He can arrive at the convention with fewer delegates than needed, and wrestle them out of the competition in under an hour. You have to know that. Do you think a tyro like Cain could stop him? What if the primaries result in, roughly, 40-20-15-15-10? He could take that majority he needs, with a phone call.
I do not understand how anyone here cannot read the writing on the wall.
There won’t be 5 candidates by, at the latest, mid-February (with all the state delegations moving up their primaries/caucuses). Then any pledged delegates are free to vote for whomever.
I’ve tried to come up a succinct table/post, but the system is so convoluted that it’s almost impossible. Here’s a small bet:
Cain wins Iowa (after all, Huckabee won Iowa in 2008).
Romney wins New Hampshire (close to MA).
Cain squeaks out a victory in Florida and goes on to take most of the South (Huckabee won IA, KS, TN, GA, WV, AL, AR - we can expect the Southerner and social conservative Cain to do as well).
Once Perry drops out, expect TX to go to Cain.
Not an easy path for Cain, but no reason to hold our heads just yet.