Good day for reading derp interviews.
Happy hunting!
United States CHINAVIRUS Confirmed Cases
Date New Total Linear Model
Cases Cases Since
Actual Actual 4/2/2020
3/14/2020 2,717
3/15/2020 761 3,478
3/16/2020 1,167 4,645
3/17/2020 1,717 6,362
3/18/2020 1,407 7,769
3/19/2020 5,911 13,680
3/20/2020 5,605 19,285
3/21/2020 7,462 26,747
3/22/2020 8,478 35,225
3/23/2020 11,107 46,332
3/24/2020 8,816 55,148
3/25/2020 13,870 69,018
3/26/2020 16,635 85,653
3/27/2020 19,363 105,016
3/28/2020 19,448 124,464
3/29/2020 17,892 142,356
3/30/2020 22,003 164,359
3/31/2020 25,151 189,510
4/1/2020 27,005 216,515
4/2/2020 28,698 245,213 245,213
4/3/2020 32,740 277,953 277,216
4/4/2020 34,123 312,076 309,219
4/5/2020 25,544 337,620 341,222
4/6/2020 30,576 368,196 373,225
4/7/2020 31,916 400,112 405,228
4/8/2020 32,020 432,132 437,231
4/9/2020 33,618 465,750 469,234
4/10/2020 35,551 501,301 501,237
4/11/2020 31,942 533,243 533,240
4/12/2020 27,289 560,532 565,243
4/13/2020 26,623 587,155 597,246
4/14/2020 26,937 614,092 629,249
4/15/2020 30,468 644,560 661,252
4/16/2020 35,221 679,781 693,255
4/17/2020 30,550 710,331 725,258
4/18/2020 29,521 739,852 757,261
4/19/2020 24,413 764,265 789,264
4/20/2020 28,648 792,913 821,267
4/21/2020 32,128 825,041 853,270
4/22/2020 24,051 849,092 885,273
4/23/2020 37,617 886,709 917,276
4/24/2020 38,329 925,038 949,279
4/25/2020 35,858 960,896 981,282
4/26/2020 26,426 987,322 1,013,285
4/27/2020 23,185 1,010,507 1,045,288
4/28/2020 25,258 1,035,765 1,077,291
4/29/2020 28,807 1,064,572 1,109,294
4/30/2020 30,638 1,095,210 1,141,297
5/1/2020 36,242 1,131,452 1,173,300
5/2/2020 29,312 1,160,764 1,205,303
5/3/2020 27,358 1,188,122 1,237,306
5/4/2020 24,778 1,212,900 1,269,309
5/5/2020 24,763 1,237,663 1,301,312
5/6/2020 25,520 1,263,183 1,333,315
5/7/2020 29,440 1,292,623 1,365,318
5/8/2020 29,162 1,321,785 1,397,321
5/9/2020 . 1,429,324
5/10/2020 . 1,461,327
5/11/2020 . 1,493,330
5/12/2020 . 1,525,333
5/13/2020 . 1,557,336
5/14/2020 . 1,589,339
5/15/2020 . 1,621,342
5/16/2020 . 1,653,345
5/17/2020 . 1,685,348
5/18/2020 . 1,717,351
5/19/2020 . 1,749,354
5/20/2020 . 1,781,357
5/21/2020 . 1,813,360
5/22/2020 . 1,845,363
5/23/2020 . 1,877,366
5/24/2020 . 1,909,369
5/25/2020 . 1,941,372
5/26/2020 . 1,973,375
5/27/2020 . 2,005,378
Tacking onto your update with some different data and analysis that I found highly interesting.
Cliff’s Notes version: R2 data over time has remained highly constant, this indicates that social distancing and the other restrictions that have been put in place does not work to reduce COVID-19 deaths. In fact, the data suggests the opposite may be true. Google mobility data and other data shows that shelter-in-place, quarantine, stay-at-home - whatever your state calls it not only hasn’t helped but seems to make things worse. There’s no way to slice the data presented that shows social distancing has had any significant effect.
Orignal threads on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1255553210464395265
https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1258780623570792453
Or in a more readable format:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1258780623570792453.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1255553210464395265.html