Posted on 10/15/2004 10:50:42 PM PDT by Libertarian Nationalist GOPr
I'm hanging my hat on your last comment in particular. It's what I was telling my friends in June when they were taunting me with polls saying Kerry was ahead. Bush had just spent the last year being based without response by the Dem candidates and their media allies, yet Kerry never built a significant lead. I'm hoping the same logic still applies. I'd sure like to see W consistently hit 50% in some of these polls soon, though.
Thanks for the welcome. I'm not a troll.....honest.
From your lips to God's ears. ;-)
Oh my. Well, get to bed. :)
Hope your map is right. Just out of curiosity......why did you switch the red/blue from the way most have been doing it (R-Rep; B-Soc.)
Can we safely assume foul play was involved?
To remind the idjit which lever to pull?....:)
Conventional wisdom? That didn't work very well in 2002 now did it?
We'll have to wait for the autopsy.
;-)
Those items you mentioned, Zebra.
Plus their wallets and pocketbooks.
Jack.
I hope they wait 'til the poor guy goes ~horizontal~ first...LOL!
" It is true that undecideds are almost certain to break heavily for Kerry?"
No.
Undecideds are undecided.
Otherwise they're liars.
I switched them because AnnaZ, whom I have a lot of respect for, suggested it on that thread, and because I have always have felt that red was a much more fitting color for the socialists/maxists amongst us, particularly for Kerry.
I disagree. In open elections, the most important internal is the favorability rating, which is very similar to but not quite the same (and not quite as predictive) as job approval rating of a sitting President. In 2000, the DUI hit hard at Bush's favorability rating just before the election, turning what was then a 3-4 point lead for Bush into a dead even race in the space of a few days.
When, as here, an incumbent is running for re-election, the undecideds who give the President a favorable job approval rating (and who actually vote) will usually end up voting for him. And vice versa. I'm not making this up -- Gallup has been tracking this type of data for six decades, and they say that the job approval rating is the single best predictor of a President's support on election day.
That trend is true, however, I think enough questions have been raised in the minds of undecided voters about Kerry, that he won't get as many as a "normal" 'Rat would. The flip-flopping, and the Swiftvets have raised a lot of doubts. Plus we are in a war with a strong sitting President at the helm. Have faith.
By the way, the new Swiftvets commercial is excellent. I saw it on the Tony Snow Factor last night.
its called wishful thinking on their part...its the only hope they have
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