“War in Ukraine Drains Nearly Half of Accessible Russian Reserves” (National Wealth Fund)
Early in 2023, Russia was on track to exhaust their remaining financial reserves in their National Wealth Fund, by Christmas. They took significant measures to delay that, by raising taxes on oil revenues near to de facto nationalization of the industry (still titularly in private ownership, in the Fascist economic model), and gutting non-defense spending.
They were also lucky with a surge in oil prices from July through November (which has since reversed). Russia sinks or swims on the price of oil.
This excerpt from the article you linked, I believe correctly states the Russian approach.
““If the situation regarding energy prices is completely negative, we will use the National Wellbeing Fund,” Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told reporters last month. “But if we see that it decreases (too far), then we will take other budget balancing measures. It’s clear that we are not interested in nullifying the National Wellbeing Fund and sitting without a penny in reserve.””
This is what happened in 2023 - they did draw down the Wealth Fund in a straight line, but avoided total depletion through targeted tax increases, domestic spending cuts, larger budget deficits and ruble printing.
So that seems likely in 2024 as well. They will likely go far with other measures, to avoid reaching a completely illiquid situation with their Wealth Fund.
They are still running huge deficits (even bigger than 2023), with oil/gas revenues down, and defense/security spending up. There is no other elephant in the room like the oil industry was last year, that can produce significantly more tax revenue, without more broadly taxing the economy. The people will likely have to feel it more (after the election, of course).
The Wealth fund was not only used to cover part of the deficit last year, but also to shore up the Russian stock market and the Russian currency. If it gets to the point that they have to sell the stock they bought, or stop supporting the ruble with purchases, either or both may drop - perhaps crash at some point (maybe not in 2024, but maybe).
Expanding the Russian money supply continues apace, even as they have 16% interest rates to subdue the resulting inflation. Something could break on those fronts as well, with inflation getting out of control, or the currency crashing.
Of course, much rests on the price of oil throughout the year.
Bottom Line: They have not fixed the underlying problem of deficits consuming their reserves. They are just spreading the costs around and trying to finance it, to kick the can down the road till later - but they are juggling dangerous margins, that keep getting worse.
When all else fails, they will be left printing rubles to make up the difference. Let there be money! Hello Argentina, Turkey and Zimbabwe.