Just one more note. What is also interesting in this paper is that noone is discussing the fact that the 1999 and on numbers (which this AGW’er accepts as correct) are way below the IPCC forecasts.
Assessing just how badly the IPCC did is difficult because of the sloppiness of the IPCC forecasts—you really can’t tell what the meaning of their “confidence intervals” are. But if they are typical confidence intervals (95%) bands, the probability that the IPCC forecasts are too high is very large (I ran those numbers about a month ago and was suprised that noone is talking about just how far off the IPCC was.)
Even if you toss the IPCC confidence intervals and use the IPCC temperature forecasts only, it is still highly probable that the IPCC forecasts are too high.
I’ll try to find these numbers and post them here.
Sloppiness or willful distortion?