Posted on 09/30/2023 5:22:09 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
In case you haven’t already heard, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is going to run for president as an Independent after being sidelined by the Democratic establishment in favor of backing President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign. This turn of events was not surprising given that Kennedy has positioned himself as a Democratic maverick of sorts.
As with most third-party runs, Kennedy likely will not win the presidency. However, he is now in a place where he can have a significant influence on the outcome of the election, acting as a spoiler. The question is, which side will his candidacy harm the most?
Kennedy could likely gain substantial support from disaffected Democrats, many of whom do not wish to see Biden serve a second term. These folks are likely to have become disenchanted with the party, which hasn’t seen fit to allow Kennedy to debate Biden on the national stage.
On the other hand, Kennedy has found favor with a wide swath of Republican, and even Libertarian, voters who appreciate his stance on vaccines. This adds yet another layer of complexity to this question.
Let’s start with the Democrats. Kennedy’s departure from the traditional Democratic playbook has been anything but subtle, with his “attack ads” against the DNC. He is clearly trying to appeal to voters who have become disillusioned with the party – and for good reason.
Even though Kennedy has been a polarizing figure on the left, he still wields the Kennedy name, which goes with the Democratic Party like peanut butter goes with jelly. Despite the favorable impression he has made on right-leaning Americans, Kennedy remains an ardent leftist in his positions on climate change, the economy, and other important issues. It is mostly his opposition to vaccines and his perceived penchant for unpopular conspiracy theories that could repel some Democratic voters.
Still, polling suggests that an enormous chunk of the Democratic electorate is unhappy with Biden and would have rather seen someone else take up the mantle. Yet, the DNC was loath to even consider such a thing, which means there might be a lot of left-leaning voters who might see a Kennedy candidacy as a middle finger against the establishment -- just as Republicans did with former President Donald Trump.
On the other hand, we cannot overlook the potential threat Kennedy could pose to the eventual Republican nominee. RedState’s Bonchie laid out a compelling case arguing that the GOP would suffer the most from a Kennedy candidacy.
This is not good news for Republicans, and there's empirical evidence to back that up. According to the latest polling, RFK Jr. enjoys a very high approval rating among Republicans while he's extremely disliked by Democrats.
If this does happen (and it's a big if!) it could easily backfire on the GOP nominee. Kennedy is significantly more popular among Republican voters than among Democrats. QPac poll found him +30 among GOP, -43 among Dems. Siena had him +36 among Trump voters, -35 among Biden.
This data is impossible to ignore.
Kennedy could cause tremendous damage to the Republican nominee, especially if his name happens to be Donald J. Trump. The former president’s staunch support of COVID-19 vaccines has eroded some of his anti-establishment bona fides with members of the conservative base. It is possible that many of those who supported Trump in 2016 and 2020 would not have a problem with voting for a Democratic -- or anti-establishment -- leftist candidate. Indeed, much of Trump’s support came from people who previously supported Bernie Sanders’ bid for the White House – and he’s a full-on socialist.
Of course, there is also the possibility that Kennedy could cause an equal amount of problems for both sides. Polls have indicated that in a match-up between Biden and Trump, a significant percentage would consider voting for a third-party candidate.
A recent poll conducted by NewsNation and Decision Desk HQ revealed that nearly half of voters are opposed to a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. The survey found that 23.38% of voters said they are very likely to consider voting for a third-party candidate if the two were to face off again, while 25.67% said they are somewhat likely to do the same.
When asked about potential third-party candidates, Senator Bernie Sanders emerged as the top choice with 20.60% support, followed by former Wyoming GOP Representative Liz Cheney at 10.25% and Senator Joe Manchin at 7.20%. Additionally, the poll highlighted the ongoing unpopularity of President Biden, with 54.24% of respondents expressing disapproval of his job performance.
However, we have seen polls like this in the past. While people say they are open to thinking outside of the uniparty box, they quickly change their minds by the time they get to the ballot box, where they pull the lever for Team Red or Blue. The fear of throwing away one’s vote and letting the party they detest win is a powerful motivator.
Still, this shows that Kennedy might not make as big of a splash as it might seem for either party.
If I had to put money on it, I would say Kennedy will do slightly more damage to the Republican candidate given his popularity on the right for his stance on vaccines. Indeed, many Libertarians, who might normally vote for the GOP, have been so enamored with his rhetoric on vaccines that they have been willing to overlook his authoritarian stances on guns, the economy, climate change, and other policies.
This does not necessarily mean that Kennedy could get enough support to singlehandedly throw the election to one side or the other. But regardless of which party wins, the race will likely be pretty close. The question is: Will the numbers be close enough for Kennedy to influence the outcome?
Red State Trump haters with zero creds.
Not to mention highly idiotic data analysis.
RFK seems to be a common sense kind of guy, BUT, let’s remember the DAMAGE the Kennedy Clan has caused in the past.
He is, after all, a Kennedy. How many Republicans would want to pull the lever and take a BIG CHANCE??
NOT ME.
If you look at the three states trump won, she definitely helped. Remember he won by 17,000 votes. He got in by the skin of his pants. Anybody but Hillary could have beat him.
Quit calling Democrats democratic. They are despotic.
See which party sets out to destroy RFK, that’s a good sign of who’s concerned......
I hope so.
Well said.
They’re commies, plain and simple.
RFK Jr would handily win the White House if he were the D nominee, and I say that as a Trump supporter.
However the D party will never let him be their nominee.
3rd party, I don’t honestly know how that will play out.
I think he’ll siphon votes off from both sides, if he gets any real attention.
The media has done everything. They can to suppress him as a D nominee.. if you suddenly find him all over the MSM media once he’s an independent then the powers that be have concluded he’ll suck more Trump votes than Biden votes. If he still is being suppressed after he goes I then they have concluded he will siphons off more D votes
If it’s RFK or a McRomBush candidate, I will vote for RFK.
I’m just wondering...
Trump will win the Republican nomination. Will DeSantis strongly support him afterwards - and what effect might that have as to this 3rd party issue?
“With DeSantis Republicans and one-third of independent voters, that’s the RFK Jr. coalition.”
That’s kind of a silly thing to say. I am supporting DeSantis in the primary but will vote for Trump if he’s the nominee.
And truth is, other than Fauci and vaccines, there’s not much difference between Trump and RFK, Jr. — especially since Trump is trying to ride the fence on abortion now.
Even this website is filled with morons who think RFK would have been a great running mate for Trump. The guy is a lawyer who spent his life working for leftist advocacy groups.
I think the Kennedy cachet is long gone. He will siphon votes from DemocRATS. That’s why Biden won’t give him Secret Service protection. Cynical in the extreme.
The Uniparty.
just another fly in the ointment. Just another distraction to get attention during another crooked election and ballot counting in swing states.... The democrat presidential candidate will be the president in 2024. BMA
It is an interesting question, with so many having views complete with statistics and such. As a republic using democratic procedures, I'd be willing to guess that nobody knows. Lots of time between now and the presidential election. Much can change. Note that "republic" and "democratic" above are spelled with lower case letters, because they are not parties, as when spelled with upper case.
A republic using democratic procedures, assuming fair elections ( which is a huge assumption these days ) will win.
If the presidential election is fraught with corrupt practices, the deep state -- the capitalized Deep State Uni-Party -- is assured of a "win." Which is a loss for these United States of America.
The real test will be how Liberal MSM Treat Kennedy when he announces.
Do they Welcome Him or Trash Him?
That will tell us all we need to know.
I fully agree that Democrats mindlessly vote the party, and from my observations many simply because their parents did and grand parents did.
But there has got to be some level headed people out there that traditionally vote dem that are waking up to realized the rat party is not the party of JFK, that the rat party is literally destroying America. I think many will identify with RFK Jr and see him as an acceptable alternative to the evil monster they see in Trump.
Will the R's hammer on this point if RFK does run? Even if they do, will the fact actually appeal to younger, more recently schooled D voters and aid in fracturing the D vote?
IMO, at this point it is nothing but imponderables, but my money is with william clark -
The threat to the GOP is that a third-party candidate of any stature will make Democrat cheating easier to disguise.
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