Heads up - There will be no post for tomorrow, Monday. Will try to catch up on Tuesday
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
DATES TO NOTE -
.
ONGOING - EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.
***
WEEKEND - Pretty much the same level of warning as prior weekends. Mostly sign waving, vocal assemblies with low probability of violence. Situations can change quickly so be alert out there.
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Authorities are searching for a man who allegedly opened fire Saturday on Border Patrol agents in Chicago.
The shooter was behind the wheel of a black Jeep when they fired off the shots near 26th Street and Kedzie Avenue, as the agents conducted immigration enforcement operations on the city’s Southwest side, the US Department of Homeland Security wrote on X.
OBSERVATION - IIRC, the shooter has been captured.
***
Ilhan Omar went into a full rage, lashing out after other Somalian clans refused to back her clansman, Fateh and instead voted for Jacob Frey, calling for rival clans to be expelled and pushed out, especially since they were translating her Somalian speaking videos to the American audience.
Minnesota politics are turning into a Somalian primitive clan war
OBSERVATION - This is a potential development in the CW2 matrix I haven’t given much thought about. Fighting between various islamic factions. When moving towards a common goal, the mantra “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” will dissolve once that goal is achieved. Somalia is a hell hole because of this sectarian violence. Import the third world, become the third world.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Worsening situation with lack of ATCs rippling into people making travel plans for Thanksgiving. Flight cuts and uncertainty of the remaining flights causing a lot of problems.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Congress critters will be facing the talking heads today. Democrats increasingly trying to pin the developing woes of the shut down on republicans. Probably a lot regarding the 0bamacare / wuhan subsidy which has been at the front of the discussion over the past week. Democrat ‘compromise’ has been to add a one year extension to the 0bamacare subsidy as a solution to the current budget standoff. Discussions today may further expose democrats to the deliberate moves to make 0bamacare unmanageable in order to push for a universal health care run by the govt.
NOTE - for those of us who receive VA medical support - I wouldn’t wish govt run health care on my enemies.
No real evidence of any off ramp being suggested by democrats next week.
TRUMP Watch –
In addition to calling for the nuclear option to get past the filibuster, Trump is also calling for any health care subsidy to go directly to the people and not insurance groups.
Illegal Immigration –
Reports that it is anticipated that by the end of the year, nearly 700K will have been deported with over 2 million opting for self deportation.
For the sixth month straight, border interceptions have been essentially zero.
North/South Korea –
NK threatening SK and US as high level talks are taking place in Seoul. Pretty common bluster.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30-40 degree range, mostly cloudy with widely scattered showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s air defense shot down or suppressed 34 Russian drones overnight, including Shahed and Geran types. Out of 69 launched from multiple directions, 50 were Shaheds. Drones hit 9 locations across the north and east.
A Ukrainian strike hit the TPP‑1 power plant in Voronezh, Russia, which supplies four city districts and over a thousand businesses, including the key Voronezhsintezkauchuk plant. Following the hit, parts of the city were left without power.
Russian losses per 09/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+970 men
+5 tanks
+1 ACV
+19 artillery
ISW. The rate of Russian advances in the Pokrovsk direction has temporarily slowed but will likely increase again in the coming days as Russian forces extend logistics and bring reinforcements in the area.
ISW. Geolocated footage published on November 6 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced into northern Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk), a relatively small quantity and area of assessed Russian advances in the Pokrovsk direction compared to recent days.
Ukrainian military sources have indicated that Russian forces are somewhat slowing down their offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction while waiting for reinforcements and are attempting to establish defenses and extend logistics into southern Pokrovsk.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Recent ISW commentary on the fighting around Pokrovsk pretty much matches what I’ve expected. They have a larger staff and more resources scouring the fight than i do :). The ability for Russia to produce any meaningful resupply will be seriously challenged due to Ukraine FPV drones with artillery backup hitting those resupply missions long before they can get to Pokrovsk. Ukraine has a better reinforced supply train, though also threatened. As I’ve noted before, Ukraine is using old fishing nets to cover supply routes, causing drones to get snagged up and unable to strike target vehicles. Russians working towards the same but not as advanced as Ukraine.
A light drone attack overnight, so Friday nights attack may have been the big one for the week. Late reports indicated that a broad sector of Ukraine’s power grid was hit. Russia is just as vulnerable, with recent Ukrainian drones hitting not only petroleum families, but power plants and key power switchyards as well - spreading the misery of power outages over substantial areas of western Russia as well.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Israel waiting for Hamas to release the next body of an Israeli
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Al-Qassam Brigades: Israel bears full responsibility for the clashes with our fighters in Rafah who are defending themselves within an area under their control.
OBSERVATION - Hamas isn’t the only jihadi group in Gaza. AQB is a smaller group more closely aligned to Iran, due to being Shia versus the primary Sunni Hamas.
Hamas is charging ‘rent’ to those residing in tented refugee regions in southern Gaza.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
More Israeli actions including large air strikes as Hamas positions within the “Yellow Zone” continue to be reduced and rubbled. Rumbling that Hamas my delay or even withhold delivering the bodies of Israelis they still hold in exchange for safe passage of trapped Hamas forces continue to float around.
More pressure on Lebanon to uphold its promise to disarm Hezbollah. Clock is ticking down to the end of the month where a window of more intense Israeli operations may start, given that the US has given Lebanon until that time to get its act together.
Given the massive power and drinking water shortages in Iran, it is unlikely that the mullahs will initiate any kind of overt combat towards Israel or the US. Iran is expending a lot of money and materials trying to get Iraqi militias up to speed to be a threat to Israel. Those militias, however, are not really well liked in portions of Iraq. Even the shia in Iraq don’t really like these Iranian shia militias as they are a challenge to their power.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Over the past 4 weeks, Iran has exported nearly 2.3 million barrels of crude oil per day. These are numbers haven’t seen since the early half of 2018.
OBSERVATION - IIRC, this would be a sanctions violation. Iran rushing in to get these sales, filling the growing vacuum of Russian oil shutdowns before sanctions get ramped up against it.
***
Water crisis in Tehran and other locations continues to grow with civic officials struggling to come up with solutions. Evacuating a city that size will only create water shortages in the places they are evacuated to.
Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025
Threat level ELEVATED due to growing probably of expanded Israeli targeting of Hezbollah sites.
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The Israeli army announces that it killed a Hezbollah member in an airstrike in the Barasheet area of southern Lebanon
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Reports from Lebanon indicate that two senior U.S. National Security Council officials will arrive in Beirut tomorrow to meet with the Lebanese president and warn him to halt Hezbollah’s funding sources.
Syria -
Syria: on first day of the large scale anti-ISIS operation, 61 raids were conducted across different provinces and 71 individuals arrested. A number of medium and high-level IS figures were captured. Some of them were hiding in areas with Christian & Druze presence (Homs) Seized equipment includes weapons, IEDs, grenades, ammunition and a thermal scope
***
Interim Syrian president Joulani to meet with Trump today.
Misc of Note –
A “small” X class flare fired off directly at earth yesterday. NOAA and others assessing the size of the CME associated with it and the size of any solar storm.
Thanks Godzilla.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Sweden’s King Carl Gustaf XVI sparked controversy at the UN COP30 summit in Brazil after questioning the push for higher Western climate payments.
“How much are we actually supposed to pay?” he asked, later adding, “Everyone has to take their own responsibilities and do the best they can.”
He also noted that EU states produce just 6% of global emissions, saying, “Europe produces only 6% of emissions and everyone still complains… But the rest of the world is much, much worse.”
https://x.com/osint613/status/1987587088468848950?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - All is not happy at the COP. Trump’s brutal takedown of the scam and crushing economic consequences hitting Europe is starting open eyes to the one sidedness of their annual proclamations and goals for reductions.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
DATES TO NOTE -
.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.
***
With the passage of the CR, the threat of SNAP/EBT riots have dropped to near zero.
***
The largest gang in the city of Chicago is known as the Latin Kings. It has more than 25,000 members, and the leaders of the gang have just issued a “shoot on sight” order for any federal agents that are involved in immigration enforcement operations in the city…
Needless to say, thousands of the members of the Latin Kings gang came into this country illegally. And they are willing to kill to keep from being deported.
https://patriot.tv/open-warfare-has-erupted-on-the-streets-of-chicago/
OBSERVATION - The illegal immigrant sector of the CW2 matrix is becoming increasingly hot. Gangs in Chicago several months ago before the current ICE surge began threatened officers. Now their aggressiveness if being further encouraged by the anti ICE actions of local and state govt. Over the weekend, Department of Homeland Security told Fox News in a statement that U.S. Border Patrol was conducting “immigration enforcement operations” near 26th Street and Kedzie Avenue when an unknown male driving a black Jeep fired shots at agents and fled the scene.
It getting hot out there.
***
Antifa and far-left rioters surrounded a campus building where a TPUSA event is taking place. They are urging violence & have been chanting in celebration of Charlie Kirk’s m—rder.
The violent Antifa attack at UC Berkeley on the TPUSA event was organized by the violent outsider Antifa group, By Any Means Necessary (BAMN). The group was involved in organizing prior Antifa attacks on the campus and in the city.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1988077883265265887?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Arrests of BAMN/Antifa elements reported in addition to assaults on TPUSA attendees and supporters.
BAMN is led by teachers. National organizer, Yvette Felarca, is a middle school teacher at Berkeley. Nov 2019 Felarca was convicted and sentenced to community service in an assault at the CA capitol during a counter protest in 2016.
This action was seen as an extension of the Berkeley riots of 2017.
February to October 2017, there were 11 demonstrations in the streets and parks of downtown Berkeley, many of them violent. The “Battles of Berkeley” It was most notable in regards to the arrival of “Based Stick Man”
Felarca is extremely violent.
OBSERVATION - It has been a while since BAMN popped into the headlines. Campus TPUSA meetings and rallies are beginning to see increased violence from the left and its presence on UC Berkeley was more than they would stand for. Expect similar, increased violence in other dark blue, marxist campuses.
***
Word coming from the organizers for the 22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition” that part of their direct action plan is to seize control of govt offices - probably congressional republicans.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The filibuster is busted and the CR is moving forward. Here are some key concessions from the Republicans
- Funds Government Through the End of January
The deal funds the government through Jan. 30. This would give appropriators time to come up with long-term bills to fund the government through the end of the fiscal year, which is Sept. 30.
- Includes 3 Full-Year Appropriations Bills
The agreement includes three full-year appropriations bills wrapped into one, also known as a “minibus.”
- Funds SNAP Through Fiscal Year
- Reverses Cuts to Government Workers
The measure reverses cuts to the federal workforce that occurred during the shutdown.
- Guarantees Vote on Extending Obamacare Subsidies
The bill provides that a vote will be held in the second week of December to extend the subsidies under the Affordable Care Act.
OBSERVATION - Some very minor concessions by the Republicans.
***
Democrats are in meltdown. Demands for schumer to step down as minority leader. Screams from democrats of “Trump hurting America” are being replaced with “We haven’t hurt America enough”.
As noted, very minor concessions. The extension of Obamacare Subsidies is coming for a separate vote and will not get the 60 votes needed to pass filibuster or even general vote in the senate.
The 0bamacare subsidies is becoming the attempt to refocus democrat unity following last nights bash up. They are trying to blame the republicans for the health care mess. I don’t think they are getting out of the starting blocks very well on that argument. Republican have to hammer in that fact that the subsidies were built into the original bill to end in 2025 and that the recent funding was a wuhan special act. This money will only go to big insurance companies who will raise rates to absorb the billions of dollars coming to them.
Remember, before 0bamacare, direct, non insurance payments for some procedures were half what the hospitals got from insurance companies. Those cash payments were banned by 0bamacare. Remember, we were to see our costs lowered by $2k/year, instead saw them rise. Remember we were supposed to keep our doctor and policy if we like it. - A lot to remember and remind the population of just who any health care crisis belongs to - the Democrats.
TRUMP Watch –
President Donald Trump has issued a broad pardon proclamation extending clemency to dozens of allies who faced prosecution over efforts to challenge the results of the 2020 presidential election.
The order, signed and released by the White House, declares the pardons part of an effort to correct what the president called a “grave national injustice” and move toward “national reconciliation.”
“This proclamation ends a grave national injustice perpetrated upon the American people following the 2020 presidential election and continues the process of national reconciliation,” the document reads.
The proclamation grants “a full, complete and unconditional pardon to all United States citizens for conduct relating to the advice, creation, organization, execution, submission, support, voting activities, participation in, or advocacy for or of any slate or proposed slate of presidential electors, whether or not recognized by any state or state official in connection with the 2020 presidential election, as well as for any conduct relating to their efforts to expose voting fraud and vulnerabilities in the 2020 presidential election.”
Among those named are several high-profile figures who became central to post-election investigations, including Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s former personal attorney and former mayor of New York; John Eastman, one of Trump’s lawyers involved in election-related legal strategies; and Tyler Bowyer, a senior member of Turning Point USA.
In total, the list includes more than 70 individuals.
OBSERVATION - Unraveling the parallel lawfare efforts of the democrats under biden. Good to get it done now before it can come to influence any midterm discussions.
Japan –
Japan’s new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, has been compared to the legendary Iron Lady, Margaret Thatcher. She’s living up to that comparison by bluntly telling a parliamentary committee on Friday that if communist China were to blockade Taiwan, it would threaten Japan. For daring to speak the truth, a Chinese consul general threatened to cut off her head on social media before deleting the post.
https://rairfoundation.com/chinese-diplomat-threatens-behead-new-japanese-prime-minister/
OBSERVATION - She is definitely bringing a new dynamic to the far east and interactions towards China.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Personnel Issues –
The Kremlin has begun involuntary partial reserve call-ups as part of its wider initiative to build out its active reserve, likely for use in combat in Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Troop build up has only one purpose - to try to accelerate the capture of as much of Ukraine before Russia’s reserves of funds, people and material hit the wall in 2026.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30-40 degree range, mostly cloudy with widely scattered showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched 119 drones overnight, mostly Shaheds, targeting frontline regions and Odesa. Ukrainian air defenses downed or jammed 53 drones, but 59 struck 18 locations. Russia targeted the Odesa region, damaging energy and transport infrastructure
Ukrainian attack drones just successfully struck Russia’s Saratov oil refinery, setting the facility ablaze. The refinery, owned and operated by Russia’s Rosneft, processes about 7 million tons of crude oil per year.
Russian losses per 11/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1020 men
+1 ACV
+17 artillery
+1 MLRS
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces are exploiting heavy fog and poor weather to push light vehicles into southern Pokrovsk. Ukrainian sources confirm the conditions are hampering drone operations, making it harder to spot and strike Russian movements. However, Ukraine is still having a lot of success intercepting most of these vehicles before they reach Pokrovsk. Around 300 Russian troops now operating inside the city, according to Ukraine’s 7th Air Assault Corps.
ISW. The situation in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area remains difficult as Ukrainian forces fight to hold the shoulders of the pocket and Russian forces continue to advance in the area. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Pokrovsk continues to be the focus of fierce fighting. As noted, Russians again are trying to exploit fog to infiltrate more forces into the town. Currently they have teams in the Ukraine rear areas interrupting supply and support missions in addition to attacking from the rear, Ukraine front positions. 300 can cause a lot of trouble.
As ISW notes, the front line in Pokrovsk has a degree of fluidity with both sides gaining and losing. Ukraine reports that Russia has assembled a force of 50,000 to push the assault. As long as Ukraine can hold the flanks, the positions can be maintained. The counter attacks against the northern Russian salient is aiding that effort and diverting forces away from Pokrovsk.
Ukraine defenses have somewhat stabilized with reinforcements and this forces Russia to commit more troops in even riskier operations.
Putin is desperate for a victory here, and so far it seems out of reach in the near term. Should Russia eventually prevail, it will be at a substantial cost of men and equipment that will work to stall our operations across the rest of the front.
Europe / NATO General –
Romania activated its air defense overnight as Russian drones approached during the attack on Odesa. At 01:09, authorities reported a suspected drone crash about 5 km south of the border. Military teams are investigating what may be drone debris on Romanian territory.
Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level ADVISORY - OCT 26, 2025 -
Pakistan’s defense minister declared the nation “in a state of war” after a bombing in Islamabad left 12 people dead.
OBSERVATION - Claim being made that Afghan terrorists set of the bomb.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Standoff over the trapped 200 Hamas terrorists continue.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
US Envoy Witkoff:
The 200 “fighters” (of Hamas) trapped in Rafah may be the test for the model of Hamas disarmament. Will they be able to raise their hands, hand over their weapons, and leave...”
Hamas leadership says that it refuses to have the 200 surrender under any circumstances.
———INTERNATIONAL ————————
The Prime Minister’s Office clarified:
“There will be no presence of Turkish forces on the ground as part of the international force that will be responsible for enforcing the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip.”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel standing firm, either the Hamas elements surrender, or die. There is no acceptable alternative.
Across the rest of Gaza, IDF continues to reduce the size of the Hamas controlled pocket within the “Yellow Zone”
In the north, Israel continues to keep the pressure on Hezbollah and the Lebanese govt by striking Hezbollah leaders and hitting ammo dumps and other Hezbollah facilities.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Following reports of extremely low water levels in Tehran, the authorities in Mashhad - the country’s second-largest city - have also announced that the city’s water reservoirs have dropped below 3% capacity.
In Tehran, there is a pollution alert on top of all the other power/water chaos.
***
Iran has reportedly developed a new uranium enrichment site codenamed “Pickaxe Mountain” adjacent to Natanz and has refused to allow international inspections of it.
In addition, Iran’s missile factories are said to be “working 24 hours a day” in order to mass-produce an arsenal in preparation for a potential Israeli attack.
If Israel strikes, Iran plans to drop thousands of missiles on Israel simultaneously as opposed to sending them in waves.
(AF Post)
OBSERVATION - They have to create a new site - the old one has been rubbled. Iran is throwing a ton of money trying to rearm both its ballistic missile wings as well as buff up their air defenses - all at a cost of ignoring epic power, water and pollution crisis’.
As with a lot of their threats in the past, the ‘thousands’ of missile threat is a paper tiger. Iran was maxed out on its missile launch capabilities in the last war, and lost a lot of TELs in the process as well as a lot of silo based systems. It will take considerable years for them to produce enough launch sites and vehicles to lobe thousands of missiles in one salvo towards Israel.
Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025
Threat level ELEVATED due to growing probably of expanded Israeli targeting of Hezbollah sites.
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The Iranian regime has managed to smuggle at least $1 billion to its terrorist proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon despite heavy sanctions this year, top officials at the U.S. Treasury Department say.
Iran boasts funding via cryptocurrency and smuggling by third party elements.
OBSERVATION - Corruption is part and parcel for much of the middle east. You can bet some Lebanese govt official has become wealthy looking the other way.
***
Local Lebanese channels report fires breaking out in multiple areas following IDF airstrikes on Hezbollah positions. Reports that ammo dumps being targeted.