So this is posted at RCP, but as far as I know, RCP does NOT include their polls in their averages?
It’s not just being a voter for Trump that will get you targeted. Conservatives are a target in general, so even for a basic House or state race, GOP voters are getting more and more “shy” for their own protection.
The social trends that made polls wrong in 2016 are much stronger in 2020.
Will the media reflect on their bias and errors? No, because they are only doing what their deep-state controllers want.
Remember folks, it was Toto, the little dog, who pulled back the curtain to reveal the Great Oz for the fraud that he was....the masses weren’t loyal to Oz, they just feared his power, which turned out to be fraudulent.....quite the metaphor for the times we live in!
That's because most polls are complete crap. Trafalger and Big Data Polls were the two organizations that got it right in 2016 and they did it by using proven methodology to determine a representative sample and spend the time and money to get a credible result. The rest of them are just giving their clients want that want. Since most of the clients are the media, they produce results that conform to the media bias.
Trafalgar seems to be doing polls to actually sense the sentiment of voters, unlike virtually all the rest that manufacture data for propaganda purposes and should be ignored.
All of us dump on pollsters employed by the MSM and major universities (by and large). And if The Donald wins as most Freepers expect, we hope that the larger populace rejects media polling and the firms that conduct those polls.
But the hard truth is that the campaigns run their own "internal polls." And these polls, from what little I can observe, seem more sophisticated and accurate. I have to suspect that they are held accountable by the various campaign insiders. After all, the campaigns have "skin in the game." And as Nassim N. Taleb tells us, that factor does wonders for improving performance. If your polling firm can't provide an accurate picture of what is going on, why should future campaigns hire you?
Another guy who does an excellent job of analyzing the polls, their methodology and assumptions from the cross tabs etc is Steve Deace.
Steve Deace was the head pollster for the Cruz campaign so he’s not some journalist - hack. He’s been a professional pollster.
He tears them apart and shows how they can’t possibly be accurate. Their assumptions combined with the demographic data lead them to conclusions that are simply impossible.
If a shy Trump supporter lives in a very blue area, admitting he is voting for Trump is tantamount to being caught by both his wife and his girlfriend in a brothel