I see what you’re saying. The 50 deaths may be the full-course result of the ~200 ppl infected in December. The typical flu has I think about a 3 week course from infection to recovery. So the reported deaths should significantly trail the infected number during virus spread. This will give a deceptively low death rate. In the US they use infected vs. dead rate, i.e. per-patient, not a running rate like the media.
But imo in years past this would just be flu strain “2019-7” that people would worry about until the vaccine came out the following year.
Influenza kills a lot of people every year. Some strains are more virulent than others. Same as it’s ever been.
I understand what you are putting out there.
But there are a couple of things that are not “normal.” The first is the Reproductive Factor (Ro). A normal flu is measured under or around a 1. This virus is double or triple that. That is significant. It doesn’t mean everyone is going to die. It means a lot of people will get sick.
The second is the reaction. As is often the case, watch what they do rather than what they say. The actions of the Chinese government are unprecedented. I believe that is very telling.
Finally, I believe people should stop thinking about this killing them. But it will overwhelm the medical services (Hospital beds are not abundant.). Lack of treatment will kill ya. And when a lot of people are sick, this “just in time” world will stop pretty quickly.
It’s not hyperbole or panic. If one has a basic education and common sense, it is normal to be concerned. One needs to keep it in context and watch it.