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Ukraine: military situation update with maps, July 10, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)

War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos

Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).

(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)

••denotes transcribed dialogue.

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Extras:
Cargo list: Confirmed Orc officers killed with date/ unit
https://topcargo200.com/

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••Russians only doing small probing attacks to keep their hand in the game.

••Targeting fuel & ammo dumps has created shock and pain on the Russian side; they have not been able to adjust so far. However, it is unclear if the Russians have been logistically paralyzed by this new tactic, or are they still doing a regrouping, or both happening at same time.

Russian sources say there is an extreme, extreme, extreme level of pain coming from these attacks. Pain, to the point that some of the Russian military planners say they have to hit command centers in Kyiv with tactical nukes. What these statements may mean is the ZSU has found an answer to Russian artillery and broken the Russian machine.

WiU remains skeptical if this is a long term solution, or that the ZSU can maintain this level of attacks.

••The answer for the Russians is to decentralize and disperse their ammo and fuel dumps, as the ZSU did when faced with a similar problem early on from the Russians. However to decentralize, the Russian Army needs to stop being the Soviet Army where everything is super centralized, and where lower level commanders and troops are super disempowered.

To that extent, the ZSU is exactly the same sort of Soviet Army - just a smaller version. Its remains to be seen how this situation plays out with the Russians. But there is no doubt as to the severe level of pain on the Russian side. In a week or so, the answer will present itself.

••Ukraine Minister announced plan to liberate the South; Ukraine is raising 1 million-man army, directed by Zelensky to retake the South and they will just execute according to his will.

This decision where to attack is driven by political and economic reasons. The economic reasons are the biggest driver because the Ukrainian oligarchs who influence a lot decisions need the attack to happen where their interests lie. These people are a “cancer on the society” and are the reason why Ukraine has become so defenseless in the first place.

An attack on the South is not necessarily where the ZSU should attack next, just where the oligarchs want it to occur.

That is the first problem. The second problem is the rasing of 1m army which means they are giving no indication about learning how to fight - its quantity over quality - a proposition the ZSU cannot win. ZSU can only win, to whatever extent that becomes, by learning how to be better and more efficient. But the ZSU leadership doesn’t want to learn and maybe, personally incapable of learning to how to fight and be more efficient.

And that’s a third problem, which also implies a very heavy reliance on heavy weapons from the West. Something that may or may not happen is sufficient quantities. With these problems and the lack of skilled new troops, means the proposed attack will suffer very heavy casualties - not to mention a public announcement to your enemy where you are going to attack next, creating a fourth problem.

An example of how not to do things

••Female Ukrainian official called on people in the Kherson & Zaporizhiza regions to leave as soon as possible to give the ZSU a free hand to attack any target, essentially not constrained by any civilian presence. This is probably the right call (this was done during WWII). But at the same time, the coming with the announced southern attack, it is bad timing.

This is the problem with Ukrainian leadership’s limitations - to put it very mildly.

••Economic Situation
Italian newspaper says that Germany is blocking non-interest bearing bonds to Ukraine government to the tune of US$9 billion. Seems to indicate some behind-the-scenes war between the Ukrainian and German governments.

Ukrainian government was pressuring the Canadian government no to return the turbine pump for Nordstream-1. So now N-1 is not working because the price of NG is so high. This created immense economic problems and pressures in Germany because the pump was not working while under repair in Canada. Canada was slow in returning the repaired pump due to Ukrainian pressure. Germany used Canada and the pump was returned.

Now is some sort of tit-for-tat game being played out behind the scenes between the two countries.

••Russia Foreign Intelligence Service
The Head of the Service, Nareskin, said publicly the West is waging a hybrid war against the Orcs. This is something that has been talked about internal in Russia - a proxy war against Russia by US and Europe. This is the first time this idea has been openly stated as a war between Russia and the West.

Most viewers should know by now that this is not a regional war, but a much bigger war that, hopefully, does not escalate into a true WWIII.

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Summary: No changes.
Russian troops are being resupplied with fresh reserves and regrouped.
Severe pain on the Russian side from rocket strikes by HIMARS MLRS.

Key areas:
- Izyum bridgehead: no changes.
- Popasna/Lysychansk area: No changes. -
Svitlodarsk area: no changes.
- Donetsk West: no changes
- Kherson bridgehead: no changes.

1. Kharkiv: No changes.
North of Kharkiv: Russia reports that ZSU commando groups are blowing up railroads in Bransk’ region, where there are lots of forests - perfect cover, as it was during WWII.

2. Izyum bridgehead. No changes.
••Small Russian probing attacks continue

3. Popasna/Lysychansk area: No changes.
••Lysychansk very quiet. HIMARS rear strikes may have paralysised Russians here.

4. Svtilodarsk area: No changes.

5. West of Donetsk: Avdiyivka and Maryinka. No changes.
••Small Russian probing attacks continue

6. Vugledar: No changes.

7. Velyka Novosilka - Gulyapole stretch of frontline. No changes.

8. Kherson bridgehead: No changes.
••Small Russian probing attacks continue