacture the antibodies, were actually still increasing over the eight-month study. These long-term immune-system components reduce the severity of the illness the second time an individual is exposed:

More often, people become infected a second time with a particular pathogen, and the immune system recognizes the invader and quickly extinguishes the infection. The coronavirus in particular is slow to do harm, giving the immune system plenty of time to kick into gear.

“It may be terminated fast enough that not only are you not experiencing any symptoms but you are not infectious,” Dr.[Alesandra] Sette said.

The idea that COVID-19 will eventually act like routine HCoVs is also supported by research on T-cell reactivity. Six studies demonstrated that samples from people who had no known exposure to COVID-19 nevertheless had reactive T-cell responses to the virus in between 20-50% of participants.

The studies were small and cannot predict how many in the population may have a pre-existing immune response based on exposure to related HCoVs. However, it is a possible explanation for the wide range of symptoms seen even in healthy individuals and those who are asymptomatic.

2 posted on 01/23/2021 9:56:49 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

But Biden, Faucci, et al will want us all to wear masks - while they don’t.


3 posted on 01/23/2021 9:58:41 AM PST by grobdriver (BUILD KATE'S WALL!)
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To: grobdriver

Dr Anthony mengella (sp?)


4 posted on 01/23/2021 10:00:36 AM PST by Bob434
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To: Bob434

Funny how none of this “good news” came out during Trumps term


5 posted on 01/23/2021 10:02:33 AM PST by Bob434
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To: SeekAndFind

Yes. It almost is now.

This is how common colds came to be. Many are coronaviruses, though not this family.


6 posted on 01/23/2021 10:06:54 AM PST by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: SeekAndFind

Sorry but that scenario presupposes events that have yet to happen.For such extensive immunity to occur, the susceptible worldwide population would have to become infected to some extent with COVID 19, and survive. Yet thus far less than 5% of the world’s population has had such encounters with this virus. Absent massive vaccinations, this virus has to circle the globe for 3-5 years as did the “Spanish Flu”, infect, sicken and kill far more before the population immunity the authors describe occurs.Massive, effective vaccinations are the only way suffering, deaths, social, political and economic disruptions will be avoided. Sadly no genetic clinical test has been designed to identify just who in fact are susceptible to this virus.


7 posted on 01/23/2021 10:07:08 AM PST by allendale
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To: SeekAndFind

Well gee since that kills lots of folks each year....


8 posted on 01/23/2021 10:08:15 AM PST by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the cloudso)
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To: SeekAndFind

Coronaviruses are one of the two major viruses causing the common cold. This scamdemic has been perpetrated on a variant cold//flu virus with 98% recovery rate as being the Black Death.


9 posted on 01/23/2021 10:09:14 AM PST by RJS1950 (The democrats are the "enemies foreign and domestic" cited in the federal oath)
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To: allendale

My understanding is that these so-called vaccines only provide three to six months protection, and even then do not prevent infection but simply reduce the severity of the symptoms. I think it’s going to have to go around the world several times one way or the other.


10 posted on 01/23/2021 10:15:49 AM PST by SoCal Pubbie
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To: allendale

For what it’s worth my quick research indicates that only about 33% of the worlds population was infected by the Spanish Flu a hundred years ago.


11 posted on 01/23/2021 10:17:28 AM PST by SoCal Pubbie
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To: SeekAndFind

This is because the milder strains do not kill their host. This is true for all viruses, and has been since we started studying them.


12 posted on 01/23/2021 10:18:54 AM PST by D Rider ( )
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To: SeekAndFind

Been a long damn 3 weeks as originally talked about by doc fauxchee. You know, LAST YEAR.


13 posted on 01/23/2021 10:22:42 AM PST by rktman (Destroy America from within? Check! WTH? Screwed, blued and tatooed. Enlisted USN 1967.)
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To: ifinnegan

Over 3000 dying every day in the US on average.
Thats some cold.


14 posted on 01/23/2021 10:25:06 AM PST by Kozak (The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.)
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To: SeekAndFind

“... especially, now that Trump is gone.”


15 posted on 01/23/2021 10:29:19 AM PST by Widget Jr
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To: Kozak

Of COVID or WITH COVID?


16 posted on 01/23/2021 10:29:53 AM PST by frogjerk (I will not do business with fascists)
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To: SeekAndFind

Just like the flu? That we use to have until now.


17 posted on 01/23/2021 10:32:08 AM PST by McGruff (Where's Hunter?)
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To: SeekAndFind
THE REAL DEAL on CDC's and CCP's CORONAVIRUSES


Click here to see what FauXi and CDC have done
to weaponize the common cold with GainOfFunction.

18 posted on 01/23/2021 10:36:41 AM PST by Diogenesis ("when a crime is unpunished, the world is unbalanced" )
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To: SeekAndFind

COVID-19 is a common cold virus.

In its current form, it is a severe common cold that often causes fatal pneumonia and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in elderly people and in people with preexisting health issues.


19 posted on 01/23/2021 10:37:20 AM PST by zeestephen
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To: SeekAndFind

The hell you say! Damb you, FearBros and FearBras. You got some ‘splainin’ to do.


20 posted on 01/23/2021 10:38:48 AM PST by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Liberals would have no standards at all.)
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