Posted on 02/26/2020 9:16:48 AM PST by C19fan
Or could backfire spectacularly. Seems to be more likely.
The death rate in the spanish flu is pretty useless as a comparison. The standard treatment was a minimum of 25 tablets 325mg each of aspirin per day.
The thinking was if you had a fever, they would force feed you aspirin until the fever stopped!
Nobody figured out what that did to clotting and bleeding in your lungs.
Hell, with Nyquil alone the death rate of spanish flu today would be almost nothing. They were -barely- outta the dark ages medically speaking.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate
Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate
The mortality rate of both appears to be the same. Ease of transmission appears to be similar too, in that people are transmitting the virus without showing symptoms. That’s what makes it dangerous. One undetected person can spread a lot of flu if they or authorities don’t know they have it.
Then there is the intentional terrorist wave to worry about. A suicide bomber mentality with only a 2.5% risk factor ups the ante a lot.
The recession and the economic boom that followed seemed to have nothing to do with the epidemic. The former was attributed mostly to the wind-down after WWI.
The 1918 Flu Pandemic occurred when the total population of the Earth was around 1.8 billion. Estimates of how many died are all over the place because record-keeping in those days was not very good. Most likely the total was between 50 to 100 million. 50 million dead would be 2.7%, 100 million dead would be 5.4%. Not good in any way.
While I agree with most of what you are saying, even those samples are too small for a good assessment.
A cruise for instance, like the one in Japan, may have a higher number of people over 60. The virus seems to target that age group. How many people had cancer on that cruise? etc.
Like I said earlier. Flu numbers are fairly reliable because the data has been collected over decades.
Thank God we’re finally going to see millions of people die and I can say “I told you so!!!”
I have been so disappointed when all my other predictions of mass epidemic deaths failed to materialize.
I am not sure if we can compare the CoronaVirus to the Flu. CoronaVirus is just getting started.
The flu virus has been rotating around the world mutating each year.
The Spanish Flu did not do it’s damage until the next Fall/Winter flu season 2019/2020.
We might not know what the CoronaVirus will do it just escape China at the end of Flu season. It could mutate to some more dangerous or less dangerous to make a come back in Fall of 2020. Best to be prepare for it until we know for sure either way.
“So COVID-19 has about the same mortality rate as the Spanish Flu”
No, that is documented confirmed cases, from communist china. The truth is that this thing is no worse than any other flu out there. But we are witnessing a Communist dictatorship going full authoritarian, and a hard anti-Trump media trying very hard to tank the economy. That happens by 24/7 scare propaganda.
Coronavirus = Y2k
Garbage study. No idea how many people are asymptomatic carriers.
WHO is downplaying it, as are Trump and Rush.
Needs a repeat as I see it...
.....”The truth is that this thing is no worse than any other flu out there. But we are witnessing a Communist dictatorship going full authoritarian, and a hard anti-Trump media trying very hard to tank the economy. That happens by 24/7 scare propaganda”.....
The Case Fatality Rate (or Case Fatality Ratio or CFR) is the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.
The Mortality Rate is a measure of the number of deaths (in general, or due to a specific cause) in a particular population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit of time. Mortality rate is typically expressed in units of deaths per 1,000 individuals per year; thus, a mortality rate of 9.5 (out of 1,000) in a population of 1,000 would mean 9.5 deaths per year in that entire population, or 0.95% out of the total.
Thus, for coronavirus, let's assume there are 77,660 confirmed cases of, and 2,663 deaths due to coronavirus in Mainland China. Let's also assume (and sidestep the debate over accuracy) there are 1.3bn people in Mainland China and 200 million under quarantine. With these numbers, depending upon the context, you can get these figures:
Mortality Rate of 2,663 / 1.3bn or 0.0002% or 0.2 people per 100,000 (the context is all of Mainland China).
Mortality Rate of 2,663 / 200MM or 0.0013% or 1.33 people per 100,000 (conxtex is the Rate is conditional upon the people being under quarantine).
CFR of 2,663 / 77660 or 3.4% at this time in Mainland China, without any correction for recovery/"being cured" or timing mismatch (i.e. Not all people in numerator and denominator have been infected or dead for the same amount of time - that would require a cohort analysis).
In fact, the literature on CFRs usually has a qualifier that a CFR is basically "valid" ONLY when the pandemic is through. Thus, these numbers are in flux and can / may / will change from day to day.
The point of my post is to differentiate between the varying rates and ratios and percentages being quoted. Further, while a CFR today isn't comparable directly to a CFR for some other disease that has run its course, I do believe there is benefit in calculating the CFR and making comparisons across countries and time. After all, we keep track of the runs scored during a baseball game even though it ain't over till its over.
I am not a biostatistician nor do I play one on TV. But this knowledge should serve people well during this saga.
Do we really need a new Corona Virus thread every 5 minutes at FR?
This is becoming a deal killer for me, I’ve been at FR for 22 years and this nonsense has got to stop.
This crap is making FR a joke. The Q stuff is in ONE thread. I suggest the Corona Virus stuff also should be consolidated.
Worst plan ever, because this is vindicating Trump’s trade war and supply side chain issues. He’s also using it to fast track more border walls.
In addition it will likely cost China trillions of dollars and may cause regime change.
This is a 9/11 level event, in that it will change the world forever.
Coronavirus = RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA
To be fair in 1900-1904 when San Fransisco allowed the Plague to escape into all of the western USA, the discovery of penicillin was still a quarter century away...
Still, they have no excuse for failing to imposing a quarantine and rat catching program when multiple cases were confirmed.
The figures which get quoted for the US death toll stop at some point in 1919 but some people died of the flu in the early months of 1920 as well...including a couple of my cousins.
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