[Vermont Lt]

I understand what you are putting out there.

But there are a couple of things that are not “normal.” The first is the Reproductive Factor (Ro). A normal flu is measured under or around a 1. This virus is double or triple that. That is significant. It doesn’t mean everyone is going to die. It means a lot of people will get sick.

The second is the reaction. As is often the case, watch what they do rather than what they say. The actions of the Chinese government are unprecedented. I believe that is very telling.

Finally, I believe people should stop thinking about this killing them. But it will overwhelm the medical services (Hospital beds are not abundant.). Lack of treatment will kill ya. And when a lot of people are sick, this “just in time” world will stop pretty quickly.

It’s not hyperbole or panic. If one has a basic education and common sense, it is normal to be concerned. One needs to keep it in context and watch it.

[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[BusterDog]

"China coronavirus 'spreads before symptoms show'"

"Officials announced that the sale of all wildlife in China would be banned from Sunday. The virus is thought to have originated in animals, but no cause has been officially identified.

In humans, the incubation period - during which a person has the disease, but no symptoms yet - ranges from between one and 14 days, officials believe.

Without symptoms, a person may not know they have the infection, but still be able to spread it."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51254523

[MarMema]

The newest estimate from the epidemiologist group on Twitter is Ro 2.6

Measles is 14.

[Mom MD]

Yes we need to watch. One thing I would point out is our numbers on flu are in at least a partially immunized group with some natural immunity as well due to prior flu infections. It is difficult to compare but probably the best comparison we have. I remember the first year of H1N1. Not fun but not society ending calamity either. My personal guess is this will turn out to be something like that. Either way we will know soon and panic will not help.