Macgregor got everything wrong for a year.
He agreed with Russian delusions from the beginning.
His information, probably from Russian sources, was garbage, either Russian propaganda or the same BS the Russians were telling each other. He did not pick up on Russian weaknesses, even when they were bloody obvious. On video even.
And even in that his analysis was way off.
Even on tactical-operational details he was horribly wrong. He didn’t get that HIMARS put the Russians in a logistical trap in Kherson. The outcome was obvious and inevitable. Even the Russians knew this, and were eventually requesting permission to withdraw, a month prior, but not Macgregor.
His current assertions are certainly based on nothing better, and his analytic powers aren’t either.
As for General Mud, nope. There were dry weeks through the winter, and it’s obvious, say at Vuhledar (on lots of video), that the mud was not preventing tactical mobility.
What was preventing a Russian breakthrough was an inability to concentrate sufficient force and the necessary support and logistics for such. You saw (again on video) companies advancing where there should have been battalions. You saw pathetic attempts at mineclearing. You saw unsuppressed Ukrainian artillery taking advantage of immobilised vehicles.
I will leave the “why” of all that to you. But your assertions re the current state are, IMHO, very unsound.
In armor warfare, you don’t attack in column on certain dry areas— when you can’t protect your flanks. You wait until the ground favors you so that the entire front can be probed until the actual assault. Particularly against an opponent that doesn’t have the resources to reinforce the whole line.
Meanwhile, their defenses continue to chew up the Ukrainian army. The Russian military bides its time until the battlefield favors it, all the while amassing munitions to get the job done.
Meanwhile, if the Ukrainian army is going to oblige the Russians by wasting 14 brigades in Bahkmut, why would they attack? When the enemy is making a mistake, you don’t interrupt them. The Ukrainian infantry was very good. Now it is trashed. And yes, the worst is coming.
Macgregor tells you who his sources are: former commanders from Europeans nations whom he trained with and developed relationships with. Not Russians.
No one is talking about the air order of battle; now that the hypersonic are in full production, the HIMARS are going to go bye-bye, along with the make-shift IAD Ukraine is piece-mealing together and losing. Ukraine has no defense for it.
The US and NATO already know where this is heading. They could have given Ukraine every single tank the US Marine Corps struck from their inventory. 4 tank battalions worth and all the parts. But nothing. Instead, they schedule delivery of a handful of “brand new” tanks when this is all over. Nice.