Posted on 02/20/2023 7:44:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
It's a neocon think tank linked to Victoria Nuland that no real conservative would take seriously.
Let’s see who’s deluded...I will continue to predict Russia will control the regions they have annexed by end of this war. Let’s make a wager on that. Do you have the guts?
A wager? The lives of millions of people is not a parlor game. Hundreds of thousands of people are already dead because warmongering Russia has invaded Ukraine. You may be comfortably in your armchair tonight but for those millions facing genocide at the hands of Nazi Russia this is real life. Grow up.
More about the ISW:
The president and founder of the Institute for the Study of War is Kimberly Kagan, a military historian who is married to Frederick Kagan, who is also a military historian and does work for ISW. Frederick is a well-known neoconservative, though not as well-known as his brother Robert. In the 1990s, Robert Kagan, along with Bill Kristol (who is on ISW’s board), founded the Project for a New American Century, which in the view of some observers played an important role in convincing George W. Bush to invade Iraq.
Another HUGE jump in tank kills for tomorrows report.
And Kazan thinks this is RuZZia winning. What a dumbA.
Biden’s Ukraine visit upstages Putin and leaves Moscow’s military pundits raging
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/20/europe/russia-reaction-biden-ukraine-visit-intl/index.html
How the Russian economy self-immolated in the year since Putin invaded Ukraine
https://fortune.com/2023/02/20/russia-economy-self-immolated-one-year-putin-invaded-ukraine-sanctions-energy-finance-europe-sonnenfeld-tian/
You said ukraine would never take kherson. You were wrong.
Revealed: Leaked document shows how Russia plans to take over Belarus
https://news.yahoo.com/russia-belarus-strategy-document-230035184.html
I am not thde deluded moron who said:
“You’re nuts if you think Ukraine is capable of launching any effective counteroffensive. This just bullsh#t created in order to give cover to politicians that want to continue to pour money into this failed proxy war.
20 posted on 7/30/2022, 11:57:55 AM by Kazan”
ONLY TO HAVE THE RUSSIANS FLEE KHERSON AND KHARKIV REGION
“By the end of the next month, when Russia still possesses Kherson, your fantasy world comes to end.
17 posted on 8/30/2022, 6:58:44 PM by Kazan”
WRONG FANTASY WORLD CAME TO AN END.
“11/4/2022, 1:14:29 AM · 24 of 33
Kazan to Farmerbob
Russia will control Kherson both next week and for as long as any of us are alive”
“And, any attacks on what is now Russian territory means that the Russians will defend it as Russian territory.
Translation: They will use the full force of the Russian military and inflict hell on what’s left of the Ukrainian military.72 posted on 10/4/2022, 8:00:11 PM by Kazan”
SO WHY DIDNT RUSSIA DEFEND KHERSON?
“And, things will get worse, much, much worse as there has been a Russian buildup underway for weeks.
15 posted on 12/6/2022, 10:02:03 PM by Kazan”
AMOST 3 MONTHS LATER LATER RUSSIA CAPTURES ONE VILLAGE..
“Russia expert Gordon M. Hahn looks at the upcoming Russian Winter Offensive. Only with a ceasefire can Ukraine and its sponsors avert the upcoming catastrophe
We may be reaching the watershed moment in the Ukrainian war. No electricity, no army, no society.
7 posted on 11/25/2022, 7:56:15 PM by Kazan”
FOUR MONTHS LATER THERE STILL IS A UKA ARMY,ELECTRICITY AND SOCIETY
“The US is putting pieces in place to set up a buffer zone in Ukraine to prevent Russian forces from taking western Ukraine and perhaps even Odesa to prevent what’s left
of Ukraine from becoming landlocked.
31 posted on 10/23/2022, 12:12:25 PM by Kazan”
WHAT BUFFER ZONE GUESS IT WASNT NEEDED
“Russia continues to advance and will take all of Ukraine east of the Napier rive and the entire Black Sea coastline. Nothing is going to stop that from happening.
4 posted on 8/13/2022, 10:18:28 AM by Kazan”
ADVANCING BACKWARDS BY FLEEING KHERSON AND KHARKOV....
MY FAVORITE:
“The Russians are winning...easily. They own the air and sea and could turn Ukraine into a parking lot if the goal wasn’t a negotiated surrender.
6 posted on 4/2/2022, 6:43:01 PM by Kazan
OOHHHHHHH BUT NOW ITS A DELIBERATE SLOW WAR OF ATRITION!!
Making more friends are they, what happened to brothers from another mother blah blah blah
They proved what they thought of Ukrainians when they starved millions to death and sent thousands to work camps
“Ukrainian (forces have) absolutely no ability to go on the offensive and there is no reason to believe the(y) will before Russia clears out the annexed areas and fortifies them.”
Providing Ukrainian forces the ability to go on the offensive is publicly discussed and agreed upon every month at the Ramstein Conference, where the bills to do so are paid. The new Ukrainian Brigades being formed for the upcoming Counter-Attack Operation have been publicly named, and can be seen from space rotating through Grafenwoehr and Hohenfels Training areas in Germany, as well as the UK and Poland, among others.
You may be the only person on Earth to be surprised by this.
Hey beau
Book mark that one for kazan I don’t think it will age well lol
“Russia has an huge edge in manufacturing ammo and weapons”
So ridiculously untrue.
Russia’s entire GDP is smaller than that of Texas or California, or Italy, or France, or the UK, or Germany, or the USA - all of whom are manufacturing weapons for the Ukrainian forces. Combined, the GDP of the the nations providing lethal Military supplies to the Ukrainian forces is over 50 times that of Russia before last year’s invasion (which has since decimated Russia’s natural gas exports, and further damaged the oil revenues that it so heavily depends upon).
That is just relative size. Additionally, Russia has suddenly become the most heavily sanctioned country on Earth, and those sanctions are specifically designed to impair Russia’s Military manufacturing ability. The biggest single foreign provider of components for Russia’s Military supply chain before the invasion was - wait for it - the Ukraine. That is not happening anymore. Like ever.
Russia’s manufacturing capability is ate up, and the quality of the weapons that it did/does produce is far below that of the NATO standard gear that Ukraine is transitioning to.
It has been a year, and Russia has lost over 8 times as many people as the Soviet Union did in a decade in Afghanistan (when the Soviet Military was four times the size of Russia’s before this invasion, and the Warsaw Pact was on Russia’s side).
The Soviet Union lost to Afghanistan, which has roughly the same land area and population as the Ukraine, but Russia’s losses to the Ukrainians have been running at a roughly 100 times worse rate. Not 100% - 100 times over (two orders of magnitude).
“Another HUGE jump in tank kills for tomorrows report.
And Kazan thinks this is RuZZia winning.”
This is comedy Gold. Don’t let temporary irritation with having to contend with such foolish arguments, distract you from how outrageously laughable they are. Enjoy the moment.
From ansel12’s Fortune link on Russia’s economic implosion:
“Russia’s permanent loss of 1,000+ global multinational businesses coupled with escalating economic sanctions:
The 1,000+ global companies who voluntarily chose to exit Russia in an unprecedented, historic mass exodus in the weeks after February 2022, as we’ve faithfully chronicled and updated to this day, have largely held true to their pledges and have either fully divested or are in the process of fully separating from Russia with no plans to return.
These voluntary business exits of companies with in-country revenues equivalent to 35% of Russia’s GDP that employ 12% of the country’s workforce were coupled with the imposition of enduring international government sanctions unparalleled in their scale and scope, including export controls on sensitive technologies, restrictions on Russian elites and asset seizures, financial sanctions, immobilizing Russia’s central bank assets, and removing key Russian banks from SWIFT, with even more sanctions planned.”
Plummeting energy revenues thanks to the G7 oil price cap and Putin’s punctured natural gas gambit:
“The Russian economy has long been dominated by oil and gas, which accounts for over 50% of the government’s revenue, over 50% of export earnings, and nearly 20% of GDP every year.
In the initial months following the invasion, Putin’s energy earnings soared. Now, according to Deutsche Bank economists, Putin has lost $500 million a day of oil and gas export earnings relative to last year’s highs, rapidly spiraling downward.
The precipitous decline was accelerated by Putin’s own missteps. Putin coldly withheld natural gas shipments from Europe–which previously received 86% of Russian gas sales–in the hopes freezing Europeans would get angry and replace their elected leaders. However, a warmer-than-usual winter and increased global LNG supply mean Putin has now permanently forfeited Russia’s relevance as a key supplier to Europe, with reliance on Russian energy down to 7%–and soon to zero. With limited pipeline infrastructure to pivot to Asia, Putin now makes barely 20% of his previous gas earnings.”
Talent and capital flight:
“Since last February, millions of Russians have fled the country. The initial exodus of some 500,000 skilled workers in March was compounded by the exodus of at least 700,000 Russians, mostly working-age men fleeing the possibility of conscription, after Putin’s September partial mobilization order. Kazakhstan and Georgia alone each registered at least 200,000 newly fleeing Russians desperate not to fight in Ukraine.
Moreover, the fleeing Russians are desperate to stuff their pockets with cash as they escape Putin’s rule. Remittances to neighboring countries have soared more than tenfold and they rapidly attracted ex-Russian businesses. For example, in Uzbekistan, the Tashkent IT Park has seen year-over-year growth of 223% in revenue and 440% growth in total technology exports.
Meanwhile, offshore havens for wealthy Russians such as the UAE are booming, with one estimate claiming 30% of Russia’s high-net-worth individuals have fled.”
Russia will only become increasingly irrelevant as supply chains continue to adapt:
“Russia has historically been a top commodities supplier to the world economy, with a leading market share across the energy, agriculture, and metals complex. Putin is fast making Russia irrelevant to the world economy as it is always much easier for consumers to replace unreliable commodity suppliers than it is for suppliers to find new markets.
Supply chains are already adapting by developing alternative sourcing that is not subject to Putin’s whims. We have shown how in several crucial metals and energy markets, the combined output of new supply developments to be opened in the next two years can fully and permanently replace Russian output within global supply chains...
It appears Russia is well on its way toward its long-held worst fear: becoming a weak economic dependent of China–its source of cheap raw materials.”
The Russian economy is being propped up by the Kremlin:
“The Kremlin has had to prop up the economy with escalating measures, and Kremlin control is increasingly creeping into every corner of the economy with less and less space left for private sector innovation.
These measures have proven costly. Government expenditures rose 30% year-over-year. Russia’s 2022 federal budget has a deficit of 2.3%–unexpectedly exceeding all estimates despite initially high energy profits, drawdowns and transfers of 2.4 trillion rubles from Russia’s dwindling sovereign wealth fund in December, and asset fire sales of 55 billion yuan this month.
Even these measures of last resort have been insufficient. Putin has been forced to raid the coffers of Russian companies in what he calls “revenue mobilization” as energy profits decline, extracting a hefty 1.25 trillion ruble windfall tax from Gazprom’s corporate treasury with more raids scheduled–and forcing a massive 3.1 trillion ruble issuance of local debt down the throats of Russian citizens in the autumn.”
And more sanctions coming...
“Book mark that one for kazan I don’t think it will age well lol” (Post#76: How much do you want to bet Russia will have full control over those oblasts by the time the war is over?
The Ukrainian military is being fed into meat grinder daily. Ukrainian absolutely no ability to go on the offensive and there is no reason to believe the will before Russia clears out the annexed areas and fortifies them.)
I enjoy when FreshPrince pulls up some of Kazan’s greatest stikeouts from the past (with their ridiculous air of absolute certainty), but I can’t bring myself to care enough to keep track of such nonsense.
I’m also really interested to see how this Russian economy and the loss of foreign markets for their poorly performing weapons systems affect their ability to rebuild their weapon stocks as they deplete them and have them destroyed.
Without a foreign market to prop up Russian arms factories to help reduce domestic costs to replace tanks and aircraft and armor, Russia is going to be weakened for a very long time.
While the Western arms sector is booming and winning global markets, building factories, and getting new government contracts, Russia is destroying its military base and future.
“ I’m also really interested to see how this Russian economy and the loss of foreign markets for their poorly performing weapons systems affect their ability to rebuild their weapon stocks as they deplete them and have them destroyed.”
Of course, anything could happen, and no one can know the future. But the base case is that the war drags on to exhaust the old stockpiles, sanctions tighten, Putin (or his crime syndicate) maintain power, and the Russian State exerts increasing Soviet style Centralized control over the economy and imposes more political repression, while the standard of living in Russia declines pretty sharply. Novo North Korea.
They will likely have better weapons production capacity than North Korea, but less than the Soviet Union, even if they go full Soviet in prioritizing guns over butter. A lot of the Soviet defense industry was in the Ukraine.
For them to rebuild the full fleets and stockpiles that they expended during this war, would require draconian domestic belt tightening, that the population would be unlikely to support without repression, and lots of misinformation. Full replenishment would require several years, producing at much higher rates than they have since thee fall of the Soviet Union, while their revenues are significantly lower.
“I can’t bring myself to care enough to keep track of such nonsense.”
Well with his air of supreme arrogance he is just asking for it. And someone has to do it. Consider it a public service. Name calling embedded with the foolishness also is a motivator. If he would respectfully disagree i wouldnt bother.
“Name calling embedded with the foolishness also is a motivator. If he would respectfully disagree I wouldn’t bother.
I feel the same, to large degree. I would probably occasionally offer counter arguments, but respectfully, if he were respectful of others.
I guess his patriotic feelings for Russia make it too emotional for him.
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