Posted on 11/05/2022 5:54:10 AM PDT by Roman_War_Criminal
Something Has Snapped: Unexplained 2.3 Million Jobs Gap Emerges In Broken Payrolls Report A simplistic, superficial take of today’s jobs report would conclude that the red hot jump in nonfarm payrolls indicates a “strong hiring market” (just ignore the jump in the unemployment rate). Nothing could be further from the truth. Recall that back in August and September, we showed that a stark divergence had opened between the Household and Establishment surveys that comprise the monthly jobs report, and since March the former has been stagnant while the latter has been rising every single month. In addition to that, full-time jobs were plunging while part-time jobs were soaring.
Fast forward to today when the inconsistencies not only continue to grow, but in some cases have becoming downright grotesque.
(snip)
Alas, there is only so much the Department of Labor can hide under the rug because when looking at the abovementioned gap between the Household and Establishment surveys which we have been pounding the table on since the summer, it just blew out by a whopping 589K, the most since June’s 608K, as a result of the 261K increase in the number of nonfarm payrolls (tracked by the Household survey) offset by a perplexing plunge in the number of people actually employed which tumbled by 328K (tracked by Establishment survey).
(Excerpt) Read more at nationandstate.com ...
“Figures don’t lie but liars will figure.”
Thanks for posting this. I was able to read the whole thing this a.m. Another government obfuscation. When does SHTF with all this B.S. they feed us?
The last employment report before the election. Did anyone really expect the feds to report bad numbers?
Yep. Ranks right up there with the fibbers doctored crime stats. D’s get to point to it and say crime is on the decline. They don’t mention that the fibbers did not include 40% of the largest cities - NYC and LA were both left off, but used stats from places like Great Falls, MT and Bangor, ME.
He who controls the data controls the facts.
Cooking the books.
Employment figures and inflation measurements are complete hogwash and have been for a very long time.
They want to hide bad news like this so they can claim the recession started AFTER Republicans do well in the midterms.
The cooking of the books and the blame game are only relevant for the one percent of the population who pay attention to these things.
It is like a quarterback playing with their college ring while three linebackers are blitzing them from three sides.
Something Has Snapped: Unexplained 2.3 Million Jobs Gap Emerges In Broken Payrolls Report
In fact, as shown below, since March, the US has lost 490K full-time employees offset by an almost identical gain of 492K part-time employees, while 126K workers were forced to get more than one job over the same period.,/p>
Finally, the cherry on top: the number of Unemployed workers - also tracked by the Household Survey - jumped by 306K, rising to 6.059 million, the highest since February!
So what's going on here? The simple answer: there has been no change in the number of people actually employed, but due to deterioration in the economy, more people are losing their higher-paying, full-time jobs, and switching into much lower- paying, benefits-free part-time jobs, which also forces many to work more than one job, a rotation which picked up in earnest some time in March and which has only been captured by the Household survey. Meanwhile the Establishment survey plows on ahead with its politically-motivated approximations, seasonal adjustments, and other labor market goalseeking meant to make the Biden admin look good at least until after the midterms .
And since the Establishment survey is far slower to pick up on the nuances in employment composition, while the Household Survey has gone nowhere since March, the BLS data engineers have been busy goalseeking the Establishment Survey (with the occasional nudge from the White House especially with midterms looming) to make it appear as if the economy is growing strongly, when in reality all they are doing is applying the same erroneous seasonal adjustment factor that gave such a wrong perspective of the labor market in the aftermath of the covid pandemic (until it was all adjusted away a year ago). In other words, while the labor market is already cracking, it will take the BLS several months of veering away from reality before the government bureaucrats accept and admit what is truly taking place.
As we said back in August, "We expect that "realization" to take place just after the midterms, because the last thing the Biden administration can afford is admit the labor market is crashing in addition to the continued surge in inflation." We still hold on to this prediction: expect big negative payroll prints as soon as December.
Until after the mid-terms and Republicans sweep the House & Senate.
Then all the books will be mangically "uncooked" and Republicans blamed for everything.
Watch.
Thanks for posting. I kept asking and seeking why our economy is so bad but keeps adding jobs. This just makes sense especially since March we’ve only added 150k jobs but the paperwork shows we added 2.3 million. Mostly part time probably their second or third job to make ends meet.
The local Cumbys in a nice small town closed at 4 pm yesterday because of no staff.
Most all restaurants in the area are closed Sunday and Monday because of no staff.
“Thanks for posting this. I was able to read the whole thing this a.m. Another government obfuscation. When does SHTF with all this B.S. they feed us?”
As soon as Republicans take over congress, they will release the real numbers and blame the stupid voters for electing Republicans and causing it.
I think the article misses the real scandal, it isn’t that BLS is cooking the books, it is these tech companies waited until the last couple weeks to do layoffs so they wouldn’t show up in the BLS numbers before the elections.
We get a good employment number right before voting, then all the layoffs show up in next months number after GOP wins.
Just like all those Biden voters at 3:00 am. 2 million out of work folks show up, POOF, just like that!
Ah, yes.
The “preliminary” or “provisional” or “trail balance” results; the “unbiased, nonpolitical, ‘just the facts’” accountant and statistician’s magic “get-out-of-jail” card.
“ Yes, upon refinement, the numbers turned out to be significantly in error. But we told you at the time…”
When they are that far out, it’s not an error; it’s lying for political advantage.
The local Cumbys in a nice small town closed at 4 pm yesterday because of no staff.
Most all restaurants in the area are closed Sunday and Monday because of no staff.
Contractors are complaining about a lack of qualified people wanting to work.
Our best private grocery store has a shortage of butchers and is offering free training and tools for anyone wanting to work. Their in the store and online Deli is short of people.
A 50 something guy quit his job due to high overtime demands from the employer due to lack of qualified workers post Covid. He has had 3 employers contact him re great 40 hour packages in his first week of unemployment by choice.
A friend’s grand daughter became an official RN this summer.
She had a crummy jobs with a crummy hospital in the valley.
She got a good job working 3/10 days as a full week at a good local hospital. She is a bartender, 2 evenings a week at a good restaurant/bar combo.
A hard working young guy will be graduated early next year, with two engineering specialities, and he has a solid/written offer at 6 figures when he is graduated. He has basically worked on line or in the field with this employer for 3 plus years. He started during the Covid B$!
These people have good solid education and or skills,and the are not afraid to work hard. They will not kill themselves for the boss.
The local shipyard has been paying for pay and train ever since2 years before covid. They could see the boomer retirement hitting the. In the face.
Our culture has supported too many losers.
Too many non workers have been coockoos in the nest taking time and treasure from raising competent young adults.
We got what we paid for.
ADP has revised their process. New data cannot be compared to old data.
UBI of Yank has effectively been tested and failed the test.
Many people in the gig economy do not show up on traditional employment reports and other economic statistics. One feature of many in the gig economy is to “fly under the radar”.
A market economy can gradually adjust to changes. A central command economy cannot. Among other things, government action is always slow to act. The FED knew in Jan 2021 that Larry Summers and every honest economist was correct in saying that the American REscue Plan was a bad idea. It was totally contrary to everything that both the Austrians, Keynesians and every mainschool and fringe economic theory knew.
Thus, a command economy is often run by incompetents. They destroy the country, not because they hate it, but because they don’t understand it and are stupid fools.
But th Fed was slow to act until June 2022. Why? All the same, don’t blame the firefighter for the fire started by Biden Admin.
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