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TEMPERATURE AND THE CORONAVIRUS
Powerlineblog ^ | March 12, 2020 | Paul Mirengoff

Posted on 03/12/2020 8:22:39 PM PDT by lasereye

One of the key questions pertaining to the Wuhan cororavirus is whether warm weather will stop the pandemic. President Trump has suggested that it will. He says “a lot of people think that [the virus] goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in” and that “there’s a theory that, in April, when it gets warm — historically, that has been able to kill the virus.”

Actually, this particular virus is new, so that, strictly speaking, there is no history to rely on. As with so much surrounding the Wuhan coronavirus, we don’t know really know whether warm weather will stop this pandemic.

However, there is reason to think the virus might well “go away with the heat.” For one thing, we know that flu is seasonal, and the Wuhan coronavirus produces flu like symptoms.

In addition, this paper — “Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19” — presents evidence linking the Wuhan coronavirus with non-warm weather within a specific range. The authors say:

To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions only along a narrow east-west distribution roughly along the 30-50 N” corridor at consistently similar weather patterns (5-11 degrees Celsius and 47-79% humidity).

The paper includes a table of cities hard hit by the virus and the temperatures in those cities during the relevant time period. The authors say that in Bangkok, where the temperature has been much higher, the virus has not taken hold.

It should be noted, however, that the virus may be much more prevalent than has been reported in hot weather cities in areas like sub-Saharan Africa, where testing is very rare. And there have been more than 100 reported cases from Singapore.

It’s also important to remember that even if the Wuhan coronavirus goes away in April or May, it might well come back when the weather turns cold again. This possibility is discussed at FiveThirtyEight.

It’s very unlikely that a vaccine will be developed, tested, approved, and made available by the next flu season. By then, however, we will at least be in a better position to cope with the virus.


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: bloggers; chinavirusinfo; climate; coronavirus; disease; powerlineblog; temperature
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1 posted on 03/12/2020 8:22:39 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

That gives us a summer to stock up on toilet paper...


2 posted on 03/12/2020 8:24:43 PM PDT by 2banana (My common ground with islamic terrorists - they want to die for allah and we want to kill them.)
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To: lasereye

Isn’t it a variation of the common cold virus? Warm weather sends that on an out of town bus.


3 posted on 03/12/2020 8:51:26 PM PDT by Rembrandt (-a sure sign a Dem is lying - his lips are moving.)
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To: 2banana

I like the way you think.


4 posted on 03/12/2020 8:53:25 PM PDT by crusty old prospector
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To: Rembrandt

I haven’t heard that it’s like the common cold.


5 posted on 03/12/2020 8:54:02 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

The flu never really goes away...it just infects fewer. This might work the same way or might not. It’s track record in warm countries so far shows that it doesn’t much care.


6 posted on 03/12/2020 8:54:07 PM PDT by DouglasKC
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To: lasereye

“Actually, this particular virus is new, so that, strictly speaking, there is no history to rely on.”

I suspect that the main driver of how long the virus lasts in higher temp, higher humidity is based on the structure of the envelope.

So it should probably be the same as the SARS Coronavirus which did show a reduced viability with increased temp and humidity.


7 posted on 03/12/2020 8:54:48 PM PDT by TheLooseThread
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To: Rembrandt
Isn’t it a variation of the common cold virus? Warm weather sends that on an out of town bus.

The common cold is most often caused by a rhinovirus. This virus is a type of corona virus that is brand new to humanity.

8 posted on 03/12/2020 8:55:50 PM PDT by DouglasKC
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To: lasereye

Warmer Spring/Summer weather doesn’t directly kill the virus...more of a “human factors” issue...less people indoors for long periods, schools are out so kids not mixing, higher temps & humidity reduce aerosol/droplet transmission...droplets fall to floor/surfaces faster and small/aerosol droplets evaporate faster. Also, some “virii” are more seasonal than others...the MERS virus was not really affected by the seasons.


9 posted on 03/12/2020 9:01:06 PM PDT by Drago
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To: DouglasKC

Corona viruses have been around for awhile.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/types.html

“229E (alpha coronavirus)
NL63 (alpha coronavirus)
OC43 (beta coronavirus)
HKU1 (beta coronavirus)
Other human coronaviruses
MERS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS)
SARS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS)
SARS-CoV-2 (the novel coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19)

People around the world commonly get infected with human coronaviruses 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1.”


10 posted on 03/12/2020 9:04:54 PM PDT by TheLooseThread
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To: TheLooseThread
People around the world commonly get infected with human coronaviruses 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1.”

Yes, but not this one. It's only the second variant of this particular one (SARS) to infect humans.

A corona virus is called that because of it's appearance (Crown like). But not all corona viruses are the same. All buildings look like building but a dog house is much different than a skyscraper. This one is a building that has never infected humans before.

11 posted on 03/12/2020 9:13:09 PM PDT by DouglasKC
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To: lasereye

Lets say it doesn’t go away with warm weather and it spreads exponentially. If we can somehow keep our elderly population safe won’t most other people have been infected, recovered and be protected with antibodies? Yes, I know it can mutate but most people would still have protection until a vaccine can be produced, tested and available.


12 posted on 03/12/2020 9:22:15 PM PDT by willk (A bias news media is not a free press.)
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To: DouglasKC

We don’t know it hasn’t infected humans before. We know this particular strain hasn’t infected anyone that was tested since viruses were isolated and classified. It is possible this virus has been infecting populations in China for years but they have managed to cover it up or it may not have been as severe.


13 posted on 03/12/2020 9:26:58 PM PDT by Oklahoma
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To: lasereye

Dr. Marc Siegel: Is the coronavirus seasonal?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3822953/posts

Effects of Air Temperature and Relative Humidity on Coronavirus Survival on Surfaces
https://aem.asm.org/content/76/9/2712

The Effects of Temperature and Relative Humidity on the Viability of the SARS Coronavirus
https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/


14 posted on 03/12/2020 9:27:33 PM PDT by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
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To: lasereye; All
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15 posted on 03/12/2020 9:29:37 PM PDT by musicman (The future is just a collection of successive nows.)
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To: Oklahoma
We don’t know it hasn’t infected humans before. We know this particular strain hasn’t infected anyone that was tested since viruses were isolated and classified. It is possible this virus has been infecting populations in China for years but they have managed to cover it up or it may not have been as severe.

It's called a novel, or new, corona virus because scientists haven't seen it in humans. I'm sure they have ways of telling. I think it has something to do with what viruses leave behind in the human body.

16 posted on 03/12/2020 9:31:55 PM PDT by DouglasKC
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To: DouglasKC

Ewww ... Virus poo


17 posted on 03/12/2020 10:27:14 PM PDT by RainMan (rainman)
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To: lasereye

From the article:

“In addition, this paper — “Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19” — presents evidence linking the Wuhan coronavirus with non-warm weather within a specific range. The authors say:

To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions only along a narrow east-west distribution roughly along the 30-50 N” corridor at consistently similar weather patterns (5-11 degrees Celsius and 47-79% humidity).

The paper includes a table of cities hard hit by the virus and the temperatures in those cities during the relevant time period. The authors say that in Bangkok, where the temperature has been much higher, the virus has not taken hold.”

Interesting...


18 posted on 03/13/2020 1:52:45 AM PDT by WildHighlander57 ((WildHighlander57 returning after lurking since 2000)
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To: lasereye
they make flu vaccines every year to cover different strains....I don't see why we can't have a vaccine by this coming fall.....

as to hot vs cold.....I'm just using my common sense but it seems when April comes around one is outside more, more fresh air, more sun, and people are not crowded into homes passing back and forth their germs......the constant flow of dust from the air ducts when the furnaces is running can not be good for ones health....

19 posted on 03/13/2020 2:04:36 AM PDT by cherry
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To: willk

people do not live forever...eventually something will kill us...


20 posted on 03/13/2020 2:07:20 AM PDT by cherry
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