Posted on 04/29/2020 10:31:58 AM PDT by Signalman
Caution: The massive disruptions caused by the Coronavirus outbreak may prompt me to revise the forecast, especially if there is a crack in Trump support.
Primaries Predict Election Winner -- Cycle Also Favors GOP —
Forecast Model Batting 5 for 6 (since 1996)
The Primary Model gives President Trump a 91% chance of winning a possible match-up with Democrat Joe Biden in November, based on primary performance in New Hampshire and South Carolina, plus the first-term electoral benefit. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176.
In a possible match-up with Bernie Sanders in November, Trump’s chance of winning would rise to 95%. In that scenario, Trump would get 390 electoral votes, Sanders 148.
These predictions come from primarymodel.com
It is a statistical model that relies on presidential primaries and an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election. This year the model has been calibrated to predict the Electoral College vote.
Winning the early primaries is a major key for electoral victory in November. On the Democratic side, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders split the primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina while Trump handily won the Republican Primary in New Hampshire (the GOP primary in South Carolina was cancelled this year).
What favors Trump in 2020 as well is the cycle of presidential elections operating for nearly 200 years, as illustrated by the snapshot since 1960. After one term in the White House the incumbent party is favored to win re-election unlike the situation when it has held office for two or more terms.
or the record, the PRIMARY MODEL, with slight modifications, has correctly predicted the winner of all but one of the presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996; it predicted Al Gore in 2000, who lost the electoral vote though winning the popular vote. In recent elections the forecast has been issued as early as January and no later than March of the election year.
Presidential elections going back as far as 1912 are used to estimate the weight of primary performance. It was in 1912 that presidential primaries were introduced. That year the candidate who won his party’s primary vote, Woodrow Wilson, went on to defeat the candidate who lost his party’s primary vote, William Howard Taft. As a rule, the candidate with the stronger primary performance wins against the candidate with the weaker primary performance. For elections from 1912 to 2016, the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner, albeit retroactively, every time except in 1960 and 2000.
Wonder how he models Dem cheating?
He was one of the very few to predict Trump in ‘16. Must have driven his Stony Brook colleagues insane!
Until the debates, when a drooling Biden will lose any and all support.
WINNING
Obviously wrong. The MSM’s surveys have Joe Biden winning easily, no matter what he does.
Musta forgot to input the pedo joe factor.
Without going into detail, this is very close to my own numbers. Unless America’s globalist enemies up their fraud game, they’re doomed.
Yes, I expect that.
I’m feeling quite depressed after yesterdays new poll showing Americans disapprove of Trump’s response to COVID 19. I think him giving medical advice is really hurting him.
If joe has to stand, he will pass out and go face down in the hash browns, and if he sits, he will slobber and snot on his tie before he falls dead asleep and goes face down in the hash browns.
Either way, it's a 1-100 shot that joe doesn't make it through the first debate.
If the demonRAT's try to jack him up with coke or benees or any other magic drug, he will bounce off the ceiling with insanity.
I can see joe being really coked up high and just pissing on the stage, {with or without whipp'en it out}.
Yep, and watching the media do it concurrently will be worth the price of admission.
That poll is a fart in the wind
No reasonable American is voting for a man with dementia
Lord God, may it also be Your Will.
Well, I sure hope not. Which is why we either got to get the election moved back (probably a non - starter) or get Americans back to work asap.
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