Tropical Depression One Public Advisory (from NOAA)

BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS FORMS EAST OF FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 79.1W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM NNW OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

Discussion (from NOAA):

000
WTNT41 KNHC 010314
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

Convection associated with the area of low pressure off the east
coast of Florida has increased and become a little more organized
during the past few hours. Radar data shows that the convection has
developed into a band over the southeastern and southern portions of
the circulation. Based on these data, advisories are being
initiated on the first tropical depression of the 2014 Atlantic
hurricane season. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, which is
in agreement with data from the earlier Air Force reserve
reconnaissance aircraft mission.

The south to southwest motion of the cyclone over the past couple of
days seems to have slowed this evening. The initial motion
estimate is 225/2 kt. The model guidance indicates that the
depression should begin to move slowly westward tonight and early
Tuesday. After that time, a building mid-level ridge over the
western Atlantic will begin to steer the cyclone northwestward
then northward. A large deep-layer trough that is forecast to
approach the eastern United States in a couple of days, should
cause the cyclone to turn northeast and accelerate. The model
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there is
still significant uncertainty on how close the system will get to
the coast of the southeastern United States.

Low shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track
are expected to allow gradual strengthening during the next few
days. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on
Tuesday and this is in line with all of the reliable intensity
guidance. The NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the
SHIPS/LGEM guidance. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is
forecast to interact with the aforementioned trough and become
extratropical by day 5.

Due to the expected close approach of the system to the coast of
east-central Florida and likely strengthening during the
next day or two, a tropical storm watch has been issued for portions
of that area. Interests elsewhere along the coast of the
southeastern United States should monitor the progress of this
system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 27.6N 79.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 27.6N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 28.0N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 28.8N 79.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 30.1N 79.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 33.0N 78.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 38.0N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 43.0N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

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