Posted on 06/26/2020 8:09:22 AM PDT by wrrock
Exactly four years ago today... media in frenzy over 12-point Clinton lead in polls .....
(Excerpt) Read more at twitter.com ...
I find these polls hard to believe.
One recent poll has Biden up 50 to 36%.
In 2016, Trump got 46% of the popular vote.
Just doing some simple math, are we really saying that over 20% of Trump voters in 2016 are going to vote for Biden instead?
Are there really significant numbers of Trump supporters from 2016, who are so frustrated with him that they would vote for Biden and Democrats?????
I think it’s going to be close, and a tough campaign. But I find it hard to believe that so many Trump supporters have abandoned him.
Today, because of the unique circumstances of 2020, Trump is the "assignable cause" of the national situation (fairly or unfairly), and it is easier to blame him. I suspect it will be much harder for him to overcome this deficit than 4 years ago.
Unfortunately people realize that even if they prefer Trump, do they really want another four years of all this BS, knowing most likely the Democrats will still control the House, if not the Senate, as well?
That clearly was the Democrats strategy, sending a not-so-subtle message that the “beatings will continue” until Trump is gone. I fear it may work.
Biden is an empty vessel right now who is hiding in his basement. Trump is going to carpet bomb Biden with negative ads, and once Biden is drawn back to the campaign trail, Trump is going to narrow the gap considerably.
It is not that they will vote for Biden, it is that the intensity of the anti-Trump vote is greater in 2020 than it was in 2016. So his supporters may be proportionally fewer today than in 2016.
I also suspect that voters who stayed home because of Hillary's baggage will not stay home this time. If the Dems come out in full force, it is all over for Trump.
I don’t think the gap is that big, but I think it’s hard to deny we’re in the doldrums: unrest continues and statues come down every day. No consistent information from the administration, no arrests for attacks on federal sites. Coronavirus “spiking” and “surging.” No administration message calming and explaining. Biden in hiding. The back up quarterback is always appealing if the starter is struggling
Just like the last time, the polls are part of the dem/msm propaganda strategy.
I agree that is a possibility, but I am not sure it will work. Nothing in Biden's roster of flaws will be enough to overcome the very visible damage to the nation under Trump's watch, which, fairly or unfairly, will be blamed on him.
I wish that were the case. It is not so.
Even Republican polls have Trump getting clobbered everywhere.
Last week, a Republican poll had him tied in Iowa, a state he won by 10% in 2016.
This week, a Republican poll has him down in WI by 14%.
Across the board, we are seeing a Trump rout, and I believe the polls more this time than in 2016.
Why do you believe the polls more this time?
Biden is incoherent I am positive tht once he is exposed it’s over for him.
How do I know. Well, when even the media who supports him admits this you know for sure. And when did the media do this one might ask?
Just this morning on CBS this morning with none other than always troubled snowflower Weiju Jiang leads in the Biden story.
The “clips” that the CBS editors spliced together of him reading his teleprompter and in order to get more than one intelligent sounding line required about 6 splices. They know it, they can’t even run him unedited even when using a teleprompter.
They know they are in trouble.
When Trump refused to act, people realized that the only way it would stop is if Trump is gone, because clearly the Democrats are controlling the mobs.
Basically, the American people agreed to pay the ransom.
What certainty do we have that Clinton ever had a 12 point lead? None.
The big reason polls were wrong in 2016 is that they did not correctly weigh the education factor, which turned out to be a bigger predictor of voting outcome than income or age or sex.
People without college education voted overwhelmingly for Trump. The 2016 polls missed that.
They have since corrected this mistake, or are supposed to correct it. The polls today supposedly correctly assign weights to the education factor. They are therefore more accurate.
We don’t know that Clinton ever had a 12 point lead. Maybe the polls were doctored in 2016 to show Hillary with a big lead. Maybe polls are being doctored now.
As soon as Big Mike is named Biden’s VP pick, it will be over for Trump. Sadly.
How do we reconcile these polls, with other recent job approval ratings for Trump, where job approval is in the area of 47 to 49% approval? How can Trump be so far behind Biden in the polls, when he also has some of the best job approval numbers of his presidency?
The liberal media does its poll dances and the handwringers start pacing the floor.
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