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Using the Delphi Technique to Achieve Consensus
Eagle Forum ^
| Nov 1998
| Lynn Stuter
Posted on 01/23/2015 4:51:03 PM PST by Ray76
click here to read article
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1
posted on
01/23/2015 4:51:03 PM PST
by
Ray76
To: Ray76
The very technique used in the Agenda 21 power grabs.
2
posted on
01/23/2015 4:53:39 PM PST
by
RetiredTexasVet
(Benghazi Clinton killed 4 & injured a dozen as SOS, imagine what she could do as CinC.)
To: Ray76
hegelian dialectic + delphi technique == where we are today
3
posted on
01/23/2015 4:56:02 PM PST
by
Secret Agent Man
(Gone Galt; Not averse to Going Bronson.)
To: Ray76
Liberals are very skilled at this. Great for you to post this so we are aware of when at a meeting or some other gathering when this is being used so we recognize it. The next step is for us to know how to use it to fight back against them.
To: Ray76
Long used progressive tactics. Edward Bernays is known as the godfather of PR used these tactics during the Wilson era. Unfortunately Joseph Goebbels found them quite useful as well.
Goebbels was using my book Crystallizing Public Opinion as a basis for his destructive campaign against the Jews of Germany. This shocked me.
-Edward Bernays. Biography of an Idea: Memoirs of Public Relations Counsel (1965)
5
posted on
01/23/2015 5:04:13 PM PST
by
cripplecreek
("For by wise guidance you can wage your war")
To: HereInTheHeartland
> The next step is for us to know how to use it to fight back against them.
That is addressed in the article.
6
posted on
01/23/2015 5:08:37 PM PST
by
Ray76
(al Qaeda is in the Oval Office (and John Boehner is their craven servant))
To: Ray76
Well, I’m a birther, so
I’m already a kook.
7
posted on
01/23/2015 5:16:27 PM PST
by
notted
To: Ray76
I’ve been Delphid by the best. Multiple times. F’em.
8
posted on
01/23/2015 5:17:03 PM PST
by
Drango
(A liberal's compassion is limited only by the size of someone else's wallet.)
To: Ray76
We have a few practitioners here on FR.
9
posted on
01/23/2015 5:17:30 PM PST
by
txhurl
To: Ray76
10
posted on
01/23/2015 5:21:35 PM PST
by
Jack Hydrazine
(Pubbies = national collectivists; Dems = international collectivists; We need a second party!)
To: Jack Hydrazine
11
posted on
01/23/2015 5:32:43 PM PST
by
Ray76
(al Qaeda is in the Oval Office (and John Boehner is their craven servant))
To: Drango
Me too. That’s why it is so important to have conviction.
To: Ray76
think for one’s self throws ‘em into a tizzy every time.
13
posted on
01/23/2015 5:34:49 PM PST
by
9thLife
("Life is a military endeavor..." -- Pope Francis)
To: txhurl
Yup. We’ll be seeing a lot of them in coming months declaring which progressive republicans “can win” and why conservative candidates can’t.
14
posted on
01/23/2015 5:35:38 PM PST
by
cripplecreek
("For by wise guidance you can wage your war")
To: kevslisababy
15
posted on
01/23/2015 5:35:46 PM PST
by
Vermont Lt
(Ebola: Death is a lagging indicator.)
To: Ray76
There only one antidote to this operation of evil:
Uncompromising eternal truth and principle.
That destroys them when exercised, every single time.
They either have to flee or kill you. They’re left with no other choices.
To: cripplecreek
Coming days... the race is already on :( :)
17
posted on
01/23/2015 5:48:47 PM PST
by
txhurl
To: txhurl
True enough, they’re already showing up.
18
posted on
01/23/2015 5:53:57 PM PST
by
cripplecreek
("For by wise guidance you can wage your war")
To: Ray76
With all due respect to the author, this article is very misleading.
To begin with, a procedure known as Delphi was developed at Rand Corporation back in the 1960s. It was intended as a means for extracting opinions from a panel of experts, without bringing them together. The original Delphi report from Rand presented a number of forecasts of technology, leaving some people with the mistaken view that Delphi was only a technology forecasting technique. Not so. Its uses are much broader.
The original Rand Delphi was operated as follows:
- panel members were given a blank sheet of paper and asked to respond with items relevant to the purpose of the panel (i.e., technological developments in the original Rand case.
- The items were consolidated into a single list, which was then presented to all panel members. The members then gave a numerical response for each item (in the case of a forecast, a date; if the Delphi were about something else the panelists might respond with percentages, magnitudes, or whatever was appropriate).
- Median and quartiles were calculated for each item, and these statistics were sent back to the panel, with the list of items and the statistics for each. If a panel member found himself in either the upper or lower quartile (i.e. 3/4 of the panel disagreed with him), he wrote a justification for his position.
- Items, recalculated medians and quartiles, and summaries of the reasons for increasing or decreasing the numbers, were sent to all panel members
- Panel members again made new estimates and gave reasons.
- At this point the people running the Delphi had a list if items, a range of numbers for each (e.g., dates if the Delphi was to be a forecast), and reasons why the numbers might by higher or lower.
At no point was any trickery or coercion applied to the panel members. They were free to respond as they wished.
Over the years I ran many Delphi sequences to generate forecasts of technology. I found Delphi to be a very useful technique for getting experts to give their opinions and their reasons for them.
Unfortunately, some people weren't content to leave well enough alone. They started using the trickery described in the article, called it Delphi, and called upon the reputation of the Rand Corporation to sell their trickery.
When you hear of someone using something called Delphi, find out whether it's the real thing (as I outlined above), or whether it's one of the fake methods that are intended to force a preferred outcome. If the latter, have nothing to do with it. If you're forced into it, point out the fakery.
19
posted on
01/23/2015 7:07:15 PM PST
by
JoeFromSidney
(Book RESISTANCE TO TYRANNY, available from Amazon.)
To: Ray76
need to be aware of this.
20
posted on
01/23/2015 8:13:47 PM PST
by
CPT Clay
(Follow me on Twitter @Clay N TX)
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