Joe Ford Jr. jumps into political ring (Harold Jr.'s cousin running for "family" seat!!

A member of the Ford family has joined the race for Tennessee's Ninth District congressional seat, running, of all things, as an outsider.

Joe Ford Jr., son of the Shelby County commissioner, filed Friday to run as a Democrat.

A Los Angeles resident who left Memphis for college, Ford is moving back to the Ninth District to "give back to the community," he said.

Ford, 32, who practices entertainment and contract law, said he brings real-world experience and is not a career politician.

"I think a lot of things wrong with politics in Memphis and the state of Tennessee and the nation in general is that people just run for one seat and if they don't win it, they run for another one," he said.

While critics might apply that description to members of his family, a political dynasty if there ever was one, he said, "I'm not specifically calling anyone out."

The seat, which has been held by members of the Ford family since the early '70s, is being vacated as Harold Ford Jr. (Joe Ford Jr.'s first cousin) runs for the U.S. Senate. That departure has opened the flood gates of prospective candidates, with 25 filing as of Friday.

A number of them have strong ties to the Ford family, including Harold Ford Jr.'s former campaign manager, Nikki Tinker, and County Commissioner Julian Bolton.

Bolton said Friday that he expects many others will file to run for the seat and that the community will see a vigorous race. Joe Ford Jr.'s decision to file Friday, Bolton said, does not affect his close ties to the family.

"I was surprised about Joe Ford Jr., with him not really having a presence in the community, but you can't control people's ambition and their right to run," Bolton said. "(Voters) will have a chance to select the very best of the best in the community."

Joe Ford Jr. said he has not sought Harold Ford Jr.'s endorsement or counsel. Nor does he feel entitled to the seat because of his family.

"I do not feel like it is a Ford seat," he said. "If people are going to vote for me because my last name is Ford, don't vote for me."

Rhodes College political science professor Marcus Pohlmann said Ford's name in the race furthers the chance of a close outcome.

"This obviously adds an already familiar name to an already crowded field, which will further splinter the vote," Pohlmann said.

County Commissioner Joe Ford said his son, who made the decision to run on his own, would carry on the same representation that's filled the seat for more than three decades.

What I am about to say may sound crazy, but I think that the only rational thing for Harold Ford, Jr. to do is declare that he will indeed run for reelection to the House while simultaneously seeking the Senate seat. Ford can't afford having Cohen on the general-election ballot potentially depressing black turnout and otherwise creating an upheaval in Memphis when every man, woman and child there needs to be working for his Senate win if he's to have any chance at all. He might take some lumps for not being "confident enough" to leave his House seat, but he can claim that he was asked by his constituents to run for reelection so as to eliminate the possibility of a divisive House primary tht might hurt the Democrats in the gubernatorial and Senate races, while still having the intention of winning the Senate race and serving all of the people of Tennessee. He could also promise to announce his resignation from the House, effective January 3, 2007, the moment that he is certified as the winner of the Senate race, allowing time for a special primary in late November and a special general in mid-December so that the new Congressman may be sworn in on January 3 with the rest of Congress. (How are special elections run in TN, DJ? Does everyone run in one ballot and the top-two guys (regardless of party) go on to the run-off if no one gets 50% (as is the case in some states that don't otherwise have a run-off)? If that's the case, then a special election would reduce the odds of Cohen being elected to the House, since the general would likely feature two Democrats, Cohen and a black guy.)

As for the legality of Ford running for both races simultaneously, I'm sure that TN law prohibits him being on both ballots simultaneously, but I believe such a restriction violates the U.S. Constitution. When states passed term-limit laws for Senators and Representatives, the laws did not say that the person could not be elected to more than X terms (which even the states knew would be unconstitutional), bu that the person *could not appear on the ballot* for more than X terms. The Supreme Court ruled that states could not add qualifications for Senators and Representatives beyond those contained in the Constitution (age, residency, years of citizenship), and that denying candidates access to the ballot because of an extra-constitutional qualification violated the Constitution. So if I were Harold Ford, Jr., I would file to run for reelection.

Remember, while a person may not be able to serve simultaneously as Senator or Representative, it's far different to deny him the opportunity to run for both offices and then deciding where to serve. If a sitting Senator who is not up for reelection runs for the House, he can decide if he wins which seat he'll keep; running for both seats would be the same thing.

Firstly, Junior is already committed to running for the Senate, so his running for the House as well is out (as far as I understand, you can run for multiple offices at the same time in TN, so I believe he could run for both, but I'm unclear as to whether he could be NOMINATED for more than one office at the same time. John Jay Hooker does this in every election, often running for multiple nominations).

However, if he did run and win both the House and Senate races at the same time, setting up a special election, you'd still have the exact same situation we have now... a total free-for-all on the Democrat side with the likely recipient being Sen. Cohen, the strongest White candidate, and a very fractured situation amongst Black candidates. There has not been a special election in TN for a Congressional seat since here in the 5th when Bill Boner vacated to become Nashville Mayor in 1987. Each party holds a special primary (of course, all the action being on the Dem side), and you could get nominated as long as you got 1 more vote than your opponent. The '87 special primary featured 3 main players, Bob Clement, who had moved into the district after 5 years earlier nearly winning the GOP 7th district against Scumquist; Phil Bredesen, then a business exec just on the heels of a loss to Boner for Mayor; and Jane Eskind, a former Yankee liberal RINO carpetbagger-turned-'Rat who had been a political fixture and candidate for office since the '70s. Eskind and Bredesen spent over a million each destroying one another, allowing Clement (ostensibly the most Conservative of the bunch) to sneak past Bredesen, winning a surprising 40%. Clement easily won over a Republican businessman in the early '88 special-general.

In any event, as you can see, Ford would only serve to delay the inevitable primary mess that will probably see Cohen win (and, Ford's stunt would also cost the state taxpayers a fortune to fund that primary - which would really make him look bad were he to try it, you see how that "hedging your bets" stunt worked for Lieberman in '00, who realized he probably wasn't going to win for VP but didn't want to be out the Senate seat, which might've helped booster the GOP ticket).

The real interesting event will be in '08, because unless Cohen somehow becomes canonized within the Black community in the interim, Junior might try to come back and get his seat (or if he doesn't, another group of Black pols fighting one another). If Cohen can get to 35-40% in a fractured field this year and in '08 (in the absence of Junior or Junior and a lot of others), he is golden. Another interesting thing, if Cohen vacates his state Senate seat mid-term, take a guess which party gets to appoint his successor ? Having a White Republican in Auntie Ophelia's seat and perhaps even a Black Republican in Cohen's would just be like pennies from heaven. ;-D

"I'm unclear as to whether he could be NOMINATED for more than one office at the same time. . . .

However, if he did run and win both the House and Senate races at the same time, setting up a special election, you'd still have the exact same situation we have now... a total free-for-all on the Democrat side with the likely recipient being Sen. Cohen, the strongest White candidate, and a very fractured situation amongst Black candidates."

As I explained, if TN law doesn't allow a person to be on the general-election ballot for both U.S. Senator and U.S. Representative, such law violates the U.S. Constitution.

I think Ford running for both offices would almost certainly solve the problem, not postpone the inevitable, since Ford will lose the Senate election. Thus, he wouldn't have to resign from the House in January of 2007. And if Ford somehow managed to win the Senate race, he would be able to endorse and campaign for one particular black candidate and thus increase the likelihood that a black candidate will beat out Cohen for the nomination (Ford's hands are tied right now, since he needs all Memphis Democrats to support his Senate race and thus can't endorse any of them, but if he is elected to the Senate then he can endorse one knowing full well that when he's up for reelection 6 years later no one will remember). I think the votes that Ford may lose from people who don't like the fact that he's running for both offices will be fewer than the votes he'd lose from black Memphis Democrats staying home because Cohen won the nomination.

"Another interesting thing, if Cohen vacates his state Senate seat mid-term, take a guess which party gets to appoint his successor?"

Why would his successor be appointed? If Cohen vacates his Senate seat, there would be a special election to replace him, just as there was when Junior Ford's uncle resigned from the Senate. I assume a black Democrat would be favored to win that special election.

"I think Ford running for both offices would almost certainly solve the problem, not postpone the inevitable, since Ford will lose the Senate election. Thus, he wouldn't have to resign from the House in January of 2007."

Ack ! I just realized I got so caught up in my scenario, I was presuming Junior would win the Senate contest. Perish the thought !

"And if Ford somehow managed to win the Senate race, he would be able to endorse and campaign for one particular black candidate and thus increase the likelihood that a black candidate will beat out Cohen for the nomination (Ford's hands are tied right now, since he needs all Memphis Democrats to support his Senate race and thus can't endorse any of them, but if he is elected to the Senate then he can endorse one knowing full well that when he's up for reelection 6 years later no one will remember). I think the votes that Ford may lose from people who don't like the fact that he's running for both offices will be fewer than the votes he'd lose from black Memphis Democrats staying home because Cohen won the nomination."

Oh, it's an interesting scenario, but he's just not going to do it. I still wonder if he truly realizes this Senate run is quixotic at this point, but he's already committed to it. Presumably the candidate he would prefer would be his cousin. I was rather surprised that the Fords didn't attempt to clear the field for Junior's younger brother, Sir Isaac, but he failed to jump into the race.

"Why would his successor be appointed? If Cohen vacates his Senate seat, there would be a special election to replace him, just as there was when Junior Ford's uncle resigned from the Senate. I assume a black Democrat would be favored to win that special election."

Whomever is appointed can often get the jump on winning the special. The Republicans (which last I checked had a 1-vote majority on the Shelby County Commission) would be able to appoint his successor. I'm not entirely clear what the racial demographics of the district are.

"Whomever is appointed can often get the jump on winning the special."

Wait a second, the county commission appoints temporary senators until the special election os held? That just sounds wrong. When Junior's uncle resigned in disgrace, I don't recall the county commission appointing anyone; the seat was vacant until the special election was held and Aunt Ophelia "won."

I think you may be confused with the power that county-level parties may have to nominate candidates when the party's nominee drops out after the primary was held (such as when the Bucks County GOP selected Fitzpatrick when Greenwood retired and the Cook County borough presidents selected young Lipinski to replace his father).

Yup, the county commissions are empowered to "select" both Senators and Reps (in some cases, opposite to the party of the resigning or deceased incumbent). There was a Democrat appointed when the RINO Rep. Chris Newton resigned, but the special was won by a Republican. For some odd reason, and I don't know why I'm blanking on this, but I thought there was an interim Senator for Ford's seat (unless I'm thinking Roscoe Dixon's vacancy). It's rarely reported in the news, unless you go to a local source, when a person is appointed (and that, perhaps only a sentence or two).

"What happens when there's a vacancy in a legislative districts that is in more than one county?"

That's a good question, I'm not sure. I could be absolutely wrong on this, but I think the home county of the incumbent would be the one to decide.

"And in case that there's a district in one section of a large county, do all of the commissioners vote (e.g., if a heavily conservative state house district in southern Davidson County has a vacancy, do all of the county commissioners vote or just the ones from the region?)?"

To my knowledge, all of the county commissioners would participate in a vote. Alas, I know more about the procedure in Memphis/Shelby County than I do my own (but there hasn't been a vacancy situation in at least 20 years or longer, one reason why I'm not well-versed).

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