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To: cinives
I see nothing in the article indicating any analysis of how it will impact the larger economy.

Just throwing these possibilities out there:

Liquidity at the top end of the financial markets will dry up. Mortgage backed securities will go down in value. This will hurt share prices of any companies investing in them or earnings of companies originating/selling them. Redemptions from funds that hold them will suck up liquidity. Holds on redemptions will follow, which locks up liquidity of investors.

Liquidity at the bottom end will dry up. More diligent underwriting and tighter lending standards will remove even more buyers from the market, further depressing home prices and hurting builders, Realtors, title companies, insurance companies.

As the velocity of money slows, the efficiency of the markets deteriorate. Falling asset prices result. This makes people feel poorer and more conservative about spending, thus, the retail sector will suffer.

The Fed cuts rates and prints money, but that pushes the dollar to a tipping point, and China, Japan, and others dump out of the dollar, causing it's collapse.

Hillary raises income taxes, capital gains, and death taxes, and institutes a new personal property tax on the wealthy (anyone with a job) to pay for national sickness care, and surrenders in Iraq and Afganistan.

-OR-

Just a bump in the road to Dow 20,000 by 2010.

82 posted on 08/09/2007 12:39:56 PM PDT by JTHomes
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To: JTHomes
Hillary raises income taxes, capital gains, and death taxes, and institutes a new personal property tax on the wealthy (anyone with a job) to pay for national sickness care, and surrenders in Iraq and Afganistan.

I'd like to say LOL to that but I don't want to get complacent ...

All of the things you say are possible and even likely - my point was simply that the article made none of them.

I do think liquidity is too good and some tightening needs to occur. The M & A activity was getting excessive, IMO. On the one hand the retail sector may hurt a bit because people can't use their houses as an ATM and spend money on stuff, but on the other falling house prices mean more people will be paying reasonable prices for houses without needing 100%LTV or interest-only mortgages to qualify.

None of this, however, stops the precipitous increase in health or grocery or tuition costs. For that we need Congress to lower taxes and get out of trying to run the energy, education and health care companies and organizations.

Madam Shrillary will only make it all worse.

83 posted on 08/09/2007 1:57:36 PM PDT by cinives (On some planets what I do is considered normal.)
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