Posted on 08/24/2005 4:29:11 AM PDT by Chairman_December_19th_Society
We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!
Good morning!!
Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nation's military who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY #3
000
WTNT42 KNHC 240857
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE NIGHT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE IS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT OVERALL THE CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED THAT IT WAS 12 HR AGO...ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 75-90 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 45 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 925 MB IN THAT AREA...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM SURFACE WINDS.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE WINDS ARE SO FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...AND NONE OF THE BAHAMAS STATIONS ARE REPORTING MORE THAN 20 KT WINDS... IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS...THE CYCLONE REMAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/6. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. LARGE-SCALE MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...FORECAST THE WEAKNESS TO FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U. S. MOVES EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD IN 24-48 HR...TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE GFS KEEPS A WEAKNESS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO STALL OVER FLORIDA AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD BY 120 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AND CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO CROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF.
THE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE OLD TRACK AND IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND A POCKET OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT. ONCE THE CYCLONE CONSOLIDATES...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 55-65 KT AS IT REACHES FLORIDA.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL BRINGS IT TO FLORIDA AS A DEPRESSION.
THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE REASONABLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE SHIPS MODEL...CALLING FOR A 60 KT INTENSITY IN 48 HR. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE OVER FLORIDA...THE RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA LATER TODAY... POSSIBLY INCLUDING A HURRICANE WATCH IF THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS MORE RAPIDLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE... ARE QUANTIFIED IN AN EXPERIMENTAL NHC TEXT PRODUCT ISSUED WITH THIS AND EVERY ADVISORY PACKAGE DURING 2005. THIS PRODUCT PROVIDES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. THE PROBABILITIES OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE SIMILAR AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0900Z 24.0N 76.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 24.7N 77.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 25.5N 78.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 25.9N 78.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 26.1N 80.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 26.5N 82.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 28/0600Z 27.0N 84.0W 55 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 29/0600Z 28.0N 86.5W 65 KT
$$
In other news...
Nine states in the northeastern United States have decided to sip the Kyoto kool-aid. In a regional agreement, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont have decided that power plant emissions of carbon dioxide, in the aggregate, will be frozen at current levels and then reduced by 10 percent by 2020. Most interesting, the deal was done through confidential(!!) memoranda between the governors of those states. THE PEOPLE OF THESE STATES HAD NO SAY!
The mother of Michael Jackson's accuser in the recent trial has now been charged with welfare fraud.
The Secretary of Homeland Security has said that increasing border security along the United States southern border will be a priority.
For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.
You are DOOMED!!
:-)
I'm a she
Happy Birthday, SY and a belated Happy Anniversary to you both.
I had forgotten what an excellent writer David McCullough is. I looked for some of his work at Half-Price Books last weekend, and found a copy of Mornings on Horseback, about Theodore Roosevelt, which I am going to start this week.
Do you have someone to drive you to your treatments if you need assistance? My understanding is that sometimes radiation treatments can leave you feeling a bit queasy. Take care of yourself, please.
And congratulations on your tenth anniversary. I hope you have many more.
Who looks like Glenn Close.....:-)
Have you read A Patriot's History of America?
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=A+Patriot%27s+History+of+America&btnG=Google+Search
co-written by a fellow FReeper
Greta, no doubt realizing that the public is sick of Aruba, has been combing the missing persons records for the next lovely victim. I see she has settled on the model in Ohio.
ABG, Ben Veniste made a stupid mistake by calling in to that talk show and making that comment. He is a lawyer who is no doubt techno-challenged, and he probably doesn't realize that disbanding a research group doesn't mean the technology disappears.
Besides, if the information had come from a group of informants who were disbanded, would the information have been ignored because the group no longer existed? Of course not.
I hope that all the tests/treatments turn out okay for you ONG. thanks for giving us "the latest"
I loved the three movies you recently rewatched. the scenery in Cold Mountain was glorious. Of course the two Gibson movies get watched frequently. wonder if DVDs can wear out?
break over..
Proudly married to SittinYonder 10 yrs last Friday 8-19-05
I thought it said: Partially married to SittinYonder 10 yrs last Friday 8-19-05
Was wondering how the two of you accomplished a Partial Marriage.
In any event, congratulations on your accomplishment
And welcome to ATRW. We hope you'll drop in often.
But this I do know, HAPPY BIRTHDAY SittingYonder!
Hope you have a great day.
My prayers are with you. Safe travels.
lol, he's the he I'm the she.
I've never met this person before, but she goes all over FreeRepublic telling people she's married to me.
But nonetheless, thank you all for the happy birthday wishes. I had planned to take Dog's advice and not mention it.
I'm the he, eyespysomething is the she.
Thank you.
Welcome Sittin!
Thank you for the recommendation, and welcome to ATRW. I am here so seldom I'm certainly not on the welcoming committee... but I do recognize most of the new "faces".
Congratulations also on your recent wedding anniversary, and the "proud" in your tagline is so very meaningful.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY SITTIN!
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