Posted on 01/25/2012 8:42:13 PM PST by bksanders
© mmxii ittm® Somewhere in Alabama: While I profess no skills in the field of "Political Projections" that fact does not preclude me from taking "my best guess"; so here goes.
I figure I am about as scientific and rational as any of the "smart guys"!
If you look at the Assumptions you will find how I arrive at my conclusions. I see no reason for Newt not picking up the lions share of the McCain vote.
I believe these voters reflected the "saner" side of the issue in 2008. (Of course Sarah didn't hurt the ticket)
Nor do I have any reason to believe that a substantial portion the voters who chose to go with the Mittiot did so for any other reason than a vote against McCain, hence the anti-McCain vote.
Santorum should pull some of the Huckabee vote and a share of both the Romney, McCain vote.
The Paul vote should be only slightly higher by virtue of pulling some of the Romney/McCain backers.
Even with a stronger turn out I only foresee a marginal bump and that in favor of the Speaker.
Am I correct in the delegate count?
Of course assuming I can equate the 2008 electorate with today's dynamic is "merely foolish".
Nothing can prepare an electorate like three plus years of the equestrian dung we have wallowed in.
Newt will remove the stench, Romney will hide it in a different stall.
I have signed on to phone bank for the Newt 2012 campaign so I hope to help attain these numbers. You are encouraged to join us at The Newt Network.
Of course this will mean less seat time Freeping…
Aren’t all the primary’s proportional this year?
I know the early ones weren’t “winner take all”
I think I read somewhere that the “Rules change” along the progression of the primary.
Who can keep up with this BS?
If Newt wins it by that much, Romney has to drop out simply because of the embarrassment.
“Aren’t all the primary’s proportional this year?
I know the early ones weren’t “winner take all””
Oddly enough, Florida decided to defy that mandate and move their primary up to late January in exchange for forfeiting half their delegates. So this makes it a fairly important state to win for the delegates, but more so for the momentum cause you have about 5 weeks between now and Super Tuesday.
It is true though that the delegates in the other states are proportional until April I think, so this is going to be a bloody protracted fight. I suspect though that Santorum may exit soon after Florida and long before Super Tuesday, which should give Newt a big edge as long as he doesn’t self-destruct.
So given all this, I think Mitt needs Florida much worse than Newt at this point, and if Newt wins, the talk about panic in the establishment will become a reality.
I don’t understand why our process is so convoluted.
Actually, I do...
I am sad that Perry’s “everyman talk did not carry”
All of the major candidates followed his leads on ideas.
Ah well. IT is what it is.
Nice. I have a template for the county level if you want to break it down that way.
However, turnout will probably be projected to be anywhere from 2.1-2.3 Million. If the percentages hold like they did in SC, Newt got 75% of the increase in turnout, to 17% for Santorum, 7% for Paul, and only 1% for Romney.
My other question is how do you divide up the 2008 Rudy Vote? I have an 70/30 Split on the McCain vote in favor of Gingrich and a 60/40 Split on the Huckabee vote in favor of Santorum. Although Thompson and Hunter are out, they still had votes, so I gave those in 90/10 proportion to Gingrich just like I did in SC.
In regards to the Rudy vote, I gave 50% to Romney and the other 50% to Paul. This is the hardest vote to allocate, especially the Hispanic vote as they seem to vote en masse for one candidate over the other, so I don’t know. What I am getting, though, is the same percentages, only Romney and Gingrich reversed because of the distribution of the 2008 Rudy votes. But I just can’t tell. Maybe will know a little bit more before Tuesday.
Thanks bk! I’m signing up for the Newt Network tomorrow.
Thanks bk! I’m signing up for the Newt Network tomorrow.
I agree. What happened IMHO was that expectations were very high when Perry made the decision to get into the race. His initial momentum was very strong. But his debate performance didn't live up to those inflated expectations, and it basically doomed his candidacy.
It's a shame because, while not definitely committed to Perry, I feel he would have made a very good president. Perhaps another day.
This one will be a nail-biter folks. Tonight RealClearPolitics has Romney retaking a slight lead (1.2%). With Newt being hammered with an unceasing litany of negative ads, we can only hope that Floridian GOPers see through it.
Newt had an interview with Hannity tonight. It took a long time to post the interview and now I know why. Fox cut out the part where Newt said he was found innocent of the 84 ethics charges in the 90’s. Fox also cut out the part where Newt said Romney has investments in Fannie and Freddie and also has lobbyists for Fannie and Freddie in his attack ad against Newt. This is the reason the public is having a hard time getting the facts. Fox is making sure they don’t!
The fellows record is strong.
Didn’t you give projections before the SC vote? As I recall they were on the money.
How about worse case scenario projections? If for example Latino turn out is even bigger for Romney etc, do you still see Newt winning?
Lastly, I know you said this, but what did Romney get last time in Florida?
Would be great if Guiliani were to endorse Newt now. If Santorum were to drop out it would be a Tsunami
The Florida Secretary of State has released the official results showing that John McCain is the winner.[8]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Counties | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John McCain | 701,761 | 36% | 45 | 57 |
| Mitt Romney | 604,932 | 31.03% | 18 | 0 |
| Rudy Giuliani | 286,089 | 14.68% | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Huckabee | 262,681 | 13.47% | 4 | 0 |
| Ron Paul | 62,887 | 3.23% | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Thompson* | 22,668 | 1.16% | 0 | 0 |
| Alan Keyes | 4,060 | 0.21% | 0 | 0 |
| Duncan Hunter* | 2,847 | 0.15% | 0 | 0 |
| Tom Tancredo* | 1,573 | 0.08% | 0 | 0 |
| Totals | 1,949,498 | 100% | 67 | 57 |
* Candidate dropped out of the race prior to primary.
“I am sad that Perry’s “everyman talk did not carry”
All of the major candidates followed his leads on ideas.
Ah well. IT is what it is.”
I’m right there with you on that. I decided on Perry right before the Iowa caucus and I truly thought he would make a turnaround. I’m alright with Newt, but it’s just a lot of baggage to look past. I’ve concluded that our once great country no longer deserves a POTUS like Perry.
So now we’re stuck with what we have. It’s too late for anyone else to jump in, and a brokered convention is highly unlikely. We just got to go with the least flawed horse out there, and in my view there’s no question that’s Newt.
PLEASE CHEER ME UP. DOES NEWT HAVE A PRAYER?
CAN YOU GIVE US A SCENARIO WHERE THERE IS A 50/50 SPLIT OF THE MCCAIN VOTE, NEWT GETS 80/20 OF THE CONSERVATIVE OR DUNCAN, THOMPSON, GUILIANI ETC VOTE, ROMNEY GETS 75% OF THE LATINO VOTE AND SEE WHAT WE GET? A WIN IS A WIN. CAN NEWT EDGE THIS ONE OUT?
I didn’t watch the debate last night because I was out. DIdn’t tape. Haven’t read any of the posts. Depressed as hell from yesterday.
Clearly, Ann Coulter is behind Drudge’s posting of the anti Newt articLES.
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