Posted on 09/30/2023 5:22:09 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
In case you haven’t already heard, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is going to run for president as an Independent after being sidelined by the Democratic establishment in favor of backing President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign. This turn of events was not surprising given that Kennedy has positioned himself as a Democratic maverick of sorts.
As with most third-party runs, Kennedy likely will not win the presidency. However, he is now in a place where he can have a significant influence on the outcome of the election, acting as a spoiler. The question is, which side will his candidacy harm the most?
Kennedy could likely gain substantial support from disaffected Democrats, many of whom do not wish to see Biden serve a second term. These folks are likely to have become disenchanted with the party, which hasn’t seen fit to allow Kennedy to debate Biden on the national stage.
On the other hand, Kennedy has found favor with a wide swath of Republican, and even Libertarian, voters who appreciate his stance on vaccines. This adds yet another layer of complexity to this question.
Let’s start with the Democrats. Kennedy’s departure from the traditional Democratic playbook has been anything but subtle, with his “attack ads” against the DNC. He is clearly trying to appeal to voters who have become disillusioned with the party – and for good reason.
Even though Kennedy has been a polarizing figure on the left, he still wields the Kennedy name, which goes with the Democratic Party like peanut butter goes with jelly. Despite the favorable impression he has made on right-leaning Americans, Kennedy remains an ardent leftist in his positions on climate change, the economy, and other important issues. It is mostly his opposition to vaccines and his perceived penchant for unpopular conspiracy theories that could repel some Democratic voters.
Still, polling suggests that an enormous chunk of the Democratic electorate is unhappy with Biden and would have rather seen someone else take up the mantle. Yet, the DNC was loath to even consider such a thing, which means there might be a lot of left-leaning voters who might see a Kennedy candidacy as a middle finger against the establishment -- just as Republicans did with former President Donald Trump.
On the other hand, we cannot overlook the potential threat Kennedy could pose to the eventual Republican nominee. RedState’s Bonchie laid out a compelling case arguing that the GOP would suffer the most from a Kennedy candidacy.
This is not good news for Republicans, and there's empirical evidence to back that up. According to the latest polling, RFK Jr. enjoys a very high approval rating among Republicans while he's extremely disliked by Democrats.
If this does happen (and it's a big if!) it could easily backfire on the GOP nominee. Kennedy is significantly more popular among Republican voters than among Democrats. QPac poll found him +30 among GOP, -43 among Dems. Siena had him +36 among Trump voters, -35 among Biden.
This data is impossible to ignore.
Kennedy could cause tremendous damage to the Republican nominee, especially if his name happens to be Donald J. Trump. The former president’s staunch support of COVID-19 vaccines has eroded some of his anti-establishment bona fides with members of the conservative base. It is possible that many of those who supported Trump in 2016 and 2020 would not have a problem with voting for a Democratic -- or anti-establishment -- leftist candidate. Indeed, much of Trump’s support came from people who previously supported Bernie Sanders’ bid for the White House – and he’s a full-on socialist.
Of course, there is also the possibility that Kennedy could cause an equal amount of problems for both sides. Polls have indicated that in a match-up between Biden and Trump, a significant percentage would consider voting for a third-party candidate.
A recent poll conducted by NewsNation and Decision Desk HQ revealed that nearly half of voters are opposed to a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. The survey found that 23.38% of voters said they are very likely to consider voting for a third-party candidate if the two were to face off again, while 25.67% said they are somewhat likely to do the same.
When asked about potential third-party candidates, Senator Bernie Sanders emerged as the top choice with 20.60% support, followed by former Wyoming GOP Representative Liz Cheney at 10.25% and Senator Joe Manchin at 7.20%. Additionally, the poll highlighted the ongoing unpopularity of President Biden, with 54.24% of respondents expressing disapproval of his job performance.
However, we have seen polls like this in the past. While people say they are open to thinking outside of the uniparty box, they quickly change their minds by the time they get to the ballot box, where they pull the lever for Team Red or Blue. The fear of throwing away one’s vote and letting the party they detest win is a powerful motivator.
Still, this shows that Kennedy might not make as big of a splash as it might seem for either party.
If I had to put money on it, I would say Kennedy will do slightly more damage to the Republican candidate given his popularity on the right for his stance on vaccines. Indeed, many Libertarians, who might normally vote for the GOP, have been so enamored with his rhetoric on vaccines that they have been willing to overlook his authoritarian stances on guns, the economy, climate change, and other policies.
This does not necessarily mean that Kennedy could get enough support to singlehandedly throw the election to one side or the other. But regardless of which party wins, the race will likely be pretty close. The question is: Will the numbers be close enough for Kennedy to influence the outcome?
The DC UniParty. He will siphon off enough votes to insure a Trump second term, which will make the DC UniParty, its Deep State Military Arm and the MSM, its propaganda arm endangered.
He polls around 14% with Dems.
Democrats will vote the party.
Independents and Republicans vote the person.
This will give the Democrat the win as has happened before with third party .
Then they're not libertarians. Just liberals.
This is not good news for Republicans, and there’s empirical evidence to back that up. According to the latest polling, RFK Jr. enjoys a very high approval rating among Republicans while he’s extremely disliked by Democrats.
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This rings true to me, although I don’t claim to be an expert. His “anti-vax” (although that may be an accurate term) optics probably ingratiated him more to republicans than democrats. So if he runs without a (D) next to his name, it’s only the Kennedy name that could possibly pick up some democrat vote, but the name alone does not have much potency anymore. We even even currently have a sitting US congressman republican named John Kennedy.
Ugh. Speculation and guessing.
According to Mediaite with the exclusive first story, Robert Kennedy Jr. will announce his transition from a candidate on the Democrat ticket to a candidate on the Independent ticket for the 2024 presidential contest. RFK Jr. will make the announcement on October 9th, in Pennsylvania.
(Via Mediaite) 2024 presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. plans to announce he will run as an independent on October 9 in Pennsylvania, Mediaite has learned.
Kennedy’s campaign machine is now planning “attack ads” against the Democratic National Committee in order to “pave the way” for his announcement in Philadelphia about running as an independent, according to a text reviewed by Mediaite.
“Bobby feels that the DNC is changing the rules to exclude his candidacy so an independent run is the only way to go,” a Kennedy campaign insider told Mediaite. (more)
My thoughts are the same today as they were when we first discussed RFK Jr.
None of the Lightbringer’s supporters/voters and ballot harvesters are going to support RFK Jr. None of the leftists who follow social media or traditional media influence operations, the sheeple masses, are going to vote for RFK Jr. None of the party Democrats are going to vote for RFK Jr. None of the Gavin Newsom supporters are going to support RFK Jr.
ANSWER: Two core groups.
#1) Ron DeSantis supporters. When RdS drops out, his coalition of support, the Never Trump Republicans, will flow to RFK Jr.
#2) Approximately one-third of unregistered, unaffiliated or what we would call “independent” voters. About a third of them.
Independents will fracture into three subsets.
With DeSantis Republicans and one-third of independent voters, that’s the RFK Jr. coalition.
As I said from the outset, RFK Jr. is the intelligence community insurance policy against the threat of Donald Trump.
RFK Jr. running as an independent will tilt the election to Gavin Newsom.
Stop thinking about RFK Jr. taking votes from Biden. Unfortunately, this will be the narrative; this will be what is polled. However, Joe Biden will not be the DNC nominee.
The correct question is, what does RFK Jr. running as an independent do to the 2024 contest when it is Gavin Newsom -vs- Donald Trump?
In that scenario, the motives and intentions of RFK Jr. taking votes from Biden, because Joe Biden is a blithering idiot, disappears. Democrats will happily stick with Newsom…. which is exactly why his visibility is everywhere right now. It’s an op.
RFK Jr. running as an independent, is part of that op.
Reset your reference point to the baseline where the intelligence operatives do not want you to be. When someone starts asking the question about RFK Jr. taking votes from Biden, stop them immediately. Joe Biden will not be the nominee. With Gavin Newsom as the DNC candidate coming out of Chicago, what does RFK Jr. do to THAT contest with Trump? That’s the question.
You all know the answer.
This is an op.
There is no more beautifully run intelligence operation than when the target
of the intelligence operation represents the interests of the intelligence operation.
The irony of a Kennedy is just a cherry on the operational cake.
Last point. Remember when I warned about “Q” back in 2018 ,and people got very, very mad at me for my position? Do you think it is accidental the Kennedy narrative stemmed from the “Q”-Anon origin?
Kennedy is anti-gun.
Tell me how that will attract votes from Trump’s base.
I would think it slightly better for Republicans.
He’ll take the milquetoast Rs that hate Trump, those lost in the middle, and young people who don’t want to vote for either geriatric.
The young are more D than R.
Whether CHUDs will actually go vote is another issue.
The Dems claim Jill Stein of the Green Party gave Trump the victory in 2016. Along with the Russians.
Neither. Because the parties are not owed votes. They’re supposed to EARN them. And if RFKj EARNS votes they didn’t, that on the parties.
Whoever votes for him wasnt voting for President Trump anyway
The same cant be said for the rats
The threat to the GOP is that a third-party candidate of any stature will make Democrat cheating easier to disguise
Well, the far lefties have 7 million new illegal alien “voters” with hundreds of thousands more on the way so I doubt they’ll be hurt.
Ask people 18-30 would they vote for RFK or Biden.
I know after this election, I am never voting for someone near, or over, median age of death.
If republicans vote for RFK because of vaccines, we’re in deeper trouble then thought. He’s not just against COVID vaccines, he’s against all vaccines. He and others like him are bringing back diseases that were eradicated. They are idiots.
Nader back in the day.
Democrats are brainwashed "orange man bad." That almost an entire political party is mind controlled like that makes the Democrats a cult.
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