Two days until Putin’s “Victory Concert” in Moscow…
Putin is completely screwed in Crimea.
U.S. President Joe Biden is in Kiev today to rescue his lunatic project of destroying Russia by proxy war. But there is no good way to do that.
A review of 'western' media shows that the inevitable outcome of the war is now recognized. The only still open alternatives are to risk a large nuclear war or to retreat from 'western' dreams of its permanent hegemony.
Few 'western' officials will admit that the war is lost, that Russia has won in Ukraine. But it has. It had won the war when it successfully trapped the Ukrainian army into a war of attrition.
A the Russian commentator Sacha Rogers writes (in Russian, machine translation):
This war has already been won (moreover, what is most offensive for various "unrecognized geniuses", without their participation and contrary to their foolish ideas of how it should be won). It was won at the moment when, instead of a highly maneuverable war, our General Staff imposed a positional “standing” with an attrition war on the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Strictly by the textbook: Attrition warfare is a military strategy consisting of belligerent attempts to win a war by wearing down the enemy to the point of collapse through continuous losses in personnel and material.
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But the Ukrainian army does not have the material and manpower ready to launch some kind of counter offense that would have a chance to be win the war. It doesn't even have enough to regain some significant territory.
The third army it would need would have to be much stronger than the two armies it has already lost. And its not coming.
@visegrad24 4h
BREAKING: La Republicca writes that Italy might donate 5 Tornado or AMX fighter jets to Ukraine.
@DefMon3 1h
"Kupyansk direction: RuAF captured Hryanykivka from which the AFU retreated last week."
The United States has formally determined that Russia has committed crimes against humanity.
The US Vice President publicly announced that at the Munich Security Conference.
It is now the US position, and requires war crimes trials, or at least formal charges, if the perpetrators are not in custody.
@ChuckPfarrer 21h
"BAKHMUT (UPDATE) /2145 UTC 19 FEB/ Bakhmut axis, with air strikes and air defense results updated by 1830 Local UKR General Staff Briefing."
@visegrad24 1h
BREAKING:
“New earthquake measuring 6.4 on the Richter scale strikes Turkey.
Plenty of buildings collapsing.”
Tank losses now seem to be biting away Russia’s fieldable ground combat power. The units are not reconstituting and returning quickly, indicating shortages (likely of many kinds - vehicles, parts, skilled personnel,etc.). That situation is likely to get progressively worse for Russia as tank losses continue to accumulate, in a land bristling with Javelins, mines, and precision Artillery.
Institute for the Study of War, RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 19, 2023:
“The absence of several elite and prominent WMD (Western Military District) elements from the Luhansk Oblast line and elsewhere in theater suggests that the Russian military continues to face challenges in reconstituting combat units and specifically tank units.
The WMD commands three army-level maneuver formations—the 6th and 20th Combined Arms Armies (CAA) and the 1st Guards Tank Army (GTA). The 20th CAA is heavily committed along the Svatove-Kreminna line, as noted above. ISW has only observed limited mentions of the 6th CAA and partial mentions of 1st GTA formations in Luhansk Oblast, however, and has not observed these elements anywhere else in theater, suggesting that some of these units and formations have likely not been reconstituted yet.
A delay in the reconstitution of tank units in particular could result from the fact that several critical (and previously elite) Russian tank units and mechanized formations have suffered devastating defeats over the course of the first year of the war.
The 1st GTA, for example, suffered massive losses during its assault in Chernihiv Oblast early in the war and then once again in autumn of 2022 during Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast. The 1st GTA’s 4th Tank Division, specifically its 12th and 13th Guards Tank Regiments, famously lost nearly 100 tanks (a full regiment’s worth) in a few days in September of 2022 (during their rout from Kharkiv Oblast last September).
Russian tank losses have been enormous in this war, amounting to the equivalent of around 16 tank regiments worth, which is likely hindering Russia’s ability to reconstitute its tank units rapidly. Recent intelligence estimates presented by Dutch open-source investigative organization Oryx and the British research institute International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) depict these losses clearly. Oryx verified over 1,000 distinct Russian tank losses and 500 captured tanks on February 9, which likely means that Russia has lost half of its pre-war tank fleet in the first year of the war. IISS similarly noted on February 15 that Russia has lost about 50 percent of its pre-war number of T-72B and T-72B3M main battle tanks.
A single tank regiment requires just short of 100 tanks, so rebuilding two tank regiments from scratch (as the 12th and 13thTank Regiments likely required) would demand 200 tanks, which the Russian armed forces do not appear to have in usable stocks and do not appear able to produce quickly.
Widespread tank losses also impact the capacities of motorized rifle formations to function effectively, but motorized rifle units require fewer tanks in each and can make better use of the large amount of relatively untrained manpower the rushed Russian reserve mobilization has generated. The absence of reconstituted tank regiments and brigades, however, deprives the Russian ground forces of the kind of punch required to make and exploit operationally significant breakthroughs—which may explain why the WMD has so far failed to make any.”
I wonder how much Russia can fund of the war, by pillaging the occupied territories?
ISW reports: “Crimean occupation parliament head Vladimir Konstantinov stated that Crimean occupation officials nationalized tens of billions of rubles (at least 10 million USD) worth of Ukrainian property and plan to use funds from the sale of the property to support Russian forces fighting in Ukraine.”
ISW reports: "ISW has not observed the commitment of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division (2nd MRD) of the 1st Guards Tank Army to combat even though the unit was reported to have deployed to Luhansk Oblast. (1st Guards Tank Army is generally covering the line from Svatove to Kreminna)... 2nd MRD elements are therefore likely being held in reserve in the rear of Luhansk Oblast and likely could deploy to the frontline in the future... The absence of the 2nd MRD from active engagement suggests that Russian forces are holding most of a division in reserve (roughly equivalent to an American Brigade).
@ChuckPfarrer 17h
"KREMINNA /0250 UTC 20 FEB/ The 19 FEB (1800 local) briefing of the UKR Gen’l Staff did not report any new RU offensive operations in the Kreminna Area of Operations (AO). UKR carries out 20 aviation strike missions."
"In my Bucha, all street lights are finally on. After some three months in the dark, which was very uncomfortable, the city has enough energy. And Putin may put his missiles up his..."
In an analyst note published Friday, Bank of America chief economist Michael Hartnett predicted a “no landing” scenario in the first half of the year, where there is no immediate slowdown in growth but inflation remains above trend. That would likely force the Fed to raise interest rates much higher than previously forecast - and keep them elevated for longer.
“No landing means no Fed pausing,” Hartnett wrote, warning that central bank tightening “always breaks something.” He projected the S&P 500 could tumble nearly 7% by early March as a result.
“As long as Ukraine needs our help, we will help it them” - Finnish Prime Minister, Sanna Marin
Biden’s Ukraine visit upstages Putin and leaves Moscow’s military pundits raging
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/20/europe/russia-reaction-biden-ukraine-visit-intl/index.html
How the Russian economy self-immolated in the year since Putin invaded Ukraine
https://fortune.com/2023/02/20/russia-economy-self-immolated-one-year-putin-invaded-ukraine-sanctions-energy-finance-europe-sonnenfeld-tian/
