Skip to comments.China's Coming Revolution
Posted on 12/30/2017 11:13:19 PM PST by GoldenState_Rose
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Interesting read *Ping*
Freedom from communism *ping*
Chinese Communism is everything but anyway. Also China has a history of rise and fall. Modern conditions aren’t an anomaly. They were bigger than that comparing to the rest of the World before 19th century.
I believe any ‘revolution’ would screw them. They don’t have a tradition of representative government.
Also the biggest Chinese weaknesses is they aren’t a warrior nation and they barely understand other cultures making them subpar in diplomacy and overall foreign policy.
Also they love money above all so the treason is easily bought by outsiders.
In my opinion they are heading for a hard landing too.
It’s hard to tell what’s really going on in China, but one thing is for sure: Debt driven booms are always followed by Debt driven crashes. China’s going to hit one sooner or later.
They're a formidable bunch, the Chinese People, in my limited experience!
Unless we hit it first and drag them in with us.
China owns a lot of our debt.
There is so much debt in the world today held by all of the industrialized nations. It is only a matter of time before one fails and starts a cascade of failures.
I had not thought of this. I took the news reports of Xis campaign against corruption at face value.
I had not occurred to me that the anti-corruption campaign was a façade for purging opposition or rivals.
Communist have not been so subtle in the past. I guess it is a convent ruse in a government with so much corruption. Is some member of the party causing you grief? Find out how he is paying to send his child abroad to college and accuse him of corruption.
The most likely cause of a major economic crash in China will be the refusal of the larger part of the Free World to cooperate in their unfair trade and currency manipulation.
As long as American DemoRats, Crony Capitalists and Globalists are willing to accept Chinese bribes, that will not happen, even if the Free World had maintained their manufacturing infrastructure to replace Chinese manufacturing.
Don't hold your breath waiting for a loss of Commie control of Crony Capitalist China.
The NSC has no doubt briefed President Trump that China's systemic weaknesses make her vulnerable, even fragile, and that China could implode into massive civil disorder. While this would end China's menace as a potential rival to the US, it would also disrupt the US and world economies, which have come to rely on the output of China's factories and its demand for natural resources as drivers of economic growth. Worse, a Chinese collapse would present a nightmare of a security challenge like that of the Soviet collapse as China's weapons and technical talent went onto the black market and her internal rivals brandished nuclear weapons at each other.
I really do not get, where the “China is headed for a great crisis” critics are coming from.
They are out-producing us and everyone else. They are selling a massive amount of what the world consumes, and they really do not have any reciprocal trade, back to support America, or anywhere else.
It is time for America (it is long past time, for America indeed) to refocus on rebuilding our own country.
We have been sold badly down the tubes, by presidents of both parties. For decades.
It is time to rebuild America.
Because despite the economic numbers on paper, the regime is weaker than it appears.
The Chinese (especially young Chinese) are going to tire of their political oppression sooner or later. And the ghosts of Mao’s Cultural Revolution have not been escorted off premises yet. The baggage will eventually need to be dealt with. I think that’s the article’s point.
The election of Donald Trump was not only a blessing to us dear Americans, but a blessing to the entire world...I believe the Trump admin will make deals in ways that serve our interests, but also prevent catastrophes for offending parties (like China) - yet pave the way for freedom to emerge organically from within those countries...as can be seen right now in Iran. (All the protests and uprisings!)
A long way to go, but still a sign of things to come...
At this point, a debt deflation would ultimately be a major boon to the US. Cost of raw materials, food, and rents would come crashing down. Incomes would be less, but money would go a lot further and we could re-direct those raw materials back into our own industries assuming Trump can get the economy primed for it again. We can beat China with high tech factories and our greater resource might if we can get business conditions and infrastructure straightened out.
Under the Clinton, Bush, and Obama years US industry was going the way of Russia with deindustrialization.
But would debt deflation occur in a vacuum?
The only thing that props up the dollar is faith in the US to pay its debts. If it perceived that we are no longer good on debt, if those debts will no longer be paid in full the dollar will become worthless.
If the world loses its faith in the US all of the dollars held abroad as Hard Currency could come flooding back to the US as foreign holders of dollars unload them on to the market.
The US could suffer hyperinflation overnight.
China as one the largest holders of dollars could dump their holdings as an act of retaliation for a perceived slight at any time.
Any large holder of dollars dumping their dollars is going to start a run on the dollar as the holders of dollars try to salvage any value stored in dollars.
Chinese economy rode the wave of financial bubble and grew fast. Its economy has not undergone restructuring and consolidation which can provide firm foundation for their rise to the next level. The shakeout comes with painful economic adjustment, and China is ill-equipped to handle it. A majority of Chinese are still poor, and serious economic downturn could lead to a life where they have to worry about getting the next meal everyday. Such a pain could easily lead to a popular revolt.
The share of aging population is also rapidly rising. Even if they somehow miraculously fend off an acute crisis, they could head into long-term stagnation like Japan with heavy debt burden. Keeping unity would be increasingly difficult. More prosperous regions would not want to share the burden caused by backward regions inside China. There will be strong temptation to break away and maintain their prosperity. In short, when push comes to shove, they want to go their way to save their ass.
Just about every major economy today has a huge debt problem. Some are in better shape than others. Surprisingly, U.S. is one of the stronger ones. When crisis hits, more money will flood into U.S. than go out. China has a serious capital flight problem. Much of it found its way to U.S., driving up real estate price in many places. The financial crisis first started in U.S. and its ripple effect hit all corners of the world. Those places are the ones which are likely to fall first before U.S. does.
Notice how when talking about uprisings, Gordon Cheng, an apologist, omits the 1989 Tienanmen massacre?
What would any uprising look like? One only has to revisit the Tienanmen massacre documents where at least 10,000 people were murdered. The utter brutality of the squelching of that uprising would put ISIS to shame.
When citing the 10000 number, one must understand that there were some number of bodies in the 2000 range. Hospitals were forbidden to take in any but security people.
What happened to all the others? The 27 Army, mechanized, under orders to shoot or be shot, used tanks and armored personnel carriers with heavy machine guns mounted to bring order. On arriving, they formed up and opened fire on the crowds even other military units. When the large crowds of students were quelled, they used the APCs to pulp the bodies, then bulldozers to pile up the human pulp, burned it, and then used fire hoses to wash what remained into the sewers. How many was that? 10000 is likely a minimum, maybe a lot more.
In China, you only have your life at the sufferance of the government, which may not be so much particular to Communism, but historic.
Now that the middle eastern Islamic threat is put down, the real story will get the light of day. Civilization is coming apart at the seam China and Iran are the beginning.
This is going to be a VERY interesting year.
> The US could suffer hyperinflation overnight.
Possible, but as long as the US dollar is the primary index for oil, it’s unlikely. However, if the Chinese were to sink a US aircraft carrier group I think hyperinflation would soon follow. Once people lose faith in a government the velocity of that currency goes way up and sea powers like the US tend to have sudden rises and sudden collapses from power.
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