Posted on 12/10/2011 5:31:04 AM PST by Kaslin
Newt Gingrich is in for a rough ride.
Newt Gingrich has huge leads nationally and in Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida. He’s creeping up on Romney in New Hampshire. There is only one more debate featuring all the candidates left before the January 3 caucus in Iowa, a mere three weeks away. This means that Saturday is do-or-die for every other candidate. They must all bring down Gingrich, and they won’t do it gently.
Look at Gingrich’s poll numbers to get an idea of the task ahead for his rivals. The RealClearPolitics poll averages show him ahead by about 12 points nationally, 12 points in Iowa, 21 points in South Carolina, and the latest poll out of Florida has him 13 points ahead of Romney. In New Hampshire, Romney is ahead by an average of 12 points, but the momentum from a Gingrich victory in Iowa could make it close.
That means his rivals need Gingrich to suffer a double-digit reduction in support over three weeks, especially those that are dependent upon performing well in Iowa. This will be hard, but not impossible. Polls show that about 55% of likely voters in Iowa and South Carolina, 48% in New Hampshire, and 53% in Florida are willing to change their minds. This suggests that tonight’s debate is going to be very rough on Gingrich.
Gingrich says he won’t be an “attack dog” against the others and this is a wise strategy. He got this far by minimizing his scuffles with rivals. The criticisms of Romney are already well-known and bringing them up won’t do any good. His main weakness — and Romney’s biggest strength — is electability. If Gingrich mounts a swift and persuasive defense against the charges brought against him tonight, primary voters will become more confident that he can take on Obama. It will also arm Republicans with rebuttals to the future attacks he will face if he is the nominee. His goal tonight is to appear like a winning general election candidate.
Mitt Romney is going on the offensive against Gingrich. He is describing him as a Washington “insider,” hoping to leverage anti-establishment sentiment in his favor. Romney will criticize him on immigration and his leadership as speaker of the House to depict him as an ineffective and unstable leader. Romney will make the case that Gingrich is a visionary, but is unprepared to implement that vision. He’ll also emphasize his strong family relationships in order to bring attention to Gingrich’s personal baggage.
Romney’s campaign is going after Gingrich personally, but it is questionable whether Romney will do that on stage and risk it backfiring on him. In a conference call this week, former New Hampshire Governor John Sununu and former Missouri Senator James Talent harshly criticized Gingrich. They called him “irrational,” inconsistent, and self-absorbed. It will be hard for Romney to artfully do this himself tonight, so he may continue to rely on surrogates. If his campaign can make voters feel like Gingrich is pompous and condescending, Romney may be able to turn Gingrich’s intelligence into a liability.
Ron Paul has put out the most vicious attack ad on Gingrich. Its message is that Gingrich is basically corrupt and it hits him for supporting an individual health care mandate. In recent days, Paul has called him a “counterfeit conservative” and says he must “expose” him. This language indicates that this will be his most confrontational debate yet and for the first time, he’ll have most of his rivals backing him up
Michele Bachmann has been the harshest towards Gingrich in person. She has gone so far as to call him (and Romney) a “frugal socialist” and accuse him of being a “poster child for crony capitalism.” Her main criticism of him on policy has been his, in her words, “long history of supporting amnesty.” She also says he’s gotten rich off of “influence-peddling” and questions his credentials as a conservative.
At the same time, she’s been changing her style to be more like Gingrich. During her speech to the Republican Jewish Coalition on Wednesday, she adopted his promise to authorize the movement of the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem immediately after the inauguration. She’s also become more of a policy wonk, throwing out details, facts, and statistics to show her depth of knowledge. She is willing to go toe-to-toe with Gingrich and she can fight. Ask Tim Pawlenty.
Rick Santorum is more hesitant to go after his long-time friend, but is the only candidate specifically calling out Gingrich on his personal history and for having an oversized ego. In interviews where he is asked about Gingrich’s baggage, Santorum has no problem saying, “Character is definitely an issue.” He says that leaders must exercise humility and that voters must consider how a candidate handles success.
On policy, he’s focused on Gingrich’s views on illegal immigration and criticizes him for putting social issues in “the back of the bus” as speaker. Santorum, unlike the others, may be able to wait to swing because he and Gingrich are the only two scheduled participants in the December 27 Newsmax debate with Donald Trump as the moderator. If the event is not canceled, that will be Santorum’s time to draw a sharp contrast.
Rick Perry says he’ll stay above the fray and that he’s counting on Romney and Gingrich to knock each other out. His main objective tonight is to compete with Gingrich over the evangelical vote. He is the candidate that has come the closest to bringing up Gingrich’s three marriages. “I didn’t make an oath just to my wife. I made an oath to God when I married my wife,” Perry recently said. He may make that point again tonight, even though it could come off as too low of a blow.
Jon Huntsman has chosen to campaign in New Hampshire instead of take part in tonight’s debate in Iowa. It is puzzling why a candidate longing for media attention would forfeit the exposure. However, he will have an opportunity to contrast himself with Gingrich on Monday when the two have a Lincoln-Douglas-style debate.
Gingrich will have the biggest target on his back tonight that any candidate has had so far.
Gingrich needs to ask one question and the primaries are over.
“Why do the Democrats want Romney to be the Republican candidate?”. If they give him enough time before cutting off his mike, he could also ask why the media is attacking every Republican candidate except Romney.
I would love to hear the answer.
Romney is disliked by everyone but his little cadre of loyal supporters. He is NOT electable IMO.
The also-rans should reconsider the ‘attack’ tactic.
By attempting to destroy Newt, they will (and should) appear to be sore losers. If you cannot stand on your own ability, principles, success and self-confidence; personal destruction of your opponents is a distraction - NOT PRESIDENTIAL!!!!
The emphasis (& Newt understands it) should be on how each candidate would undo the last 3 years of the Obomination.
Of course the media is promoting the ‘smash-mouth extreme fighting’ aspect of the GOP primaries - while leaving Obama to appear ‘statesmen-like’. Dumb Pubbies.
Electability? Maybe these authors, and the GOP Political Machine, should try reading the polls. Gingrich and Romney do about the same against 0 in the head to head polls. Other then his standing in the head to head polls, what proof is there that Romney is "electable"?
If Mitt attacks with his pompousness - and Bachmann with her guardacil retardatude - and Santorum with his snark - all Newt has to do is remain calm and re state that all 8 (now 7) of the candidates are far superior to Obama - then he will double his lead.
If Newt feels compelled to counter attack, he might really step in it.
Attacks have simply backfired this entire cycle. Attack on each other that is. Attacks on the media and Obama have worked.
Romney will lead the GOP Establishments last gasp effort tonight to try to derail Gingrich. Today’s hit piece by Peggy Noonan has set the stage. I expect Romney to be a lot more aggressive than he was with establishment McCain 4 years ago.
At the same time, you will see those who are about to drop out make their own last stand to try to gain some traction. Tonight’s debate should be interesting. I hope that they do not lose focus of the big picture and give the Dems the bloodbath that they crave.
The Libs are scared to death of Gingrich and for good reason.
I’d like to hear someone ask Newt about his new book.
“His main weakness — and Romney’s biggest strength — is electability.”
Reagan’s biggest problem in 1980 was also electability...and we know how that turned out. Reagan was going to BLOW UP THE WORLD, as the Dems kept repeating and much of the public believed.
We actually gave ‘electability’ a chance in 2008. We ran the most experienced, moderate, Republican we could find. And what did we get for it? A president who is the least experienced and most radical to EVER step foot in the White House.
My point is that, maybe, if it’s a 2-man race, Romney might be a strong candidate. But it will not be a 2-man race. There will be a THIRD PARTY, and it will be a very strong third party candidate, if Romney’s on top. And I suspect that many FReepers and other conservatives will walk to that party (I certainly will), if we are given, essentially, another McCain.
So the political calculations will be different this time around - we WILL NOT suck up to the establishment in 2012, not again.
And as to attacks from others...who are the others that will be there. Huntsman said no, Perry and Bachmann said no. I can't remember is Santorum will be there or not.
And Paul is just plain nuts...but I do plan a drinking game based on whether or not his eyebrows fall off or just go astray.
Someone explain to me slowly, because I have trouble figuring things out, why in the debates the person to bring down has always the contender to Romney's lead?
The media has pushed this...heck, even conservatives have been pushing this.
NO ONE ever writes article after article against Romney. No one slings truckload after truckload of sheisse at Mittens. No one has commentaries on TV against Romney. The conservative geniuses in our galaxy of stars...Coulter, Krauthammer, et al...all overtly or covertly belittle everyone except Romney.
Perhaps they simply believe that Gingrich, Cain, Perry, Bachmann, Pawlenty - name any candidate - has not a prayer of a chance to win, so they default to Romney.
Just maybe, though, they are all read into the same sheet, members of the same club, advocates for the same direction or objective.
Perhaps there is a "party within the party" that they belong to.
And we don't.
Who the heck is Ryan Mauro and why should we care what he says?
I have to laugh every time I see someone trying to compare Newt to Reagan. Reagan was tall, slender and very handsome. He had an engaging personality and people loved him on a personal basis. Newt is short, fat and looks like an ancient Pillsbery Doughboy, he waddles when he walks, has a little girls voice, and the most memorable thing about him is his vicous temper and how easy he was to demonize.
Maybe they can all answer this question. Who in the #€|| is Romney anyway? Talk about a candidate who has not been vetted, well it is Mitt Romney.
Is America ready for a knee jerk Socialist who wears Magic Underwear" and thinks he's a good enough person that someday he will become a God over his own planet? Has anyone asked him about that?
I have no doubt Newt will handle this brilliantly.
The candidates should be very careful of backfire.
Reagan wasn’t a manipulative bottom feeder just waiting for his next chance to sell us out.
Don’t worry, the democrats will not forget to ask those questions.
I believe the new book is a collection of many people’s ideas to acheive “green” energy and get the country off oil.
I don’t have a problem with that. It would be great if we could end all dependence on oil. The big problem is the government mandating it... which Newt is against.
I don’t think Newt makes any “judgements” in the book, only gives press to other’s ideas.
That’s the way I’ve heard the book described.
I would love to hear the answer to that one too.
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