Polls: Trump '1 state from winning presidency'

Worldnet Daily ^ | 9/19/2016

[cba123]

The Republican nominee is ahead in four battleground states won by Obama in 2012, Iowa, Ohio, Florida and North Carolina.

If he were to win those four states plus Nevada, Trump would be one state away from winning the presidency, concluded Ben Shapiro in the Daily Wire.

The Washington Post reported Monday the Clinton campaign is now "pessimistic" about winning Iowa and Ohio, and they believe Florida and North Carolina will be close, Shapiro noted.

Shapiro pointed out that while Clinton maintains a strong lead in Pennsylvania - 6.6 points according to the RealClearPolitics average - there are other battleground states trending in Trump's favor that would put him over the top.

Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2016/09/polls-trump-1-state-from-winning-presidency/#hkPcxLwCjEphmttx.99

[NYC-RepublicanCT]

Nevada should already be red on your chart.

NH and Maine CD2 gets him to 270. Curious why, since it's so important, aren't there any recent polls in NH???

[NYC-RepublicanCT]

I’m surprised. I really don’t see how NM can be considered red at this point. WISH that was true.

[henkster]

Very nice breakdown, thank you.

I think NV, CO, WI & MI are possible flips. While Trump should still campaign in PA, I’m not putting much hope there. PA will not be the swing state. If Trump takes PA, it’s only because it’s a blowout everywhere.

[Liz]

It’s a strange election year....who’d have thought Trump got this close to winning?

[cableguymn]

Check the cemeteries.. that is where she will get the bulk of her votes.

[InterceptPoint]

Yes, Nevada should be but the point of my post was to start from a sort of worst case point where Trump does win Ohio, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina and then look for the combinations that can win it for him.

I agree that Nevada should go for Trump. If so then there are lots of ways for him to win.

[OrangeHoof]

IF (big IF) he can take Nevada, that one extra state is Colorado. If Trump wins Ohio, Iowa, Florida and North Carolina, then the combination of Nevada and Colorado gets him over 270 WITHOUT having to win Pennsylvania, Michigan or Virginia. If Trump takes out the other states and wins one of those three, it’s Game Over. But he doesn’t need PA, MI or VA to win as long as he can reel in OH, FL, IA, NC, NV and CO.

But, folks, we’re still over a month away and you know the Dems will have something dirty up their sleeves so this is no time to relax or celebrate. But the panic we are seeing from the Left tells us they *know* they are in real trouble of losing so don’t let up on them.

[Gargantua]

The only way these scum can pretend that it's even a close race is by relying on "averages" of a bunch of outdated polling results. These lying filth are headed for The Big One, and it'll shake the ground on which they writhe and tremble.

I'd like to personally thank every one of the venal pigs who have pushed us to our limit. Had they not, we wouldn't be storming the gates with The Donald leading the charge.

These pigs are done for.

[NYC-RepublicanCT]

Honestly, I believe that even with all Hillary's problems, anyone else would have been down 10 points. None could have withstood the media bias plus $145mm in ads... Trump is still standing...

Trump is the right guy at the right time

[Liz]

No question....the right guy at the right time....

[Gargantua]

50-State sweep, will make Reagan's win look like a squeaker. I've been saying this for well over a year now.

I live in Massachusetts and do quite a bit of driving. Trump signs are everywhere, and I still have yet to see one "Hillary" sign or bumper sticker. Not one!

Trump has thousands of overflow at every event, while Hillary can't get 1,000 to even show up.

It's the math, stupid.

[nathanbedford]

Because of several distinct disadvantages listed below, it is imperative that Trump keep the favorable trend going. The good news is that two do that he must not win the debate but rather simply look presidential. The people are looking for an alternative to Hillary and all Trump must do is give it to them, that is, he must not make any serious gaffes and he must generate an aura of gravitas. When he becomes acceptable in image as a president, he wins. That means that he must turn off the Gaff machine, keep the tweets in check and not wander away from the Teleprompter as he did, for example, in recommending that Hillary be disarmed.

The major obstacles to Trump's election are as follows:

1. The electoral college is stacked against him so that he must virtually run the table in the battleground states to win. That implies that he needs insurance somewhere such as Colorado, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and even Pennsylvania or some combination in case of a slip up in running the table.

2. The air war. Trump has demonstrated a positive genius for transforming the election from a conventional battle of commercials to a new air war in which he exploits free media. He's done wonderfully but there are limits to that approach especially when Hillary's attacks go unanswered and Hillary has unlimited money to pick off one or two battleground states with attack commercials. Another reason why insurance is needed.

3. Hillary has an impressive ground game simply because she is the inheritor of all of the constituency groups of the Democratic Party based on unions, race, immigration etc. Worse, Hillary has inherited the revolutionary ground game which exploits data mining from Barak Obama and exploits that data in a way never seen before the 2012 election in places like Ohio. If Hillary is within three points in many of these battleground states the advocates of this new revolutionary electioneering approach say they will win and there is ample reason to believe them. Even worse, Donald Trump really has no ground game, certainly no digital mining ground game to compete in the same 21st-century league with the Obama version. The Republicans claim that they have fashioned such a tech savvy ground game but that claim is to be treated with suspicion in view of what happened to Romney who gave us the same assurances but whose computers not only failed to deliver a grand game but actually crashed on election eve.

4. The media is obviously redoubling its efforts to defeat Trump.

5. The race card, Barack Obama has behaved the abominably in exhorting African-Americans to vote for him to save his legacy. Look for that to accelerate, to be reinforced by the media, and to be extended to include Hispanics.

All of these negatives require a very disciplined campaign on Trump's part, a prospect upon which history tells us not to assume, a bit of luck, a black swan event in the stock market or by terrorists, another Hillary collapse or any combination of these in order to assure that the trend will continue unabated.

[MNJohnnie]

Trump should win VA. Recent polling puts him in a dead heat.

[henkster]

Very good analysis, and I agree with it. Trump has done very well in the past month, but he does face all the headwinds you identified.

Despite all of that, Hillary Clinton can lose this election in five minutes. Another health failure at a debate, any one of the three, will do it. I don’t know if she has the stamina to go 90 minutes under the stress of a debate.

Also, remember the polls in 1980. Admittedly, poling was a more primitive process 36 years ago. But Reagan won easily when it was not clear he would win at all. The reason he won was a visceral reaction among the American electorate that Jimmy Carter just wasn’t presidential material. Despite all of the anti-Reagan propaganda, which is similar to the attacks on Trump, the American people decided they just couldn’t vote for Carter.

I see much of the same with Clinton; she is untrustworthy. When it comes to trust and credibility, she simply does not have it with the American people. And so when they go to the polls, it is my hope they have the same visceral reaction that they just can’t trust her enough to push the button.

Yes, America has changed a lot in 36 years. The electorate has been dumbed down, and expects their government to “take care of them.” But I remain a firm believer in the constant of human nature, and that tells me that people simply won’t follow someone they do not trust.

[KavMan]

Isn’t TRUMP also leading in NV & COL?

and doesn’t VA have alot of Military there?

[LibFreeUSA]

"Do not count Pennsylvania out."

Everyone should keep their eye on PENNSYLVANIA.

It all boils down to PHILADELPHIA vote count, which has provided a MARGIN of 348,000-467,000 +votes for Democrat presidential candidate in last 3 Presidential elections.

If Trump can keep the PHILA COUNTY (D) victory below 400,000+, then he will win the state!

[Voluntaryist]

That map assumes 3 EV from Maine and no loss of 1EV from Nebraska.

[Blue Turtle]

Keep running like we’re 57 states behind ;)

[um1990]

1 EV (Maine CD2) is in the bag. The question is whether he can pull out 3 (statewide win, but loss in CD1) or 4 (state & CD sweep, doubtful)

[FourtySeven]

I believe in the next month his strategy should be to concentrate on PA most heavily, because he has a real shot of winning there. OH, FL then NC also. In that order of importance.

CO and NM are inconsequential I don’t know why those two (CO especially) is so highly valued by everyone. You’re talking 14 EV’s, combined, between the two of them. They are huge states geographically the logistics of hauling around those two states is no small matter. It’s not worth the time for 14 EV’s.

One of them should go to Trump anyway with decent advertising and maybe one rally. Beyond that though it’s a waste of resources.

IMO.