Posted on 10/18/2020 8:43:52 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Early voting data is showing positive signs for President Donald Trump and some troubling signs for Joe Biden.
Start off with the basic principle that there is expected to be more early, mail-in voting with Democrats, and more in-person, Election Day voting with Republicans voting for Trump.
So, one should expect the numbers of the early voting to weigh heavily in favor of the Democrats. Now, some states are tracking along like that.
But in some of the key states, turns out that isn’t the case, as NBC notes in their tracking of the early vote citing Target Smart.
In Texas, which some Democrats have deluded themselves into thinking might flip, Republicans are up by 11, 51%-40%. In Michigan, a critical battleground state, it’s 41% to 39%, Republicans. In Ohio, the numbers are looking even better, with 46%-41 of the returned ballots favoring the GOP. In Wisconsin, it’s 40%-38% in the requested ballots, Republicans. Arizona is tied at 36%.
Early voting results from Michigan and Wisconsin. Not sure if I’m missing something but this doesn’t make me optimistic that Biden takes back both these states. pic.twitter.com/JcWRiTpvur
— Johnny Farmer (@JohnnyFarmer69) October 17, 2020
You can check more of the results by state here.
Given that Trump voters are expected to come out in force on Election Day, that’s looking good, if Republicans are up or basically tied in the early voting in those states. A lot of Republicans were expected not to vote by mail but in person, because of concerns about the process.
Now, of course, it remains to be seen how many will turn out on Election Day. As we previously reported, there are a lot of metrics that lean toward a Trump win, from primary support to enthusiasm level, despite the fact that a lot of the polls are running heavily Biden. Give the prior history of most of those polls, one can’t put much trust in them.
Voter registration numbers have also shown more positive signs for the Republicans.
In Pennsylvania, for example, a blue-leaning state that Trump won by 44,292 votes in 2016, the Republican Party has since picked up nearly 200,000 voters.
JPMorgan says the gains suggest Trump could win the state by a margin of more than 240,000 in the upcoming election.
Similar progress in battlegrounds Florida and North Carolina suggest Trump may take those states by a larger margin than in his first campaign as well.
JPMorgan also believes a surge in the number of registered Republicans will tighten the race in New Mexico, but that the state will still go with Biden. On the flipside, a growing number of registered Democrats in Arizona will make the state close, but Trump should prevail.
FLORIDA: Democrats’ longtime voter registration edge is disappearing, down to just 134,000 over Republicans ahead of Election Day—closest margin in recent history.
In 2012, Democrats had a 535,987 voter edge & Obama won.
In 2016, Democrats had a 327,428 voter edge & Trump won.
— Nicole Sganga (@NicoleSganga) October 15, 2020
I find my self smiling more the past several days.
The Biden campaign knows what this means.
There are a lot of folks here wondering if the latest Hunter tapes matter.
My view is they matter a _lot_.
The Democrats have fallen far below their (and the polls) expectations on early voting (normally their strength).
The only way the sinking Biden campaign can save itself is to get out the vote between now and election day.
The Hunter tapes _will_ depress Democratic turnout, particularly with young people who know their way around the Internet and around the censors.
Most young people of all political persuasions _hate_ censors—they have been raised in the culture of freedom of information.
They will read the stories—and they will conclude that there is no way they will get out to vote for the dirty corrupt old man and his disastrous family.
I am _very_ confident we have this—now.
Agreeing with you. President Trump has build up a sound ground game with his rallies. His people are energized. Bidden has no ground game and no enthusiasm.
Such a good message I gotta post it THREE TIMES, you better BELIEVE IT!
“Most young people of all political persuasions _hate_ censors—they have been raised in the culture of freedom of information.
They will read the stories—and they will conclude that there is no way they will get out to vote for the dirty corrupt old man and his disastrous family.
I am _very_ confident we have this—now.”
If they won’t vote for Trump...
They should at least vote for Kanye!
Trump is going to win.
Biden is floundering and about to go under.
Bringing out Obozo will sink him for good!
LOL!
Where is Pelousy?
Busy stuffing ballot boxes in San Franpissco?
All of the water is rushing out now.....
Trump is going to win with around 350 EC votes and the left is going to scream foul. They have lied their asses off about the polls but will use these lies to demand the the actual vote just had to be wrong.
Liars are liars, and all democrats are habitual, compulsive, liars.
Trump is going to win with around 350 EC votes and the left is going to scream foul. They have lied their asses off about the polls but will use these lies to demand the the actual vote just had to be wrong.
Liars are liars, and all democrats are habitual, compulsive, liars.
Hopefully the GOP will emphasize that 100% of Rat senators endorsed Bidet. If none of the ones who are running denounce him and rescind their endorsement, they must be made to pay at the polls.
That’s great, but it’s the after election voting I’m most concerned about. The dems will kill it there 100% to zip.
OHIO PING!
Please let me know if you want on or off the Ohio Ping list.
Early Voting Numbers in Key States Are Surprising and Good News For Trump
Red State ^ | 10/18/2020 | Nick Arama
Posted on 10/18/2020, 11:43:52 PM by SeekAndFind
This is not good news.
Those Republican early voters are done voting.
Those democrat early voters will vote again on Election Day, under different names in different precincts. And the dead democrat voters haven’t voted yet.
If you think tptb are gonna let Trump back in the WH, you’re kidding yourself. They are losing big bucks without the kickbacks from Government largess. A lot of people are not happy.
It’s always about power and money. You do not matter.
Who are you addressing this to?
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